It would probably be the greatest day of my life if UK lost to a 16 seed.

But, seriously, what series of events would have to transpire for this to happen? What conference would the magical 16 seed come from?

I think the tournament will expand before a 16 knocks off a #1.

It could happen and it almost has.

No team as a #16 seed has ever defeated a #1 seed since the field was expanded to 64 teams, though some have come close. Thirteen #16 seeds have come within 10 points of a #1 seed, with five of them coming within 5 points. Two have come within one point, both in 1989. Only one #16/#1 game has gone into overtime (Murray State vs. Michigan State in 1990). The five #16 seeds that have come within 5 points of a #1 seed are:

* Fairleigh Dickinson lost to Michigan in 1985 (4 points, 59–55)
* Princeton lost to Georgetown in 1989 (1 point, 50–49)
* East Tennessee State lost to Oklahoma in 1989 (1 point, 72–71)
* Murray State lost to Michigan State in 1990 (4 points, 75–71 in OT)
* Western Carolina lost to Purdue in 1996 (2 points, 73–71, WCU missed a possible game-tying shot as time expired)

Only four #15 seeds have ever defeated #2 seeds:

* Richmond over Syracuse 73–69 in 1991
* Santa Clara over Arizona 64–61 in 1993
* Coppin State over South Carolina 78–65 in 1997
* Hampton over Iowa State 58–57 in 2001

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Championship

No, it will never happen. The difference in talent levels is just way too much to overcome.

I never say never--of course it could happen,but I don't think it will happen.

If a #15 can defeat a #2 then a #16 could defeat a #1.

With the one and done rule many of the mid-majors have an experience level that the highest seeds won't likely have. This year UK is young and could be a prime candidate. The other 3 teams being considered for #1 seeds right now have some veteran leadership.

The biggest problem is, the teams that came close aren't "#16" seed conferences anymore. A good Murray St team is a #13 or #14 seed. Those conferences aren't quite the bottom tier anymore. The new ones are baad.

The biggest positive is that the BEST talent is 18 years old. So very inexperienced. You're not facing a 22 year old Patrick Ewing anymore.

Eventually I think a 16 will knock off a one.

Prescott wrote: It could happen and it almost has.

No team as a #16 seed has ever defeated a #1 seed since the field was expanded to 64 teams, though some have come close. Thirteen #16 seeds have come within 10 points of a #1 seed, with five of them coming within 5 points. Two have come within one point, both in 1989. Only one #16/#1 game has gone into overtime (Murray State vs. Michigan State in 1990). The five #16 seeds that have come within 5 points of a #1 seed are:

* Fairleigh Dickinson lost to Michigan in 1985 (4 points, 59–55)
* Princeton lost to Georgetown in 1989 (1 point, 50–49)
* East Tennessee State lost to Oklahoma in 1989 (1 point, 72–71)
* Murray State lost to Michigan State in 1990 (4 points, 75–71 in OT)
* Western Carolina lost to Purdue in 1996 (2 points, 73–71, WCU missed a possible game-tying shot as time expired)

Only four #15 seeds have ever defeated #2 seeds:

* Richmond over Syracuse 73–69 in 1991
* Santa Clara over Arizona 64–61 in 1993
* Coppin State over South Carolina 78–65 in 1997
* Hampton over Iowa State 58–57 in 2001

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Men%27s_Division_I_Basketball_Championship

Another game worth noting: despite a 72-59 final score, Albany led #1 seed UConn by 12 points roughly halfway through the 2nd half in the first round of the 2006 NCAA tournament.

Never say never. Someday it will happen. Some #1 seed will miss a ton of FT's and get beat.

I honestly thought that St Joe team from a few years ago would lose to a #16 seed.

They didn't and I think they actually made it to the final four.

They lost in the Elite 8 to Oklahoma State. I rooted for them so hard during that one too.

I was just going mention the Albany-UConn game. I was at a boy's regional semifinal game at Anderson Arena in Bowling Green (a blowout between Africentric and some D-IV team the traveling D-I school in D-IV was beating senseless) when my friend called and relayed me the Albany score late in the second half. We left the game immediately and I remember driving almost 100 to get home and watch history. Of course, by the time I got there, UConn was up doubles.

Holy Cross gave Kansas a serious scare in 2002. The Crusaders had the lead with less than five minutes to play and really looked like they were going to do it. Then Drew Gooden remembered he could dunk and KU won by about 11. Holy Cross led that game almost the entire way. It was a great, great game. But, as usually is the case with these games, the top seed remembered why it is the top seed in the last two or three minutes.

ccrunner609 wrote: Probably be Duke knowing my luck.

That would be the most glorious day in the history of college basketball, for me anyway.

It will happen someday, doubt this year will be the year, but someday

Yes, Kentucky will lose their first game this year.

I think it'd have to be a young team going across the country and playing in the general vicinity of the #16 seed. I don't think there's a chance Kentucky gets beat by a 16 seed this year but for example if they got shipped out West and had to play a team from a Western conference I think that would be the most likely way for it to happen. Same goes if some year UCLA or Arizona were to get sent out East. I believe the 16 over 1 possibility that got some serious buzz recently was Oral Roberts(?) over Memphis in 2008 for the reasons I listed. Of course, Memphis promptly blew their doors off.

Yes. Because a team will eventually get way overrated and win a bunch of games by two or three points. They will get a one seed, and play a team full of seniors who believe. And they will lose by one.

Anything is possible. I remember watch a lot of the games just hoping for the upset.