Ironman92
Posts: 49,363
Sep 21, 2014 8:38pm
From 1974-2003 there were 325 OT games and the team winning the coin toss won 52% of the games....and that's with only needing a FG to win.
Ironman92
Posts: 49,363
Sep 21, 2014 8:40pm
Is 52% over 30 years a significant advantage?HelloAgain;1656306 wrote:Save for one notable time, every winning team has elected to receive the kickoff when winning the OT coin toss. Unless there is a massive market inefficiency, it would stand to reason that if all parties are coming to the same conclusion about which side of a 2 choice decision to take, that side comes with a significant advantage.
/econ101lesson
Ironman92
Posts: 49,363
Sep 21, 2014 8:43pm
Rookie referee doing the Sunday Night Game
I'll predict 20+ penalties and he has this game recording on his DVR
I'll predict 20+ penalties and he has this game recording on his DVR
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HelloAgain
Posts: 537
Sep 21, 2014 8:44pm
You got that number from googling and going to answers.com lol. But I'll humor you, they claim it's actually 52% to 43% given ties, and yeah over that large a sample size between two evenly matched participants that is certainly statistically significant.Ironman92;1656308 wrote:Is 52% over 30 years a significant advantage?
Regardless, the real number is over 60%(from a source other than an anonymous answer on the internet): http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/early-returns-on-the-nfls-new-ot-rules/
SportsAndLady
Posts: 35,632
Sep 21, 2014 8:45pm
HA just stop. Such a horrible argument. The coin flip doesn't have shit to do with who wins the game
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HelloAgain
Posts: 537
Sep 21, 2014 8:51pm
....SportsAndLady;1656314 wrote:The coin flip doesn't have shit to do with who wins the game
Ironman92
Posts: 49,363
Sep 21, 2014 8:52pm
Yeah....your sample size is awesome.HelloAgain;1656312 wrote:You got that number from googling and going to answers.com lol. But I'll humor you, they claim it's actually 52% to 43% given ties, and yeah over that large a sample size between two evenly matched participants that is certainly statistically significant.
Regardless, the real number is over 60%(from a source other than an anonymous answer on the internet): http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/early-returns-on-the-nfls-new-ot-rules/
Your article is current too. When I think NFL I think Harvard.
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HelloAgain
Posts: 537
Sep 21, 2014 8:55pm
More current than the answers.com answer you tried to pass off as fact after a 10 second google searchIronman92;1656318 wrote:Your article is current too. When I think NFL I think Harvard.
And yeah, what would Harvard know about statistical analysis. :laugh:
Ironman92
Posts: 49,363
Sep 21, 2014 8:59pm
How about this year? It's a decided advantage obviously.
Today the Seahawks were the first team to win the coin toss in OT and actually win.
The Saints and Bears in week 1 must not have read the Harvard research.
Today the Seahawks were the first team to win the coin toss in OT and actually win.
The Saints and Bears in week 1 must not have read the Harvard research.
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HelloAgain
Posts: 537
Sep 21, 2014 9:01pm
Strong understanding of statisticsIronman92;1656322 wrote:How about this year? It's a decided advantage obviously.
Today the Seahawks were the first team to win the coin toss in OT and actually win.
The Saints and Bears in week 1 must not have read the Harvard research.
SportsAndLady
Posts: 35,632
Sep 21, 2014 9:10pm
Zomg such a clever gif! And totally fits the moment too!!HelloAgain;1656317 wrote:....
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HelloAgain
Posts: 537
Sep 21, 2014 9:14pm
Rattled status confirmedSportsAndLady;1656325 wrote:Zomg such a clever gif! And totally fits the moment too!!
like_that
Posts: 26,625
Sep 21, 2014 9:23pm
OT rules are still 100x better than the sudden victory rules they had as of a few years ago. I still think the opposing team should get a chance if a TD is scored on the first drive though.
wildcats20
Posts: 27,794
Sep 21, 2014 9:26pm
It should just be a shortened quarter. 10 minutes, play it out.like_that;1656329 wrote:OT rules are still 100x better than the sudden victory rules they had as of a few years ago. I still think the opposing team should get a chance if a TD is scored on the first drive though.
Ironman92
Posts: 49,363
Sep 21, 2014 9:27pm
Ok...help me out then.HelloAgain;1656324 wrote:Strong understanding of statistics
I just went back through every week of ESPN NFL score from week 1 2013-to last week (including postseason)
In 2013 I found 14 OT games and 2 in week 1 this year. I found evidence that no more than 2 of those 16 were won by the team that won the toss driving down the field for a TD. The only 2 of the 16 won by a TD were in week 9 last year (Chargers/Skins) and week 2 Houston vs I forget)....googled both and watched ESPN videos but cannot find if either one of those was on the initial OT possession. The 14 I know based on the OT score resulted in 0 out of 14 games being won by a TD by the coin toss winner.
I know you are wanting coin toss winner but most recaps didn't specify. I believe the most recent 6 OT games were NOT won by the team that won the coin toss.
Feel free to prove my research wrong and I'll concede.
Ironman92
Posts: 49,363
Sep 21, 2014 9:34pm
Great...glad dumbass lineman took them out of FG range with a PF
Shit
Shit
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HelloAgain
Posts: 537
Sep 21, 2014 9:47pm
You have a fundamental lack of understanding about sample size and how it relates to statistical significance. I've already provided you one link of very detailed analysis. Here is another one that uses a Markov Chain for the analysis: http://www.mathaware.org/mam/2010/essays/JonesOvertime.pdfIronman92;1656333 wrote:Ok...help me out then.
That's a little heavy if you're not math/econ savvy. But regardless, just use your logic. What % of teams make the same decision when winning the coin toss? Unless there is a massive market inefficiency, we can conclude that virtually everyone making the same decision in an A or B scenario is indicative of that choice carrying a clear and obvious advantage.
Ironman92
Posts: 49,363
Sep 21, 2014 9:54pm
Oh...sorry. I use actual football results when I was was just supposed to agree with you even though the results I provided over the last 19 NFL weeks and playoffs don't agree with your premise.
SportsAndLady
Posts: 35,632
Sep 21, 2014 9:57pm
Why would I be rattled? It's just a horrible argument you are trying to spew.HelloAgain;1656326 wrote:Rattled status confirmed
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HelloAgain
Posts: 537
Sep 21, 2014 9:57pm
So does everything I've shown you.Ironman92;1656338 wrote:Oh...sorry. I use actual football results
You aren't grasping a first week stats 101 concept about sample size(not to mention your "research" wasn't exactly scientific.) That's fine, maths and numbers and stuff aren't for everyone.over the last 19 NFL weeks and playoffs don't agree with your premise.
Commander of Awesome
Posts: 23,151
Sep 21, 2014 9:58pm
No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussionwildcats20;1656332 wrote:It should just be a shortened quarter. 10 minutes, play it out.
like_that
Posts: 26,625
Sep 21, 2014 10:03pm
Yeah, especially since the NFL has pretty much taken away special teams by moving up the kick off. I would start them on the 40 though.Commander of Awesome;1656342 wrote:No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion
wildcats20
Posts: 27,794
Sep 21, 2014 10:04pm
I have never been a fan of college OT. It's not real football.Commander of Awesome;1656342 wrote:No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion
Commander of Awesome
Posts: 23,151
Sep 21, 2014 10:06pm
lolk, explain please?wildcats20;1656345 wrote:I have never been a fan of college OT. It's not real football.
Guess shoot outs/penalty kicks are real either? Win in the regular time and no room to bitch.
wildcats20
Posts: 27,794
Sep 21, 2014 10:09pm
Comparing a skill competition to any kind of actual game?Commander of Awesome;1656347 wrote:lolk, explain please?
Guess shoot outs/penalty kicks are real either? Win in the regular time and no room to bitch.
Why doesn't the NBA just go to a free throw contest?
I like the college way better than sudden death, but I don't like it.