Heretic
Posts: 18,820
Nov 3, 2016 1:30pm
I think it goes back to how the Rs started with double-digit candidates, setting up a situation where the one getting the early momentum was the one who created the most soundbites simply because it was so hard for anyone to stand out from the pack on pure merits. By the time a lot of the also-rans accepted reality, he had all the momentum based solely on his ability to make cutting remarks towards the other candidates. The problem being, of course, that said momentum only lasts as long as it takes to get the party nomination and after that point, it's a whole new game.O-Trap;1821662 wrote:At the very least, the Republican probably would have been favored. Some might have still been semi-easy to vilify, but not to this degree. If Paul Ryan had won the nomination, he would've been a slam dunk. If Mitt had come back and won the nomination, he would have been a slam dunk. If Rand Paul had won the nomination, he would have been a slam dunk. I think Ben Carson would have made Hillary look like a complete asshole by comparison. Cruz probably would have been an odds-on favorite, as well.
But with the election gift-wrapped, the Republican public bought into the candidate with the best marketing campaign, and now, according to Vegas odds, only has a 20-25% chance of beating a candidate who is still being investigated for criminal activity.
Tommy Lee Jones said it in Men In Black: "A person is smart; people are stupid."
This is just a bizarre time. Both parties could say they'd win in a landslide if they had ANYONE else as their candidate.
fish82
Posts: 4,111
Nov 3, 2016 1:31pm
Seriously.sleeper;1821763 wrote:Trump won't break 200 Electoral votes. Seriously.
SportsAndLady
Posts: 35,632
Nov 3, 2016 1:38pm
I lol'dlike_that;1821765 wrote:Big, if true.
J
jedbartlet02
Posts: 178
Nov 3, 2016 1:45pm
There was also another poll that came out that has her up 10 in Colorado...just depends who's polls you trustfish82;1821762 wrote:NH trending red this morning...CO squarely in play and headed south for Hillary. The dam is cracking in multiple spots.
This thing will end up looking more like 1980 than 2012 when the dust settles Tuesday night.
I think this race mirrors 2000 more than any other
J
jedbartlet02
Posts: 178
Nov 3, 2016 2:04pm
http://cookpolitical.com/story/10128
Pretty neat read
Says we will be reading one of the 5 articles included Wednesday morning
IMO....# 3 is the most likely outcome
Pretty neat read
Says we will be reading one of the 5 articles included Wednesday morning
IMO....# 3 is the most likely outcome
O-Trap
Posts: 14,994
Nov 3, 2016 2:55pm
And honestly, I think both parties would be correct.Heretic;1821769 wrote:This is just a bizarre time. Both parties could say they'd win in a landslide if they had ANYONE else as their candidate.
Trust in Vegas. They're just trying to get paid.jedbartlet02;1821774 wrote:There was also another poll that came out that has her up 10 in Colorado...just depends who's polls you trust
Q
QuakerOats
Posts: 8,740
Nov 3, 2016 3:18pm
like_that;1821765 wrote:Big, if true.
ROFLMAO!
T
thavoice
Posts: 14,376
Nov 3, 2016 5:21pm
I bet early on in the reporting trump jumps out to a almost insurmountable lead up to 3 times the votes of Killary, a 3-1 advantage so to speak, only to have HRC come back and win the election....sleeper;1821763 wrote:Trump won't break 200 Electoral votes. Seriously.
O-Trap
Posts: 14,994
Nov 3, 2016 5:45pm
Too soon. LOLthavoice;1821805 wrote:I bet early on in the reporting trump jumps out to a almost insurmountable lead up to 3 times the votes of Killary, a 3-1 advantage so to speak, only to have HRC come back and win the election....
T
thavoice
Posts: 14,376
Nov 3, 2016 5:53pm
The Golden St collapse was way back in June.....that is too soon?O-Trap;1821812 wrote:Too soon. LOL
Q
QuakerOats
Posts: 8,740
Nov 4, 2016 11:09am
thavoice;1821805 wrote:I bet early on in the reporting trump jumps out to a almost insurmountable lead up to 3 times the votes of Killary, a 3-1 advantage so to speak, only to have HRC come back and win the election....
Probably ................Clinton Foundation is too corrupt to fail; I mean too big to fail.
Q
QuakerOats
Posts: 8,740
Nov 4, 2016 4:33pm
Mich tied
Trump up in NH
Trump landslide in the making?
Trump up in NH
Trump landslide in the making?
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Nov 4, 2016 4:34pm
No.QuakerOats;1821966 wrote:Mich tied
Trump up in NH
Trump landslide in the making?
J
jedbartlet02
Posts: 178
Nov 4, 2016 4:59pm
According to who?QuakerOats;1821966 wrote:Mich tied
Trump up in NH
Trump landslide in the making?
like_that
Posts: 26,625
Nov 4, 2016 5:14pm
lol, no he isn't and no he won't win in a landslide. Even with the polls tightening Trumps ground game will doom him. This is like 2012 when Romney had a late surge, but the turnout was not in his favor.QuakerOats;1821966 wrote:Mich tied
Trump up in NH
Trump landslide in the making?
T
thavoice
Posts: 14,376
Nov 4, 2016 5:26pm
QuakerOats;1821966 wrote:Mich tied
Trump up in NH
Trump landslide in the making?
I will believe that when Karl Rove declares it to be true......
Heretic
Posts: 18,820
Nov 4, 2016 5:35pm
QQ's getting full up in his 2012 "ROMNEY HAS IT IN. THE. BAG." shit now, essentially ensuring that Clinton wins.
F
friendfromlowry
Posts: 6,239
Nov 5, 2016 7:59pm
I wonder if there's a spike in alcohol sales over the next few days.
CenterBHSFan
Posts: 6,115
Nov 7, 2016 6:19am
Well, for all of the doubters on both sides:
http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-election-prediction-2016-11
http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-election-prediction-2016-11
"So she's one state away from potentially losing the electoral college. You'd rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump's, but it's not a terribly safe position."
W
Wolves of Babylon
Posts: 408
Nov 7, 2016 7:58am
Let me be the first to thank the Republican voters who got Trump nominated. Thanks to you, we are going to have Hilary Clinton for President.
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Crimson streak
Posts: 9,002
Nov 7, 2016 9:09am
I think it will all come down to PA. If trump can flip PA I think he wins. One thing people aren't talking about in PA is the Amish vote. Living near the Amish country, they are paying people that will drive them to go vote, and none of there votes have been calculated into the polls. It will definitely be interesting to see if that has an impact or not.
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J
jedbartlet02
Posts: 178
Nov 7, 2016 10:44am
J
jedbartlet02
Posts: 178
Nov 7, 2016 10:51am
like_that
Posts: 26,625
Nov 7, 2016 11:05am
Hillary wins Florida and it's over. Doesn't matter if Trump miraculously wins PA (he won't).Crimson streak;1822277 wrote:I think it will all come down to PA. If trump can flip PA I think he wins. One thing people aren't talking about in PA is the Amish vote. Living near the Amish country, they are paying people that will drive them to go vote, and none of there votes have been calculated into the polls. It will definitely be interesting to see if that has an impact or not.
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S
superman
Posts: 3,582
Nov 7, 2016 11:30am
Philadelphia transit strike settled this morning. Pennsylvania will go blue.