Electoral College Guess

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G

gut

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15,058 posts
Nov 4, 2012 2:59 PM
Ty Webb;1312063 wrote:http://www.jzanalytics.com/

Ohio: O+8

Virginia: O+6
LMAO...what, did those polls have D+12?

Perhaps the reason Obama is working so hard to fire-up his base is he needs a bunch of them to vote twice :D
Nov 4, 2012 2:59pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Nov 4, 2012 3:04 PM
gut;1312211 wrote:LMAO...what, did those polls have D+12?

Perhaps the reason Obama is working so hard to fire-up his base is he needs a bunch of them to vote twice :D
Can't forget Mickey Mouse gut:)

The sample in those polls was 37 D,37 R
Nov 4, 2012 3:04pm
T

Timber

Senior Member

935 posts
Nov 4, 2012 4:06 PM
"Can't you see?"
Nov 4, 2012 4:06pm
T

Timber

Senior Member

935 posts
Nov 4, 2012 4:11 PM
Ty Webb;1310920 wrote:Why is Romney campaigning.........on Monday..........with The Marshall Tucker Band??
"Can't you see!"
Nov 4, 2012 4:11pm
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bases_loaded

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6,912 posts
Nov 4, 2012 4:56 PM
UnSkewed Polling Data
Sunday, November 04, 2012 5:03:43 PM
Poll Date Sample MoE Skew ind. voters Obama(D) Romney(R) Spread
UnSkewed Avg. 10/22 - 11/1 -- -- +3.6 D +8.4 R 45.8 50.0 Romney +4.2
CBS News/NY Times 10/25 - 10/28 563 4.0 +5 D +12 R 47.0 49.0 Romney +2
QStarNews 10/25 - 10/28 2708 1.88 +0 D +12 R 46.0 52.0 Romney +6
Pew Research 10/24 - 10/28 1495 2.9 +1 D +8 R 47.0 48.0 Romney +1
ABC News/Wash. Post 10/29 - 11/1 1259 LV 3.5 +7 D +8 R 47.0 51.0 Romney +4
IBD/TIPP 10/22 - 10/27 930 LV 3.5 +7 D +6 R 43.0 50.0 Romney +7
Rasmussen 10/30 - 11/1 1500 LV 3.0 +3 D +12 R est 46.0 50.0 Romney +4
Gallup 10/22 - 10/28 2700 LV 2.0 +1 D +2 O 46.0 51.0 Romney +5
Sample: number of voters surveyed LV = likely voters RV = registered voters MoE = margin of error in survey Skew = percent of Democrats over-sampled or percent of independents under sampled Ind. Voters = margin of lead among independent voters in survey spread = percent candidate leads after poll is unskewed
Nov 4, 2012 4:56pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Nov 4, 2012 5:16 PM
Exactly. That shows you what this would be with an even turnout.

But I think an even turnout is optimistic. It won't be D+8 like in most of these polls, but I think maybe more like D+2, which should still equate to a Romney win, but could come down to OH where D+3/4 might be enough.
Nov 4, 2012 5:16pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Nov 4, 2012 5:18 PM
And if Obama does win OH then we should all be abhorred at using taxpayer money to buy an election.
Nov 4, 2012 5:18pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Nov 4, 2012 5:28 PM
You guys are seriously buying into unskewedpolls.com???
Nov 4, 2012 5:28pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Nov 4, 2012 5:38 PM
YouGov's last national poll surveyed 36,472 people!

O+2
Nov 4, 2012 5:38pm
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bases_loaded

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6,912 posts
Nov 4, 2012 5:40 PM
Redskins lost at home.

Election overv
Nov 4, 2012 5:40pm
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sleeper

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27,879 posts
Nov 4, 2012 5:46 PM
It's going to be a late election night for everyone. I can't figure out who's going to win.
Nov 4, 2012 5:46pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Nov 4, 2012 5:48 PM
sleeper;1312396 wrote:It's going to be a late election night for everyone. I can't figure out who's going to win.
HOnestly....I don't think its going to be that late. I think whoever wins....it'll be called by midnight
Nov 4, 2012 5:48pm
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ptown_trojans_1

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7,632 posts
Nov 4, 2012 5:56 PM
bases_loaded;1312391 wrote:Redskins lost at home.

Election overv
Yeah, what a crazy oddity.
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/11/4/3599808/redskins-rule-presidential-election-2012-panthers-win-mitt-romney-barack-obama

2004 is the only year.

I honestly have no idea about this election. No one can pull ahead and I'm reading/ hearing so many conflicting stories on who is ahead that I would not be surprised if either man won.
Nov 4, 2012 5:56pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Nov 4, 2012 6:01 PM
ptown_trojans_1;1312406 wrote:Yeah, what a crazy oddity.
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/11/4/3599808/redskins-rule-presidential-election-2012-panthers-win-mitt-romney-barack-obama

2004 is the only year.

I honestly have no idea about this election. No one can pull ahead and I'm reading/ hearing so many conflicting stories on who is ahead that I would not be surprised if either man won.

I know I'm going to get /gibbyd for this...

But today's polls should give reason to think Obama is likely to win
Nov 4, 2012 6:01pm
G

gut

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15,058 posts
Nov 4, 2012 6:16 PM
Ty Webb;1312371 wrote:You guys are seriously buying into unskewedpolls.com???
It's not rocket science. If Obama gets 2008 turnout, he wins. If it's more even, it's Romney in a landslide. I think it's likely D+3/4 and pretty much a toss-up.
Nov 4, 2012 6:16pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Nov 4, 2012 6:17 PM
gut;1312436 wrote:It's not rocket science. If Obama gets 2008 turnout, he wins. If it's more even, it's Romney in a landslide. I think it's likely D+3/4 and pretty much a toss-up.
You do realize when they "unskew" these polls....they "reskew" them toward Repubs right?
Nov 4, 2012 6:17pm
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bases_loaded

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6,912 posts
Nov 4, 2012 7:03 PM
Ty Webb;1312441 wrote:You do realize when they "unskew" these polls....they "reskew" them toward Repubs right?

Landslide for Romney nigga
Nov 4, 2012 7:03pm
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sleeper

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27,879 posts
Nov 4, 2012 7:09 PM
Ty Webb;1312399 wrote:HOnestly....I don't think its going to be that late. I think whoever wins....it'll be called by midnight
Sorry Gibby. I don't care about your opinion.
Nov 4, 2012 7:09pm
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bases_loaded

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6,912 posts
Nov 4, 2012 7:11 PM
Ty Webb;1312441 wrote:You do realize when they "unskew" these polls....they "reskew" them toward Repubs right?

If taking the +8 D out is reskewing and not being accurate then ok
Nov 4, 2012 7:11pm
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jhay78

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1,917 posts
Nov 4, 2012 9:00 PM
George Will and Michael Barone aren't exactly flakes . . . and they think Romney wins comfortably.

I'll let the OC experts dissect that. :rolleyes:
Nov 4, 2012 9:00pm
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bases_loaded

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6,912 posts
Nov 4, 2012 9:01 PM
jhay78;1312703 wrote:George Will and Michael Barone aren't exactly flakes . . . and they think Romney wins comfortably.

I'll let the OC experts dissect that. :rolleyes:
Obs RACISTS
Nov 4, 2012 9:01pm
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ts1227

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12,319 posts
Nov 4, 2012 9:02 PM
You're all full of shit.

Hope this helps
Nov 4, 2012 9:02pm
I

I Wear Pants

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16,223 posts
Nov 4, 2012 9:31 PM
ts1227;1312706 wrote:You're all full of shit.

Hope this helps
It does. Genuinely.
Nov 4, 2012 9:31pm