Thoughts of John Fay:


No cuts today and a look at the roster Posted by jfay March 27th, 2010, 8:07 pm

The Reds made no cuts Saturday. They remain at 40 on the roster, 15 over the limit (actually 39; you can’t count Edinson Volquez).

“We probably won’t do anything until after Las Vegas,” Dusty Baker said, referring the day-night doubleheader Wednesday.

“It’s going to be tough,” Walt Jocketty said. “We’re probably going to go right down to the end.”

As I see it:

–Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and Aaron Harang are locks for the rotation. Francisco Cordero, Nick Masset, Arthur Rhodes, Daniel Ray Herrera and Jared Burton are locks for the bullpen. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen, Jay Bruce, Chris Dickerson, Drew Stubbs and Jonny Gomes are locks among the position players. The two catchers will Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez. That’s 19.

For the other six spots: You’ve got Wladimir Balentien and Laynce Nix going for one outfield position. You’ve got Drew Sutton, Paul Janish, Chris Burke, Aaron Miles, Juan Francisco and Miguel Cairo going two infield positions. (Wilkin Castillo could be in that equation as well as catcher/utility guy). And you’ve got Micah Owings, Mike Lincoln, Logan Ondrusek, Carlos Fisher, Kip Wells, Matt Maloney and Justin Lehr going for two bullpen spots.

As for the fifth spot, it will be Mike Leake, Travis Wood or Aroldis Chapman. The two who don’t make it will start in the minors.

Three things to remember: Balentien is out of options. Miles is guaranteed $2.7 million and Lincoln is guaranteed $2 million.


I agree with Fay on the 19. For the six, I favor Nix, Janish, Sutton, Owings, Lincoln, and whoever wins as the opening day 5th starter. However due to the options and $2.7 millions it cost in the good deal to get rid of Taveras, I'm guessing it will be Balentein instead of Nix, and Miles instead of Sutton. Then if either of them prove unworthy, they'll be released as the season proceeds. On the 5th starter, I'm thinking Leake. Dusty says Chapman needs work on bunting and baserunning. How is he going to get that? Are they going to have him DH in Louisville? Looks like Louiville will be stocked with players that can be called on with injuries and ineffectiveness of the 25.

I'd love to see some more of Juan Francisco. The dude seems like a stud. However with Rolen on the team, that mucks things up. I know the Reds said they wanted to play him in the OF some, but I don't know how that has worked. (That's the bad thing about spring training... unless you like the Yanks or Sawks, you have no clue as to what is going on.) I see him starting in Louisville.

I see Chapman also starting in the minors, I still think the Reds will play the "safe" card with him. As for the others, I haven't been able to keep up enough to know.

Chapman pitched an inning yesterday giving up one hit and striking out two. He said he felt very good afterward. I still think he is in the mix, but a lot will be determined by his next outing.

As far as the other five spots, I would see Balentein, Miles, Nix, Owings and Lincoln. However, I could see Lincoln getting DFA'd in favor of Carlos Fisher. All of these guys could easily be replaced if they don't perform early. There are a lot of other younger guys that have earned a shot if the vets can't hack it. You gotta love the competition for these last spots that has been missing the last few years.

As I stated in the thread about Chapman, he would only get 3 starts between Opening Day and May 15th. I think you start him off in Louisville, where at least he can be working. I think Travis Wood will get the 5th starter spot out of spring training.

^^^agree...he's the classic example of the guy you give extended spring training/minor league seasoning, and give him the call-up late May, early June.
Once he is up, he will be up for the rest of the season. Too much upside to leave in AAA longer than that.

I would hate to see Balentein go, but i think having Nix as a LH bat off the bench is needed. You don't need Gomes, Balentein, and Owings on the bench if Dickerson starts in left some. I'd prefer to see Balentein stay and take some AB's from Bruce so it pushes Jay.

As for the infield Janish has to be there for late inning D. Sutton, Burke, Francisco, Cairo have no shot. Sutton is a career AAA player, Francisco is still way too raw defensively, the other 2 are in camp only in case of injury imo. Miles by default.

Leake or Wood is getting the 5th spot, I really have no clue how this goes. I'd be shocked to see Leake go straight to the bigs without any real minor league experience, but his stuff is probably better than Wood's.

Ondrusek will probably start as the closer for Louisville but he will be up by May with Chapman. Lehr didn't get a shot at all this spring so he's gone, Wells is gone for sure. It will come down to if they want to keep Lincoln due to his salary, or dump him and go with Fisher as a 1-2 inning guy or keep Maloney as a long reliever. Not sure why they would keep him and Owings though unless Owings is used more as an offensive weapon than last season. I'm hoping Bray makes a comeback too. He could really help this team and possibly allow Rhodes to be moved for a nice piece at the deadline.

dave wrote: I would hate to see Balentein go, but i think having Nix as a LH bat off the bench is needed. You don't need Gomes, Balentein, and Owings on the bench if Dickerson starts in left some. I'd prefer to see Balentein stay and take some AB's from Bruce so it pushes Jay.

I like the idea of using someone to push Bruce. The problem is that nobody in the outfield can hit lefties. Stubbs and Gomes do hit them for average, but not for power. I could see Nix or Balentein getting moved for someone who could at least do something against lefties.

dave wrote:As for the infield Janish has to be there for late inning D. Sutton, Burke, Francisco, Cairo have no shot. Sutton is a career AAA player, Francisco is still way too raw defensively, the other 2 are in camp only in case of injury imo. Miles by default.

I could see Janish going back down or being traded around the deadline if Francisco can improve defensively in Louisville. Rolen will need more rest as we get into the hotter months and the Reds will need a better bat than what Janish can provide.

dave wrote:Leake or Wood is getting the 5th spot, I really have no clue how this goes. I'd be shocked to see Leake go straight to the bigs without any real minor league experience, but his stuff is probably better than Wood's.

This seems like a coinflip. It will come down to the wire.

dave wrote:Ondrusek will probably start as the closer for Louisville but he will be up by May with Chapman. Lehr didn't get a shot at all this spring so he's gone, Wells is gone for sure. It will come down to if they want to keep Lincoln due to his salary, or dump him and go with Fisher as a 1-2 inning guy or keep Maloney as a long reliever. Not sure why they would keep him and Owings though unless Owings is used more as an offensive weapon than last season. I'm hoping Bray makes a comeback too. He could really help this team and possibly allow Rhodes to be moved for a nice piece at the deadline.

I really doubt we will see Ondrusek before the rosters expand unless the Reds are out of contention and move Cordero or he gets hurt.
Lehr will probably be in the same boat - a starter goes down or they move Harang or Arroyo.
I actually expect the Reds to dump Lincoln in favor of Fisher either before camp breaks or soon after. Maybe him and Nix or Balentein for someone who can hit a lefty?
Owings is huge if he can embrace a middle relief/sub OF/pinch hitting role. He would provide so many more options for the team if he can excel in that type of role.
Bray would be nice, but he really is a crap shoot. If he can make it back, the Reds would actually be over stocked with pitching. Have we ever said that before?

Mike Lincoln sucks. I have never been a fan, I am just going by what I've watched over the past season or so. I haven't got to watch him in spring training.... but he has no "stuff" whatsoever and is a soft tosser. Give me a young guy with upside.

jordo212000 wrote: Mike Lincoln sucks. I have never been a fan, I am just going by what I've watched over the past season or so. I haven't got to watch him in spring training.... but he has no "stuff" whatsoever and is a soft tosser. Give me a young guy with upside.

If money was not a consideration, I think he would have been cut long ago. But with his contract being what it is, he could get a shot to turn it around early. Even if he does, expect him to be on a very short leash.

BCBulldog wrote: If money was not a consideration, I think he would have been cut long ago. But with his contract being what it is, he could get a shot to turn it around early. Even if he does, expect him to be on a very short leash.

I realize this, but how well has the "well let's keep this guy on the club because we stupidly gave him a big contract" worked out for the Reds recently. -Cough- Fast Wily

jordo212000 wrote:

BCBulldog wrote: If money was not a consideration, I think he would have been cut long ago. But with his contract being what it is, he could get a shot to turn it around early. Even if he does, expect him to be on a very short leash.

I realize this, but how well has the "well let's keep this guy on the club because we stupidly gave him a big contract" worked out for the Reds recently. -Cough- Fast Wily

I agree 1000%. I just don't think they will do it. Plus it's only $2mm. Not exactly earth-shattering if they have to eat it.

I don't trust Lincoln either, but his 2008 numbers were very solid. 1.28whip and .250baa. Hopefully last year was just due to his injury and he bounces back.

so many of those players just won't make any difference whatsoever

The Reds appear to have narrowed down the 5th starter spot between Travis Wood and Mike Leake.

Chapman looks to be headed to the minors
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100330&content_id=8997974&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

All three pitchers in the race for #5 are pitching today. On the surface, it seems like this is the last chance for each to win it, but they all could get one more outing considering the #5 doesn't make a start until April 11. Baker is saying that they may carry an extra position player until then. That would allow one more outing after today to decide. I would almost expect them to send Chapman down today after his appearance and let the other two battle it out next Tuesday in extended spring training. It's an off day, so Baker and Price could evaluate the game remotely and make a decision afterward.

Yep. Baker/Jocketty say that today's performances will go a long way in determining the 5th spot. This is just my $.02 but I have a hard time thinking that if all things are equal... they keep Leake as the 5th starter. I say this because they just picked Leake last year and he hasn't even pitched in the minors yet. To me I think it is pretty obvious, he and Wood have been basically even all along, so send Leake to the minors for a while, get him some seasoning, and then maybe down the road move Arroyo and give Leake a spot with the big club. There is no need to rush Leake, especially since he and Wood have been performing nearly identically all spring.

I'm pretty worried about the Harangatang.

se-alum wrote: I'm pretty worried about the Harangatang.

me too, very worried. he's a home run machine.

dave wrote:

se-alum wrote: I'm pretty worried about the Harangatang.

me too, very worried. he's a home run machine.

Yeah, he has been awful this spring. Hopefully, that will not carry over into the regular season. At least they have some depth in stating pitching for once if he doesn't regain form.

Harang need work bunting and baserunning....he could get sent down soon.

No he'll be inserted every 5th day come hell or high water.

I'll predict 8-17 with a 4.45 ERA

I predict Harang will have Tommy John surgery before the season is out!

On the 5th starter, after yesterday the stats:

Leake / Wood
18 / 18 IP
3.00 / 3.50 ERA
10 / 17 Ks
4 / 12 BB
1.11 / 1.50 WHIP

They say the poise of Leake is really good for a rookie. At least one of his six earned runs was pretty tainted - he showed his poise by picking off the runner on first, but the defense botched it and let the runner on 3rd score. His poise was better than the defense as he did his job to get out f the jam. Wood gives up a lot of walks.

Looks like Leake has better numbers overall (he's a sinkerballer so he isn't going to strike a ton of guys out) but I wonder how much stock will be put into the fact that he hasn't been in the minors?

How big of a factor will it end up being if the Reds end up with no lefties in their rotation? I know some commentator/writer covering the Reds earlier in the spring mentioned that they should have a left hander just to give teams a different look, how much of a factor is this really?

rugbywrestler wrote: How big of a factor will it end up being if the Reds end up with no lefties in their rotation? I know some commentator/writer covering the Reds earlier in the spring mentioned that they should have a left hander just to give teams a different look, how much of a factor is this really?

I don't like it, but to me it is more of a concern in the bullpen to have a good mix of both. Teams are going to run their starting lineups regardless of R or L (unless you are Dumbass Dusty). Of course, it's pretty clear that RHPs are hit harder than LHPs as a rule. But when presented with the specific situation of "Do we go with the lesser pitcher because he is a L instead of the better pitcher who is a R just to have a mix in the rotation?", I would say it's clear that you go with the guy that gets hitters out more often - damn the conventional wisdom. Crap, I guess that means Douchety will be picking Wood for sure.