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Electoral College Guess

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I

I Wear Pants

Senior Member

16,223 posts
Nov 7, 2012 2:54 PM
Did anyone guess correctly? I had it being closer on the electoral vote (271-268 Obama) but it's looking like it's going to be 332-206.
Nov 7, 2012 9:54am
S

stlouiedipalma

Senior Member

1,797 posts
Nov 7, 2012 3:43 PM
I stuck with Nate Silver all through this. The man knows what he's doing.
Nov 7, 2012 10:43am
Heretic's avatar

Heretic

Son of the Sun

18,820 posts
Nov 7, 2012 5:28 PM
I think the scariest thing about all of this is that Gibby was right all along with his mass poll spamming.

Reflect on that....
Nov 7, 2012 12:28pm
B

Bigdogg

Senior Member

1,429 posts
Nov 7, 2012 9:38 PM
gut;1308350 wrote:Seriously, when Obama loses this election you should be banned from ever posting a poll on here again. And you should write a nasty email to Campaign HQ for being made a schill, for being used and exploited to go around and lie to people.

You do realize that just because a poll doesn't oversample doesn't mean it's still not a shitty poll. And I have no idea what rocks you are digging some of these up from under.
BOOM! GAME OVER!
Nov 7, 2012 4:38pm
B

Bigdogg

Senior Member

1,429 posts
Nov 7, 2012 9:39 PM
bases_loaded;1312347 wrote:
UnSkewed Polling Data
Sunday, November 04, 2012 5:03:43 PM
Poll Date Sample MoE Skew ind. voters Obama(D) Romney(R) Spread
UnSkewed Avg. 10/22 - 11/1 -- -- +3.6 D +8.4 R 45.8 50.0 Romney +4.2
CBS News/NY Times 10/25 - 10/28 563 4.0 +5 D +12 R 47.0 49.0 Romney +2
QStarNews 10/25 - 10/28 2708 1.88 +0 D +12 R 46.0 52.0 Romney +6
Pew Research 10/24 - 10/28 1495 2.9 +1 D +8 R 47.0 48.0 Romney +1
ABC News/Wash. Post 10/29 - 11/1 1259 LV 3.5 +7 D +8 R 47.0 51.0 Romney +4
IBD/TIPP 10/22 - 10/27 930 LV 3.5 +7 D +6 R 43.0 50.0 Romney +7
Rasmussen 10/30 - 11/1 1500 LV 3.0 +3 D +12 R est 46.0 50.0 Romney +4
Gallup 10/22 - 10/28 2700 LV 2.0 +1 D +2 O 46.0 51.0 Romney +5
Sample: number of voters surveyed LV = likely voters RV = registered voters MoE = margin of error in survey Skew = percent of Democrats over-sampled or percent of independents under sampled Ind. Voters = margin of lead among independent voters in survey spread = percent candidate leads after poll is unskewed
OUCH!
Nov 7, 2012 4:39pm
I

I Wear Pants

Senior Member

16,223 posts
Nov 7, 2012 11:22 PM
The "unskewed" was a bunch of bullshit for "our gut feeling" since the numbers didn't look like they wanted.

It wasn't just Nate Silver that predicted the election with a high degree of accurracy, there were at least a few of the other polls. Basically the polls that weren't lazy and bothered to get data from more than just people with landlines pretty much predicted it within the margin of error.
Nov 7, 2012 6:22pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Nov 8, 2012 3:11 AM
Actually, if you look at the numbers the oversampling was real. It was offset by a skew for Romney on independents ( a couple polls showed a significant move for Obama, but it was the absolute tail-end of the polling data).

Polling error wiped out by a baseline error. That's crap.

in retrospect, the gap on independents should have smelled. But everyone assumed the polling data was good (which it should be, that they can do) and focused on the baselines.
Nov 7, 2012 10:11pm
S

superman

Senior Member

3,582 posts
Nov 10, 2012 12:53 PM
Can't believe so many people are bragging about their successful attempts to fuck over the country for the next four years.
Nov 10, 2012 7:53am
I

isadore

Senior Member

7,762 posts
Nov 10, 2012 2:03 PM
superman;1317094 wrote:Can't believe so many people are bragging about their successful attempts to **** over the country for the next four years.
right, you would think these Romney people would be embarassed into silence.
Nov 10, 2012 9:03am