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2014-2015 Random NFL Thread

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Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

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49,363 posts
Sep 22, 2014 12:38 AM
From 1974-2003 there were 325 OT games and the team winning the coin toss won 52% of the games....and that's with only needing a FG to win.
Sep 21, 2014 8:38pm
Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

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49,363 posts
Sep 22, 2014 12:40 AM
HelloAgain;1656306 wrote:Save for one notable time, every winning team has elected to receive the kickoff when winning the OT coin toss. Unless there is a massive market inefficiency, it would stand to reason that if all parties are coming to the same conclusion about which side of a 2 choice decision to take, that side comes with a significant advantage.

/econ101lesson
Is 52% over 30 years a significant advantage?
Sep 21, 2014 8:40pm
Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

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49,363 posts
Sep 22, 2014 12:43 AM
Rookie referee doing the Sunday Night Game

I'll predict 20+ penalties and he has this game recording on his DVR
Sep 21, 2014 8:43pm
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HelloAgain

Banned

537 posts
Sep 22, 2014 12:44 AM
Ironman92;1656308 wrote:Is 52% over 30 years a significant advantage?
You got that number from googling and going to answers.com lol. But I'll humor you, they claim it's actually 52% to 43% given ties, and yeah over that large a sample size between two evenly matched participants that is certainly statistically significant.

Regardless, the real number is over 60%(from a source other than an anonymous answer on the internet): http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/early-returns-on-the-nfls-new-ot-rules/
Sep 21, 2014 8:44pm
SportsAndLady's avatar

SportsAndLady

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Sep 22, 2014 12:45 AM
HA just stop. Such a horrible argument. The coin flip doesn't have shit to do with who wins the game
Sep 21, 2014 8:45pm
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HelloAgain

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Sep 22, 2014 12:51 AM
SportsAndLady;1656314 wrote:The coin flip doesn't have shit to do with who wins the game
....

Sep 21, 2014 8:51pm
Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

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49,363 posts
Sep 22, 2014 12:52 AM
HelloAgain;1656312 wrote:You got that number from googling and going to answers.com lol. But I'll humor you, they claim it's actually 52% to 43% given ties, and yeah over that large a sample size between two evenly matched participants that is certainly statistically significant.

Regardless, the real number is over 60%(from a source other than an anonymous answer on the internet): http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/early-returns-on-the-nfls-new-ot-rules/
Yeah....your sample size is awesome.

Your article is current too. When I think NFL I think Harvard.

Sep 21, 2014 8:52pm
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HelloAgain

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Sep 22, 2014 12:55 AM
Ironman92;1656318 wrote:Your article is current too. When I think NFL I think Harvard.
More current than the answers.com answer you tried to pass off as fact after a 10 second google search ;)

And yeah, what would Harvard know about statistical analysis. :laugh:
Sep 21, 2014 8:55pm
Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

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Sep 22, 2014 12:59 AM
How about this year? It's a decided advantage obviously.

Today the Seahawks were the first team to win the coin toss in OT and actually win.

The Saints and Bears in week 1 must not have read the Harvard research.
Sep 21, 2014 8:59pm
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HelloAgain

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Sep 22, 2014 1:01 AM
Ironman92;1656322 wrote:How about this year? It's a decided advantage obviously.

Today the Seahawks were the first team to win the coin toss in OT and actually win.

The Saints and Bears in week 1 must not have read the Harvard research.
Strong understanding of statistics
Sep 21, 2014 9:01pm
SportsAndLady's avatar

SportsAndLady

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Sep 22, 2014 1:10 AM
HelloAgain;1656317 wrote:....

Zomg such a clever gif! And totally fits the moment too!!
Sep 21, 2014 9:10pm
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HelloAgain

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Sep 22, 2014 1:14 AM
SportsAndLady;1656325 wrote:Zomg such a clever gif! And totally fits the moment too!!
Rattled status confirmed
Sep 21, 2014 9:14pm
like_that's avatar

like_that

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Sep 22, 2014 1:23 AM
OT rules are still 100x better than the sudden victory rules they had as of a few years ago. I still think the opposing team should get a chance if a TD is scored on the first drive though.
Sep 21, 2014 9:23pm
wildcats20's avatar

wildcats20

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Sep 22, 2014 1:26 AM
like_that;1656329 wrote:OT rules are still 100x better than the sudden victory rules they had as of a few years ago. I still think the opposing team should get a chance if a TD is scored on the first drive though.
It should just be a shortened quarter. 10 minutes, play it out.
Sep 21, 2014 9:26pm
Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

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Sep 22, 2014 1:27 AM
HelloAgain;1656324 wrote:Strong understanding of statistics
Ok...help me out then.

I just went back through every week of ESPN NFL score from week 1 2013-to last week (including postseason)

In 2013 I found 14 OT games and 2 in week 1 this year. I found evidence that no more than 2 of those 16 were won by the team that won the toss driving down the field for a TD. The only 2 of the 16 won by a TD were in week 9 last year (Chargers/Skins) and week 2 Houston vs I forget)....googled both and watched ESPN videos but cannot find if either one of those was on the initial OT possession. The 14 I know based on the OT score resulted in 0 out of 14 games being won by a TD by the coin toss winner.

I know you are wanting coin toss winner but most recaps didn't specify. I believe the most recent 6 OT games were NOT won by the team that won the coin toss.

Feel free to prove my research wrong and I'll concede.
Sep 21, 2014 9:27pm
Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

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Sep 22, 2014 1:34 AM
Great...glad dumbass lineman took them out of FG range with a PF

Shit
Sep 21, 2014 9:34pm
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HelloAgain

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Sep 22, 2014 1:47 AM
Ironman92;1656333 wrote:Ok...help me out then.
You have a fundamental lack of understanding about sample size and how it relates to statistical significance. I've already provided you one link of very detailed analysis. Here is another one that uses a Markov Chain for the analysis: http://www.mathaware.org/mam/2010/essays/JonesOvertime.pdf

That's a little heavy if you're not math/econ savvy. But regardless, just use your logic. What % of teams make the same decision when winning the coin toss? Unless there is a massive market inefficiency, we can conclude that virtually everyone making the same decision in an A or B scenario is indicative of that choice carrying a clear and obvious advantage.
Sep 21, 2014 9:47pm
Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

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Sep 22, 2014 1:54 AM
Oh...sorry. I use actual football results when I was was just supposed to agree with you even though the results I provided over the last 19 NFL weeks and playoffs don't agree with your premise.
Sep 21, 2014 9:54pm
SportsAndLady's avatar

SportsAndLady

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Sep 22, 2014 1:57 AM
HelloAgain;1656326 wrote:Rattled status confirmed
Why would I be rattled? It's just a horrible argument you are trying to spew.
Sep 21, 2014 9:57pm
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HelloAgain

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Sep 22, 2014 1:57 AM
Ironman92;1656338 wrote:Oh...sorry. I use actual football results
So does everything I've shown you.
over the last 19 NFL weeks and playoffs don't agree with your premise.
You aren't grasping a first week stats 101 concept about sample size(not to mention your "research" wasn't exactly scientific.) That's fine, maths and numbers and stuff aren't for everyone.
Sep 21, 2014 9:57pm
Commander of Awesome's avatar

Commander of Awesome

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Sep 22, 2014 1:58 AM
wildcats20;1656332 wrote:It should just be a shortened quarter. 10 minutes, play it out.
No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion
Sep 21, 2014 9:58pm
like_that's avatar

like_that

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Sep 22, 2014 2:03 AM
Commander of Awesome;1656342 wrote:No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion
Yeah, especially since the NFL has pretty much taken away special teams by moving up the kick off. I would start them on the 40 though.
Sep 21, 2014 10:03pm
wildcats20's avatar

wildcats20

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Sep 22, 2014 2:04 AM
Commander of Awesome;1656342 wrote:No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion
I have never been a fan of college OT. It's not real football.
Sep 21, 2014 10:04pm
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Commander of Awesome

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Sep 22, 2014 2:06 AM
wildcats20;1656345 wrote:I have never been a fan of college OT. It's not real football.
lolk, explain please?

Guess shoot outs/penalty kicks are real either? Win in the regular time and no room to bitch.
Sep 21, 2014 10:06pm
wildcats20's avatar

wildcats20

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Sep 22, 2014 2:09 AM
Commander of Awesome;1656347 wrote:lolk, explain please?

Guess shoot outs/penalty kicks are real either? Win in the regular time and no room to bitch.
Comparing a skill competition to any kind of actual game?

Why doesn't the NBA just go to a free throw contest?

I like the college way better than sudden death, but I don't like it.
Sep 21, 2014 10:09pm