From 1974-2003 there were 325 OT games and the team winning the coin toss won 52% of the games....and that's with only needing a FG to win.

HelloAgain;1656306 wrote:Save for one notable time, every winning team has elected to receive the kickoff when winning the OT coin toss. Unless there is a massive market inefficiency, it would stand to reason that if all parties are coming to the same conclusion about which side of a 2 choice decision to take, that side comes with a significant advantage.

/econ101lesson

Is 52% over 30 years a significant advantage?

Rookie referee doing the Sunday Night Game

I'll predict 20+ penalties and he has this game recording on his DVR

Ironman92;1656308 wrote:Is 52% over 30 years a significant advantage?

You got that number from googling and going to answers.com lol. But I'll humor you, they claim it's actually 52% to 43% given ties, and yeah over that large a sample size between two evenly matched participants that is certainly statistically significant.

Regardless, the real number is over 60%(from a source other than an anonymous answer on the internet): http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/early-returns-on-the-nfls-new-ot-rules/

HA just stop. Such a horrible argument. The coin flip doesn't have shit to do with who wins the game

SportsAndLady;1656314 wrote:The coin flip doesn't have shit to do with who wins the game

....

HelloAgain;1656312 wrote:You got that number from googling and going to answers.com lol. But I'll humor you, they claim it's actually 52% to 43% given ties, and yeah over that large a sample size between two evenly matched participants that is certainly statistically significant.

Regardless, the real number is over 60%(from a source other than an anonymous answer on the internet): http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/29/early-returns-on-the-nfls-new-ot-rules/

Yeah....your sample size is awesome.

Your article is current too. When I think NFL I think Harvard.

Ironman92;1656318 wrote:Your article is current too. When I think NFL I think Harvard.

More current than the answers.com answer you tried to pass off as fact after a 10 second google search

And yeah, what would Harvard know about statistical analysis. :laugh:

How about this year? It's a decided advantage obviously.

Today the Seahawks were the first team to win the coin toss in OT and actually win.

The Saints and Bears in week 1 must not have read the Harvard research.

Ironman92;1656322 wrote:How about this year? It's a decided advantage obviously.

Today the Seahawks were the first team to win the coin toss in OT and actually win.

The Saints and Bears in week 1 must not have read the Harvard research.

Strong understanding of statistics

HelloAgain;1656317 wrote:....

Zomg such a clever gif! And totally fits the moment too!!

SportsAndLady;1656325 wrote:Zomg such a clever gif! And totally fits the moment too!!

Rattled status confirmed

OT rules are still 100x better than the sudden victory rules they had as of a few years ago. I still think the opposing team should get a chance if a TD is scored on the first drive though.

like_that;1656329 wrote:OT rules are still 100x better than the sudden victory rules they had as of a few years ago. I still think the opposing team should get a chance if a TD is scored on the first drive though.

It should just be a shortened quarter. 10 minutes, play it out.

HelloAgain;1656324 wrote:Strong understanding of statistics

Ok...help me out then.

I just went back through every week of ESPN NFL score from week 1 2013-to last week (including postseason)

In 2013 I found 14 OT games and 2 in week 1 this year. I found evidence that no more than 2 of those 16 were won by the team that won the toss driving down the field for a TD. The only 2 of the 16 won by a TD were in week 9 last year (Chargers/Skins) and week 2 Houston vs I forget)....googled both and watched ESPN videos but cannot find if either one of those was on the initial OT possession. The 14 I know based on the OT score resulted in 0 out of 14 games being won by a TD by the coin toss winner.

I know you are wanting coin toss winner but most recaps didn't specify. I believe the most recent 6 OT games were NOT won by the team that won the coin toss.

Feel free to prove my research wrong and I'll concede.

Great...glad dumbass lineman took them out of FG range with a PF

Shit

Ironman92;1656333 wrote:Ok...help me out then.

You have a fundamental lack of understanding about sample size and how it relates to statistical significance. I've already provided you one link of very detailed analysis. Here is another one that uses a Markov Chain for the analysis: http://www.mathaware.org/mam/2010/essays/JonesOvertime.pdf

That's a little heavy if you're not math/econ savvy. But regardless, just use your logic. What % of teams make the same decision when winning the coin toss? Unless there is a massive market inefficiency, we can conclude that virtually everyone making the same decision in an A or B scenario is indicative of that choice carrying a clear and obvious advantage.

Oh...sorry. I use actual football results when I was was just supposed to agree with you even though the results I provided over the last 19 NFL weeks and playoffs don't agree with your premise.

HelloAgain;1656326 wrote:Rattled status confirmed

Why would I be rattled? It's just a horrible argument you are trying to spew.

Ironman92;1656338 wrote:Oh...sorry. I use actual football results

So does everything I've shown you.

over the last 19 NFL weeks and playoffs don't agree with your premise.

You aren't grasping a first week stats 101 concept about sample size(not to mention your "research" wasn't exactly scientific.) That's fine, maths and numbers and stuff aren't for everyone.

wildcats20;1656332 wrote:It should just be a shortened quarter. 10 minutes, play it out.

No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion

Commander of Awesome;1656342 wrote:No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion

Yeah, especially since the NFL has pretty much taken away special teams by moving up the kick off. I would start them on the 40 though.

Commander of Awesome;1656342 wrote:No lol. Thats a terrible idea. College rules. /discussion

I have never been a fan of college OT. It's not real football.

wildcats20;1656345 wrote:I have never been a fan of college OT. It's not real football.

lolk, explain please?

Guess shoot outs/penalty kicks are real either? Win in the regular time and no room to bitch.

Commander of Awesome;1656347 wrote:lolk, explain please?

Guess shoot outs/penalty kicks are real either? Win in the regular time and no room to bitch.

Comparing a skill competition to any kind of actual game?

Why doesn't the NBA just go to a free throw contest?

I like the college way better than sudden death, but I don't like it.