Electoral College Guess

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Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Oct 25, 2012 9:50 PM
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/25/romney_downplays_early_vote_while_seeking_it.html


"Facing a massive early voting deficit less than two weeks out from election day, the Romney campaign is projecting a mixed message as the candidate works to keep alive his claim to momentum," McKay Coppins reports.

"In memos and press gaggles, Republicans insist they're so far behind by strategic choice -- focusing their efforts on helping unlikely voters get to the polls now, and leaving their enthusiastic base to fend for themselves on November 6."

"But as Mitt Romney and Senator Rob Portman zig-zagged across Ohio Thursday, they repeatedly made a point of pleading for early votes from the cheering partisans who gathered at their rallies -- the very group the campaign says they're not trying to get to the polls."
Oct 25, 2012 9:50pm
se-alum's avatar

se-alum

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Oct 25, 2012 10:05 PM
Ty Webb;1304540 wrote:http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/25/romney_downplays_early_vote_while_seeking_it.html


"Facing a massive early voting deficit less than two weeks out from election day, the Romney campaign is projecting a mixed message as the candidate works to keep alive his claim to momentum," McKay Coppins reports.

"In memos and press gaggles, Republicans insist they're so far behind by strategic choice -- focusing their efforts on helping unlikely voters get to the polls now, and leaving their enthusiastic base to fend for themselves on November 6."

"But as Mitt Romney and Senator Rob Portman zig-zagged across Ohio Thursday, they repeatedly made a point of pleading for early votes from the cheering partisans who gathered at their rallies -- the very group the campaign says they're not trying to get to the polls."
LOL...so what is the point you're trying to make by posting this?
Oct 25, 2012 10:05pm
G

gut

Senior Member

15,058 posts
Oct 25, 2012 10:13 PM
LOL, what Ty refuses to acknowledge is early voting was significantly wider in 2008 when Obama got just 51.38% in Ohio. Compare to 2008 and early voting indicates his '08 winning margin is gone.

You can shuttle likely voters to the polls early (now we know why only 20+ days was such a big deal for Dems), but you just can't get the unlikely voters to win you the election.

Obama is definitely winning at hand-holding his voters all the way to the polls. God forbid they'd have to get off their ass and go vote on their own Nov. 6
Oct 25, 2012 10:13pm
I

I Wear Pants

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16,223 posts
Oct 26, 2012 1:21 AM
gut;1304551 wrote:LOL, what Ty refuses to acknowledge is early voting was significantly wider in 2008 when Obama got just 51.38% in Ohio. Compare to 2008 and early voting indicates his '08 winning margin is gone.

You can shuttle likely voters to the polls early (now we know why only 20+ days was such a big deal for Dems), but you just can't get the unlikely voters to win you the election.

Obama is definitely winning at hand-holding his voters all the way to the polls. God forbid they'd have to get off their ass and go vote on their own Nov. 6
Yeah, what the hell has this country come to, people offering to drive others to exercise their right to vote? Might as well burn up the constitution while they're at it. :rolleyes:
Oct 26, 2012 1:21am
G

gut

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15,058 posts
Oct 26, 2012 2:44 AM
I Wear Pants;1304622 wrote:Yeah, what the hell has this country come to, people offering to drive others to exercise their right to vote? Might as well burn up the constitution while they're at it. :rolleyes:
Maybe if it was bipartisan it would be a little more on the up and up. Nor should someone be voting for a certain candidate because a nice young man picked them up, or maybe a meal was involved...
Oct 26, 2012 2:44am
S

sportchampps

Senior Member

7,361 posts
Oct 26, 2012 2:59 AM
My mom said Kennedy supporters did the same thing in her town in West Virginia when she was younger. She said they would drive them to the polls and give them 5$ to vote for Kennedy. $5 was a lot of money to the people in her town
Oct 26, 2012 2:59am
ZWICK 4 PREZ's avatar

ZWICK 4 PREZ

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7,733 posts
Oct 26, 2012 6:11 AM
sportchampps;1304638 wrote:My mom said Kennedy supporters did the same thing in her town in West Virginia when she was younger. She said they would drive them to the polls and give them 5$ to vote for Kennedy. $5 was a lot of money to the people in her town
Your mom heard that or was paid $5?
Oct 26, 2012 6:11am
fish82's avatar

fish82

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4,111 posts
Oct 26, 2012 7:43 AM
I Wear Pants;1304622 wrote:Yeah, what the hell has this country come to, people offering to drive others to exercise their right to vote? Might as well burn up the constitution while they're at it. :rolleyes:
If is was that important to them to exercise said right, most of them are perfectly capable of getting their own asses to the polls.
Oct 26, 2012 7:43am
se-alum's avatar

se-alum

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Oct 26, 2012 8:23 AM
gut;1304633 wrote:Maybe if it was bipartisan it would be a little more on the up and up. Nor should someone be voting for a certain candidate because a nice young man picked them up, or maybe a meal was involved...
This is the biggest problem with it.
Oct 26, 2012 8:23am
fish82's avatar

fish82

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4,111 posts
Oct 26, 2012 10:38 AM
Looks like Rassy is going to have Wisconsin 49-49 today. Significant, in that if Mittens can't turn Ohio, then WI is a must have.
Oct 26, 2012 10:38am
Q

QuakerOats

Senior Member

8,740 posts
Oct 26, 2012 10:55 AM
I'm trending now toward 321 for Mr. Romney, up from 301.

When you have double digit shifts in support, that is titanic.
Oct 26, 2012 10:55am
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Oct 26, 2012 1:06 PM
You're dreaming Quaker....

Ohio is drifting away from Gov.Romney
Oct 26, 2012 1:06pm
se-alum's avatar

se-alum

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Oct 26, 2012 1:06 PM
I think Benghazi and Obama's continued juvenile attitude have greatly attributed to Romney's momentum. The Benghazi thing keeps getting worse, so it will only get worse for Obama.
Oct 26, 2012 1:06pm
se-alum's avatar

se-alum

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Oct 26, 2012 1:26 PM
Romney now buying Ad time in Minnesota.
Oct 26, 2012 1:26pm
G

gut

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15,058 posts
Oct 26, 2012 1:28 PM
se-alum;1304877 wrote:Romney now buying Ad time in Minnesota.
Interesting. I don't think MN is in play, but I guess if you win you still want people who don't vote for you to be ok with it.

The other possibility is there's no available ad time left in the key swing states. I think I saw that somewhere the other day.
Oct 26, 2012 1:28pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

Senior Member

2,798 posts
Oct 26, 2012 1:38 PM
gut;1304879 wrote:Interesting. I don't think MN is in play, but I guess if you win you still want people who don't vote for you to be ok with it.

The other possibility is there's no available ad time left in the key swing states. I think I saw that somewhere the other day.
I agree with your second statement gut....could they reach Wisconsin voters from Minnesota ads?
Oct 26, 2012 1:38pm
M

Manhattan Buckeye

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7,566 posts
Oct 26, 2012 1:47 PM
^^^

Geography much? Hello Duluth!

Where do you think SE Ohio gets its tv feed from? Huntington and Charleston, West Virginia. WV is heavily for Romney (which is weird because for most of my life WV was a solid DEM state - guess things change) but I could see the GOP putting money into those service providers, if it wasn't for the fact that Romney will carry SE Ohio anyway.
Oct 26, 2012 1:47pm
G

gut

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Oct 26, 2012 1:47 PM
Ty Webb;1304887 wrote:I agree with your second statement gut....could they reach Wisconsin voters from Minnesota ads?
Theoretically the locals affiliates might go across state lines on the margin. I really don't know. Either way, Romney must have money to burn.
Oct 26, 2012 1:47pm
se-alum's avatar

se-alum

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Oct 26, 2012 1:52 PM
Another benefit in purchasing time in Minneapolis is that you get your message seen in parts of Wisconsin. The Minneapolis market reaches approximately 5% of neighboring Wisconsin, where there is a fierce ad battle ongoing. CNN rates Wisconsin as a "toss-up" state.
...
Oct 26, 2012 1:52pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Oct 26, 2012 3:15 PM
President Obama had a steady 2 point lead in Ohio...if that holds over the next 7 days President Obama will be re-elected
Oct 26, 2012 3:15pm
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like_that

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26,625 posts
Oct 26, 2012 3:20 PM
Ty Webb;1304920 wrote:President Obama had a steady 2 point lead in Ohio...if that holds over the next 7 days President Obama will be re-elected
Where did you get that from? MTV.com?
Oct 26, 2012 3:20pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Oct 26, 2012 3:25 PM
like_that;1304925 wrote:Where did you get that from? MTV.com?
Every Ohio poll in the last week had the President up 2-3. If that holds..Obama wins Ohio. He wins Ohio...he wins the election. Simple as that
Oct 26, 2012 3:25pm
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like_that

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Oct 26, 2012 3:34 PM
Ty Webb;1304926 wrote:Every Ohio poll in the last week had the President up 2-3. If that holds..Obama wins Ohio. He wins Ohio...he wins the election. Simple as that
Yes gibby, we know how important Ohio is, you don't need to repeat it. We also know you are speaking out of your ass. Rasmussen has Ohio tied. Nice fail though.
Oct 26, 2012 3:34pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Oct 26, 2012 3:56 PM
like_that;1304931 wrote:Yes gibby, we know how important Ohio is, you don't need to repeat it. We also know you are speaking out of your ass. Rasmussen has Ohio tied. Nice fail though.

Lets see....am I going to trust a pollster who has it tied(with a +2 Repub bias) or a pollster that's run by a former Romney advisor that had Obama up 2(with a +3 Repub bias)?? Hmm that's a toughie

Face it....Obama is leading in Ohio
Oct 26, 2012 3:56pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

Senior Member

2,798 posts
Oct 26, 2012 4:01 PM
CNN had Obama +4 in Ohio

Also has him hitting 50%
Oct 26, 2012 4:01pm