My rant on being undefeated (and the stress involved)

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rydawg5

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Feb 7, 2011 11:17 AM
im thinking people have never taken a statistics class.

is it hard to undefeated? yes, extremely but it does not affect winning or losing in the tournament.

"getting a loss out of the way" is simply illogical.

if osu is involved with 6 "last shot wins" games this year, you would assume they win 3 and lose 3. you would want to get the 3 losses early if this were the case.

however, in each game itself, the winning shot is a 50/50 chance. if the buckeyes win 5 consecutive 50/50 games, game 6 is still 50/50 to win or lose in a last shot game.

its not like a purdue shooter magically is 90 percent likely to hit a fadeaway last second jumper simply because a nw, wisky, mich st, mich, and iowa guys all missed theirs.

its hard to do but no game is predicated on a past game for the probability of winning or losing..

education felllas..... education
Feb 7, 2011 11:17am
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FatHobbit

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Feb 7, 2011 11:25 AM
rydawg5;668274 wrote:however, in each game itself, the winning shot is a 50/50 chance.
You serious clark? I would think it would depend on the shooter and where he's taking the shot from.
rydawg5;668274 wrote:education felllas..... education

lol
Feb 7, 2011 11:25am
ytownfootball's avatar

ytownfootball

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Feb 7, 2011 11:29 AM
education...lol

You're missing the point of what it is and what a late loss prior to going into the tourney means. It has far less to do with statistics than it does with a re-focusing of effort. Teams that spend a lot of time being undefeated also hear a good amount of their hype, how good they are, unstoppable, unbeatable yada, yada, yada....a loss knocks them down a peg and gives them a reality check. Not a bad thing at all.

That said, not every team is susceptible to this phenomena, yeah it's been 35 years, but it's possible. It all comes down to remaining focused and not buying into the hype. That's on Matta. If he can keep them grounded mentally, there's no reason they shouldn't be able to go without a loss.
Feb 7, 2011 11:29am
R

rydawg5

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2,639 posts
Feb 7, 2011 11:29 AM
let me dumb it down a notch. in a 50/50 type game. replace that with shot.

everything else is voodoo pyscho babble
Feb 7, 2011 11:29am
R

rydawg5

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2,639 posts
Feb 7, 2011 11:31 AM
every battle refocuses you. you dont have to lose for this voodoo hex to be lifted from your pyshco bullshit
Feb 7, 2011 11:31am
R

rydawg5

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Feb 7, 2011 11:33 AM
the only magical formula is winning those 50/50 games individually
Feb 7, 2011 11:33am
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ytownfootball

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Feb 7, 2011 11:37 AM
I don't think you know what the fuck you're talking about.
Feb 7, 2011 11:37am
R

rydawg5

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Feb 7, 2011 11:40 AM
oh..
Feb 7, 2011 11:40am
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ytownfootball

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Feb 7, 2011 11:43 AM
rydawg5;668316 wrote:oh..
if osu is involved with 6 "last shot wins" games this year, you would assume they win 3 and lose 3. you would want to get the 3 losses early if this were the case.

however, in each game itself, the winning shot is a 50/50 chance. if the buckeyes win 5 consecutive 50/50 games, game 6 is still 50/50 to win or lose in a last shot game.
Yep.
Feb 7, 2011 11:43am
R

rydawg5

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Feb 7, 2011 11:45 AM
im glad could expand ur knowledge
Feb 7, 2011 11:45am
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ytownfootball

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Feb 7, 2011 11:49 AM
That was not a compliment chief, I don't have the slightest clue WTF you're even trying to say here.

I assume it's some psycho babble you're claiming others are using.
Feb 7, 2011 11:49am
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FatHobbit

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Feb 7, 2011 1:14 PM
rydawg5;668274 wrote:if osu is involved with 6 "last shot wins" games this year, you would assume they win 3 and lose 3. you would want to get the 3 losses early if this were the case.

however, in each game itself, the winning shot is a 50/50 chance. if the buckeyes win 5 consecutive 50/50 games, game 6 is still 50/50 to win or lose in a last shot game.

I get what you're saying now. You just didn't explain it very clearly. If they have a 50% chance of winning and they win 5 in a row they still have a 50% chance of winning the next game.

That's fine for a hypothetical, but I'm not sure it really applies in a real world situation. There is a lot more involved here than flipping a coin.
Feb 7, 2011 1:14pm
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ytownfootball

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Feb 7, 2011 1:18 PM
FatHobbit;668440 wrote:I get what you're saying now. You just didn't explain it very clearly. If they have a 50% chance of winning and they win 5 in a row they still have a 50% chance of winning the next game.

That's fine for a hypothetical, but I'm not sure it really applies in a real world situation. There is a lot more involved here than flipping a coin.
Exactly, the premise is fine but there are too many variables to EVER assume a 50/50 shot at anything relating to college basketball, especially a buzzer beater.
Feb 7, 2011 1:18pm
R

rydawg5

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Feb 7, 2011 1:33 PM
the scenario was simply to show the point.

winning or losing doesntt affect the current game you are in.
Feb 7, 2011 1:33pm
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Fly4Fun

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Feb 7, 2011 2:36 PM
The people that make the statistics argument saying it is more likely with everyone win that the next will be a L do not have any idea how statistics work... let alone basketball which isn't based completely on statistics much like every human interaction.

The people calling for a loss. Are you telling me that if you knew nothing about two teams besides their record you would take a team with 2 L's over an undefeated team to potentially run the gauntlet in a 64/65 team tourny? I know sure as hell I'd rather take the undefeated team.
Feb 7, 2011 2:36pm
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ptown_trojans_1

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Feb 7, 2011 3:11 PM
My stats argument is that no one has fully gone through a season unbeaten in over 35 years. The odds of OSU going unbeaten this year are extremely slim. It could happen, but I highly doubt it.
So, from that, if OSU is going to lose (and I don't want them, but stat wise they are due), I would rather see it now, than during the tournament.

I'm accepting OSU will lose as a given, because of the low probability they will finish unbeaten with the title. Given, they will lose, I'll rather get it out of the war now, finish the season with a title than 1 loss that occurred in the title game.

Fly 4 Fun, the odds of an unbeaten getting that far is slim to none. When was the last unbeaten team to make it to the title game?
Feb 7, 2011 3:11pm
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FatHobbit

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Feb 7, 2011 3:18 PM
ptown_trojans_1;668608 wrote:When was the last unbeaten team to make it to the title game?

I'm would be curious to know how often does a team make it through the regular season unbeaten? With one loss? Two losses? And then how often did those teams go on to win the title? (I wouldn't even know where to start to look that info up or I would do it myself.)
Feb 7, 2011 3:18pm
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ytownfootball

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Feb 7, 2011 3:22 PM
You could also argue that seeing an undefeated team is due, like an eruption of a volcano dormant for years...it's going to happen.
Feb 7, 2011 3:22pm
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ptown_trojans_1

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Feb 7, 2011 3:23 PM
ytownfootball;668639 wrote:You could also argue that seeing an undefeated team is due, like an eruption of a volcano dormant for years...it's going to happen.

Sure, the NFL has the same argument and we saw the Patriots. Odds caught up with them and finished with just 1 loss, the Super Bowl.
Feb 7, 2011 3:23pm
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ptown_trojans_1

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Feb 7, 2011 3:24 PM
FatHobbit;668627 wrote:I'm would be curious to know how often does a team make it through the regular season unbeaten? With one loss? Two losses? And then how often did those teams go on to win the title? (I wouldn't even know where to start to look that info up or I would do it myself.)

Memphis a few years ago had 1 loss going into the title game-and then they lost to Kansas in a great game.
Other than that, I think most of the teams have 1-2 loses usually.
Feb 7, 2011 3:24pm
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ytownfootball

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Feb 7, 2011 3:25 PM
ptown_trojans_1;668644 wrote:Sure, the NFL has the same argument and we saw the Patriots. Odds caught up with them and finished with just 1 loss, the Super Bowl.

No....that's the curse of Mercury Morris.
Feb 7, 2011 3:25pm
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ptown_trojans_1

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Feb 7, 2011 3:29 PM
ytownfootball;668651 wrote:No....that's the curse of Mercury Morris.

lol, yeah forgot about ole Morris.
Feb 7, 2011 3:29pm
R

rydawg5

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Feb 7, 2011 3:58 PM
cavemen logic
Feb 7, 2011 3:58pm
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FatHobbit

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Feb 7, 2011 4:02 PM
ptown_trojans_1;668648 wrote:Memphis a few years ago had 1 loss going into the title game-and then they lost to Kansas in a great game.
Other than that, I think most of the teams have 1-2 loses usually.

So by that logic wouldn't it be better to have 2 losses going into the tournament?
Feb 7, 2011 4:02pm
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ytownfootball

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Feb 7, 2011 4:04 PM
Logic doesn't apply to college basketball...in tournaments...late in the season...at all


That's why you look like you're licking the windows on the short bus.
Feb 7, 2011 4:04pm