Electoral College Guess

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BoatShoes

Senior Member

5,703 posts
Oct 29, 2012 4:02 PM
fish82;1307386 wrote:Says the guy using a Samsung Windows phone. ;)
I laffed.
Oct 29, 2012 4:02pm
I

I Wear Pants

Senior Member

16,223 posts
Oct 29, 2012 5:52 PM
fish82;1307386 wrote:Says the guy using a Samsung Windows phone. ;)
Reps, thought I turned that stupid sig off. And the phone is fucking awesome BTW.
Oct 29, 2012 5:52pm
mucalum49's avatar

mucalum49

Senior Member

1,639 posts
Oct 29, 2012 8:37 PM
http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx
Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead
Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.
Oct 29, 2012 8:37pm
jhay78's avatar

jhay78

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1,917 posts
Oct 29, 2012 9:26 PM
I'm not good at predicting stuff, but the fact that the Dems have dispatched Bill Clinton to Minnesota, where no Republican has won since Nixon in '72, tells me 1) Minnesota is in play and 2) the President is in trouble.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49597664#.UI67x80eZbw
Oct 29, 2012 9:26pm
se-alum's avatar

se-alum

The Biggest Boss

13,948 posts
Oct 29, 2012 10:14 PM
jhay78;1307611 wrote:I'm not good at predicting stuff, but the fact that the Dems have dispatched Bill Clinton to Minnesota, where no Republican has won since Nixon in '72, tells me 1) Minnesota is in play and 2) the President is in trouble.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49597664#.UI67x80eZbw
The Dems probably just want him the hell out of any important states, knowing that Willy probably isn't Obama's biggest fan right now!
Oct 29, 2012 10:14pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Oct 29, 2012 10:21 PM
jhay78;1307611 wrote:I'm not good at predicting stuff, but the fact that the Dems have dispatched Bill Clinton to Minnesota, where no Republican has won since Nixon in '72, tells me 1) Minnesota is in play and 2) the President is in trouble.
Maybe, but I like se-alum's idea, as well.

But it does kind of fit with Romney's team saying MN is in play and buying ads there (which coincidentally have the added benefit of reaching some of WI). Thought I saw a poll showing it in play also.
Oct 29, 2012 10:21pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Oct 29, 2012 11:13 PM
This is a pretty good site.....
http://www.colleyrankings.com/election2012/




Oct 29, 2012 11:13pm
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like_that

1st Team All-PWN

26,625 posts
Oct 29, 2012 11:47 PM
Ty Webb;1307688 wrote:http://www.scribd.com/doc/111497027/12mem1029-f-Oh-Auc

Obama up 49-44 in Ohio
Scribd? LOL. Election over!!!!
[LEFT]

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 600 voters representing the likely 2012 Ohio electorate who were interviewed by telephone October 23-25, 2012. The study uses a registration-based sample and has a margin of error of +/4.0% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups[/LEFT]
Oct 29, 2012 11:47pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Oct 29, 2012 11:51 PM
like_that;1307695 wrote:Scribd? LOL. Election over!!!!
[LEFT]

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 600 voters representing the likely 2012 Ohio electorate who were interviewed by telephone October 23-25, 2012. The study uses a registration-based sample and has a margin of error of +/4.0% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups[/LEFT]

You do realize Scribd didn't conduct the poll right?
Oct 29, 2012 11:51pm
like_that's avatar

like_that

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Oct 29, 2012 11:55 PM
Ty Webb;1307697 wrote:You do realize Scribd didn't conduct the poll right?
I am well aware gibby. I am just loling at you posting everything/anything you can grasp onto that shows favorable results for you. If you saw a poll on bleacherreport.com that showed favorable results for obama you would post it.
Oct 29, 2012 11:55pm
mucalum49's avatar

mucalum49

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1,639 posts
Oct 29, 2012 11:56 PM
Gibby's right it was done by the Mellman Group.

Let's learn about what they do:
The Mellman Group has provided sophisticated opinion research and strategic advice to political leaders, government agencies, corporations and the nation's leading public interest groups for nearly twenty-five years.
And who are their clients?
United States Senators:
Leader Harry Reid
Sen. Daniel Akaka
Sen. Barbara Boxer
Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (as a Democrat)
Sen. Maria Cantwell
Sen. Tom Daschle
Hardly unbiased. Apologies if there are some that are not Democrats in their client listing. Looked at a few senators and other folks in the House and Local gov't categories and they're all Democrat.
Oct 29, 2012 11:56pm
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like_that

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26,625 posts
Oct 29, 2012 11:58 PM
mucalum49;1307704 wrote:Gibby's right it was done by the Mellman Group.

Let's learn about what they do:



And who are their clients?



Hardly unbiased. Apologies if there are some that are not Democrats in their client listing. Looked at a few senators and other folks in the House and Local gov't categories and they're all Democrat.
LOL well aware. The funny thing is Gibby posts all this bullshit as if he is attempting to amputate anyone's spirit in voting on election day. Everyone can read thru his bullshit. If anything, he is going to influence people to vote against obama with how annoying he is.
Oct 29, 2012 11:58pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

Senior Member

2,798 posts
Oct 30, 2012 12:01 AM
mucalum49;1307704 wrote:Gibby's right it was done by the Mellman Group.

Let's learn about what they do:



And who are their clients?



Hardly unbiased. Apologies if there are some that are not Democrats in their client listing. Looked at a few senators and other folks in the House and Local gov't categories and they're all Democrat.
Shouldn't matter.....if Romney's kicking as much ass as you all say....even Dem pollsters should show him winning right?
Oct 30, 2012 12:01am
mucalum49's avatar

mucalum49

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1,639 posts
Oct 30, 2012 12:01 AM
I'd not be so proud of only a 10,000 vote lead in early voting when in 2008 they showed up +8% D. Based on that link right now its 42-41 or +1% D.

Source for early voting stats: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Oct 30, 2012 12:01am
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like_that

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26,625 posts
Oct 30, 2012 12:02 AM
Ty Webb;1307707 wrote:Shouldn't matter.....if Romney's kicking as much ass as you all say....even Dem pollsters should show him winning right?
Other than Quaker Oats, who said Romney is kicking ass? I asked this in another thread, and interesting how you avoided the question.
Oct 30, 2012 12:02am
mucalum49's avatar

mucalum49

Senior Member

1,639 posts
Oct 30, 2012 12:04 AM
Ty Webb;1307707 wrote:Shouldn't matter.....if Romney's kicking as much ass as you all say....even Dem pollsters should show him winning right?
I'm not sure how to reply other than no, a company who consults for primarily Democrat politicians most likely would not come out saying that the leader of their clients party is losing.
Oct 30, 2012 12:04am
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Oct 30, 2012 12:05 AM
like_that;1307711 wrote:Other than Quaker Oats, who said Romney is kicking ass? I asked this in another thread, and interesting how you avoided the question.
Pretty much every Repub/Conservative here as been saying for a month Romney is kicking ass and Obama can't win..
Oct 30, 2012 12:05am
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like_that

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26,625 posts
Oct 30, 2012 12:07 AM
Ty Webb;1307714 wrote:Pretty much every Repub/Conservative here as been saying for a month Romney is kicking ass and Obama can't win..
I have seen nobody say that on here (other than Quaker Oats), and I have seen nobody say that on Fox News. It is unbelievable how full of shit you are.
Oct 30, 2012 12:07am
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

Senior Member

2,798 posts
Oct 30, 2012 12:07 AM
mucalum49;1307709 wrote:I'd not be so proud of only a 10,000 vote lead in early voting when in 2008 they showed up +8% D. Based on that link right now its 42-41 or +1% D.

Source for early voting stats: http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Considering the Repubs had a 4 point lead just 3 days ago.....yes..It's something to be proud of
Oct 30, 2012 12:07am
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Oct 30, 2012 12:07 AM
mucalum49;1307713 wrote:I'm not sure how to reply other than no, a company who consults for primarily Democrat politicians most likely would not come out saying that the leader of their clients party is losing.
One almost wonders at this point if these polling organizations even bother to call anyone, since they appear to be aiming for a pre-determined result. Notice the big guys who care about their reputation (mainly Rasmussen and Gallup) are starting to normalize their results.
Oct 30, 2012 12:07am
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mucalum49

Senior Member

1,639 posts
Oct 30, 2012 12:08 AM
like_that;1307716 wrote:I have seen nobody say that on here (other than Quaker Oats), and I have seen nobody say that on Fox News. It is unbelievable how full of **** you are.
I was just about to ask for some links to that. I posted on page 1 of this thread saying I think Romney wins the election and listed the toss up states he wins. That was a clear sign I said Romney is kicking ass and Obama should be packing up the White House. Geesh, come on Gibby.
Oct 30, 2012 12:08am