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The Singularity is near.

Home ▸ Archive ▸ Serious Business ▸ The Singularity is near.
HitsRus's avatar

HitsRus

Senior Member

9,206 posts
Feb 15, 2011 7:38 AM
It has been out there for over 50 years...its existence bandied about in the subculture of mathematical theorists and science geeks. It inspired such science fiction thrillers as "Colossus" and the Terminator series. It bears down on us know even as we debate mundane stuff like whether there will be Social Security in 30 years or whether China will eclipse the U.S. as the dominant world power.

Life as we know it may soon end....and the beginning may be only 12 years away. Unlike other scenarios...this one is ultimately believable...just look at the cell phone in your hand.

The Singularity has gone mainstream...making its debut in the latest issue of Time Magazine.
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2048138,00.html

The article is both hopeful (an offer of immortality) and apocalyptical. Fascinating read.

Vernor Vinge in a paper presented to NASA in 1993:
"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended."



Thoughts?
Feb 15, 2011 7:38am
coyotes22's avatar

coyotes22

Go Tigers

11,298 posts
Feb 15, 2011 7:50 AM
The book of Revelation is the only thing you need to read, if you want to know about the end times. :)
Feb 15, 2011 7:50am
HitsRus's avatar

HitsRus

Senior Member

9,206 posts
Feb 15, 2011 8:12 AM
Nice pat answer.

And so how do you feel it relates to this?
Feb 15, 2011 8:12am
coyotes22's avatar

coyotes22

Go Tigers

11,298 posts
Feb 15, 2011 8:15 AM
That humans will never be non-existent. The Lord will take over before anything like that ever happens. JMO
Feb 15, 2011 8:15am
HitsRus's avatar

HitsRus

Senior Member

9,206 posts
Feb 15, 2011 8:18 AM
Putting your christianity aside....how do you feel about the possibility of the human body, including the brain, to be completely reversed engineered within the next two decades?
Feb 15, 2011 8:18am
OneBuckeye's avatar

OneBuckeye

Senior Member

5,888 posts
Feb 15, 2011 8:27 AM
HitsRus;679069 wrote:Putting your christianity aside....how do you feel about the possibility of the human body, including the brain, to be completely reversed engineered within the next two decades?

Not going to happen. I saw Watson on Jeopardy last night and he isn't that smart. lol
Feb 15, 2011 8:27am
S

SnotBubbles

Feb 15, 2011 8:34 AM
Can you dumb this down in a summary for those of us who aren't fucking nerds? :D

I tried reading the article, but I got bored.
Feb 15, 2011 8:34am
E

enigmaax

Senior Member

4,511 posts
Feb 15, 2011 8:39 AM
SnotBubbles;679077 wrote:Can you dumb this down in a summary for those of us who aren't fucking nerds? :D

I tried reading the article, but I got bored.

Here's what I got:

In a few years, someone will be able to reverse engineer a human brain. Which means robots could be made who are smarter than humans. But you could take someone's thoughts, etc. and put them into a robot so essentially that person lives forever....only as a robot who is infinitely smarter than the original person. So if they get my brain, we'll have the first artifically intelligent super drunk sex addict robot.
Feb 15, 2011 8:39am
O-Trap's avatar

O-Trap

Chief Shenanigans Officer

14,994 posts
Feb 15, 2011 9:03 AM
This is all contingent on what you believe of the human condition.

If you believe that humans, at their basest level, are nothing more than incredibly complex "computers" ... that they have no real free will ... that their actions and thoughts are dictated by the collocation of atoms and processes taking place within their body ... that they lack any non-physical element ... then yes, this is possible. In fact, it is probable.

If, however, you believe that humans contain a non-physical element ... if you believe that a human agent possesses a will that can truly be exercised freely ... then it cannot.
Feb 15, 2011 9:03am
Thunder70's avatar

Thunder70

Senior Member

748 posts
Feb 15, 2011 9:11 AM
here here Otrap...
Feb 15, 2011 9:11am
O-Trap's avatar

O-Trap

Chief Shenanigans Officer

14,994 posts
Feb 15, 2011 9:13 AM
Don't ge me wrong, though. I'm still pretty intrigued to see how close we can get, regardless.
Feb 15, 2011 9:13am
Heretic's avatar

Heretic

Son of the Sun

18,820 posts
Feb 15, 2011 9:20 AM
enigmaax;679078 wrote:So if they get my brain, we'll have the first artifically intelligent super drunk sex addict robot.

Not if they get my brain before yours!
Feb 15, 2011 9:20am
Bigred1995's avatar

Bigred1995

Ohio Chatter - CFO

1,042 posts
Feb 15, 2011 9:22 AM
O-Trap;679096 wrote:This is all contingent on what you believe of the human condition.

If you believe that humans, at their basest level, are nothing more than incredibly complex "computers" ... that they have no real free will ... that their actions and thoughts are dictated by the collocation of atoms and processes taking place within their body ... that they lack any non-physical element ... then yes, this is possible. In fact, it is probable.

If, however, you believe that humans contain a non-physical element ... if you believe that a human agent possesses a will that can truly be exercised freely ... then it cannot.
I hope this isn't in response to enigmaax's summation of the article, because he couldn't be more wrong! I do understand what you're saying, but based on the article this has nothing to do with free will it has everything to do with processing power and the potential of that processing power to potentially lead to conscieneness which in turn could lead to computer intelligence advancing past that of humans.

Is it possible? I say in time, more than likely. I don't see it happening in the next 20 to 30 years though. What is going on in our brain is more than just the processing of data, (I don't know what it is) and until we figure that out, it will be a long time before we get to the scenario described in the article.
Feb 15, 2011 9:22am
FatHobbit's avatar

FatHobbit

Senior Member

8,651 posts
Feb 15, 2011 9:27 AM
O-Trap;679096 wrote:This is all contingent on what you believe of the human condition.

If you believe that humans, at their basest level, are nothing more than incredibly complex "computers" ... that they have no real free will ... that their actions and thoughts are dictated by the collocation of atoms and processes taking place within their body ... that they lack any non-physical element ... then yes, this is possible. In fact, it is probable.

If, however, you believe that humans contain a non-physical element ... if you believe that a human agent possesses a will that can truly be exercised freely ... then it cannot.

I'm not sure exactly what free will has to do with it but I don't think we understand what makes a human conscious even remotely well enough to transfer that consciousness to a machine. We barely understand how limbs work well enough to make artificial limbs. That would be a huge next step.
Feb 15, 2011 9:27am
FatHobbit's avatar

FatHobbit

Senior Member

8,651 posts
Feb 15, 2011 10:05 AM
The article is interesting and processing power has increased greatly in the last 40 years. It is interesting to speculate where that will take us, but I will believe it when I see it. People have been making predictions for a long time and more often than not they are wrong. (I'm still waiting for my jet car!)
Feb 15, 2011 10:05am
tcarrier32's avatar

tcarrier32

Senior Member

1,497 posts
Feb 15, 2011 10:52 AM
O-Trap;679096 wrote:This is all contingent on what you believe of the human condition.

If you believe that humans, at their basest level, are nothing more than incredibly complex "computers" ... that they have no real free will ... that their actions and thoughts are dictated by the collocation of atoms and processes taking place within their body ... that they lack any non-physical element ... then yes, this is possible. In fact, it is probable.

If, however, you believe that humans contain a non-physical element ... if you believe that a human agent possesses a will that can truly be exercised freely ... then it cannot.
"free-will" is an element of intelligence. if a robot were to have this hypothetical super-human intelligence, there is no reason why it would not be able to comprehend that concept, as it would be MORE intelligent than its human counterpart.
Feb 15, 2011 10:52am
O-Trap's avatar

O-Trap

Chief Shenanigans Officer

14,994 posts
Feb 15, 2011 10:55 AM
Bigred1995;679110 wrote:I hope this isn't in response to enigmaax's summation of the article, because he couldn't be more wrong! I do understand what you're saying, but based on the article this has nothing to do with free will it has everything to do with processing power and the potential of that processing power to potentially lead to conscieneness which in turn could lead to computer intelligence advancing past that of humans.

Is it possible? I say in time, more than likely. I don't see it happening in the next 20 to 30 years though. What is going on in our brain is more than just the processing of data, (I don't know what it is) and until we figure that out, it will be a long time before we get to the scenario described in the article.

No. My post was regarding the article itself, specifically the creation of music, and this blurb:
... making ethical decisions, appreciating fancy paintings, making witty observations at cocktail parties ...
I suppose I still see a stretch between a computer recognizing a fancy painting and "appreciating" one. Also, my notion of a free will had to do with making a "decision" (in this case, an ethical one).
Feb 15, 2011 10:55am
O-Trap's avatar

O-Trap

Chief Shenanigans Officer

14,994 posts
Feb 15, 2011 11:04 AM
tcarrier32;679217 wrote:"free-will" is an element of intelligence. if a robot were to have this hypothetical super-human intelligence, there is no reason why it would not be able to comprehend that concept, as it would be MORE intelligent than its human counterpart.

That's not an accurate definition of free will. Free will, by definition, is the polar opposite of predeterminism. If something's actions are completely controlled by its "programming" (referring as much to living things as to computers), then it is, and will always be, predetermined to function a certain way under certain circumstances, and it has no actual say in what it does, how it reacts to and engages its environment, or even what it thinks (even if those thoughts tell it that it has control over its actions ;)).
Feb 15, 2011 11:04am
HitsRus's avatar

HitsRus

Senior Member

9,206 posts
Feb 15, 2011 11:08 AM
Not going to happen. I saw Watson on Jeopardy last night and he isn't that smart. lol

The computer who beat Kasporov in chess was strictly programmed for chess. "Watson" brings the sum of human knowledge but is still lacks the computational power of the human brain.
Most computer literate people are familiar with Moore's law...which states that the computational powers of technology doubles every two years.
The 2023 version of Watson will pound Ken and the best human out there. Once the human brain is exceeded, advancement will proceed exponentially rather than the current simple linear relationship. By 2045 a solitary 'machine' would have a greater computational power than all the human brains on the planet combined. Networked to other machines of the same power and an entity of unfathomable intelligence is created.
Feb 15, 2011 11:08am
dwccrew's avatar

dwccrew

Not Banned

7,817 posts
Feb 15, 2011 11:44 AM
I'm not worried. No matter how advanced a computer is, its creator was still a human.
Feb 15, 2011 11:44am
FatHobbit's avatar

FatHobbit

Senior Member

8,651 posts
Feb 15, 2011 11:48 AM
HitsRus;679237 wrote:Once the human brain is exceeded, advancement will proceed exponentially rather than the current simple linear relationship. By 2045 a solitary 'machine' would have a greater computational power than all the human brains on the planet combined. Networked to other machines of the same power and an entity of unfathomable intelligence is created.

According to the article processing power/$1000 is already increasing exponentially. We are currently in the end of the curve that doesn't increase quite so fast and he expects the increases to be huge by 2045. I'm still not sure that will give us the ability to transfer consciousness but my cell phone should be kick ass at that point.
Feb 15, 2011 11:48am
Go4alOngbOmB's avatar

Go4alOngbOmB

Semi-Pro-Rockstar

673 posts
Feb 15, 2011 11:48 AM


OH, you said Singularity.....my bad.
Feb 15, 2011 11:48am
FatHobbit's avatar

FatHobbit

Senior Member

8,651 posts
Feb 15, 2011 11:49 AM
dwccrew;679290 wrote:I'm not worried. No matter how advanced a computer is, its creator was still a human.

What happens when computers start to make computers? (I'm not being facetious, that was part of the article)
Feb 15, 2011 11:49am
O-Trap's avatar

O-Trap

Chief Shenanigans Officer

14,994 posts
Feb 15, 2011 11:50 AM
dwccrew;679290 wrote:I'm not worried. No matter how advanced a computer is, its creator was still a human.

Not only its creator, but it's motivator (which was, in a nutshell, my point before).
Feb 15, 2011 11:50am
O-Trap's avatar

O-Trap

Chief Shenanigans Officer

14,994 posts
Feb 15, 2011 11:54 AM
FatHobbit;679299 wrote:What happens when computers start to make computers? (I'm not being facetious, that was part of the article)

Speaking to origins, I think, was his point.
Feb 15, 2011 11:54am