Here is how Cincinnati's performance stacked up against their opponent's average performance.

Cincinnati Offense

Rutgers - 30.62 More
Scored 30.62 more points against Rutgers than they allow on average against all other FBS opponents.

Connecticut - 23 More
Illinois - 22 More
Louisville - 14.6 More
South Florida - 11 More
Oregon State - 4.78 More
West Virginia - 3.56 More
Miami (OH) - 3.09 More
Fresno State - 0.22 Less
Syracuse - 0.3 Less

Total - 11.21 More

Cincinnati scores an average of 11.21 points more per game than their opponents allow against all other FBS opponents on average.

Cincinnati Defense

Oregon State - 15.78 Less
Allowed 15.78 fewer points to Oregon State than they score on average against all other FBS opponents.

Syracuse - 13.6 Less
Fresno State - 12 Less
Rutgers - 10.88 Less
Louisville - 7.7 Less
West Virginia - 5.78 Less
South Florida - 4.75 Less
Miami (OH) - 2.82 Less
Connecticut - 17.78 More
Illinois - 18.56 More

Total - 3.7 Less

Cincinnati allows an average of 3.7 fewer points per game than their opponents score against all other FBS opponents on average.

Here's another team for a reference point.

Ohio State Offense

New Mexico State - 14.4 Pts. More
Minnesota - 13.6 More
Iowa - 12.7 More
Penn State - 12.5 More
Navy - 10.3 More
Wisconsin - 9.6 More
Indiana - 2.2 More
Illinois - 0.89 More
Toledo - 0.38 More
USC - 5.9 Less
Michigan - 9.3 Less
Purdue - 12.09 Less

Total - 4.1 More

Ohio State scores an average of 4.1 points more per game than their opponents allow against all other FBS opponents on average.

Ohio State Defense

Toledo - 32.36 Less
Penn State - 22.7 Less
Illinois - 21.44 Less
Michigan - 18.1 Less
Minnesota - 16.6 Less
Wisconsin - 15.5 Less
New Mexico State - 12.1 Less
Indiana - 10.9 Less
USC - 10.5 Less
Purdue - 2 Less
Navy - 0.8 Less
Iowa - 0.4 More

Total - 13.55 Less

Ohio State allows an average of 13.55 fewer points per game than their opponents score against all other FBS opponents on average.

And if you wanted to use this info as a predictor:

Ohio State vs. FBS
PPG: 29.25
PAPG: 12.17

Cincinnati vs. FBS
PPG: 36.3
PAPG: 20.2

Cincinnati scores 11.21 more than opponents allow (12.17 + 11.21) = 23.38
Ohio State allows 13.55 less than opponents score (36.3 - 13.55) = 22.75
Cincinnati Score - 23.07

Ohio State scores 4.1 more than opponents allow (20.2 + 4.1) = 24.3
Cincinnati allows 3.7 less than opponents score (29.25 - 3.7) = 25.55
Ohio State Score - 24.93

Ohio State 25, Cincinnati 23

The college football forum is no place for Math!!!!!!

I've got a headache now

Here's another one.

Florida Offense

Troy - 29.91 More
FIU - 28.6 More
Kentucky - 18.9 More
Georgia - 13.4 More
Florida State - 4.7 More
South Carolina - 3.3 More
Tennessee - 2.18 More
Vanderbilt - 1.7 More
Mississippi State 0.5 More
LSU - 3.27 Less
Arkansas - 4.6 Less

Total - 8.67 More
Florida scores an average of 8.67 points more per game than their opponents allow against all other FBS opponents on average.


Florida Defense

Troy - 29.55 Less
LSU - 24.55 Less
Florida State - 22.9 Less
FIU - 22.1 Less
Kentucky - 21.2 Less
Tennessee - 19.18 Less
Arkansas - 18 Less
Vanderbilt - 11.8 Less
Georgia - 10.7 Less
South Carolina - 6.9 Less
Mississippi State - 5.3 Less

Total - 16.02 Less

Florida allows an average of 16.02 fewer points per game than their opponents score against all other FBS opponents on average.


Florida vs. Cincinnati

Florida vs. FBS
PPG: 34.18
PAPG: 10.45

Cincinnati vs. FBS
PPG: 36.3
PAPG: 20.2

11.21 + 10.45 = 21.66
36.3 - 16.02 = 20.28
Cincinnati Score - 20.97

8.67 + 20.2 = 28.87
34.18 - 3.7 = 30.48
Florida Score - 29.66

Florida 30, Cincinnati 21 (I highly doubt it would be anywhere near this close)


Florida vs. Ohio State

Florida vs. FBS
PPG: 34.18
PAPG: 10.45

Ohio State vs. FBS
PPG: 29.25
PAPG: 12.17

4.1 + 10.45 = 14.55
29.25 - 16.02 = 13.23
Ohio State Score - 13.89

8.67 + 12.17 = 20.84
34.18 - 13.55 = 20.63
Florida Score - 20.74

Florida 21, Ohio State 14

The Ohio State defensive line would maul the Cincinnati offensive line and that would be the game.

Good work on doing all the research but whats the point? To quantify why you think OSU is better than UC? To predict the results of hypothetical games?

You should do these for all the bowl games and see how it does.

3reppom wrote: Good work on doing all the research but whats the point? To quantify why you think OSU is better than UC? To predict the results of hypothetical games?

Just for the hell of it. I saw in another thread they started talking about this, how teams do against their opponent's regular averages, and I decided to do it. Also, whenever I have considered making my own computer rankings, it is pretty much based on this, with a factor in there for how good those opponents are. I was just curious to see what the stats looked like.

Cool. But for the purpose of predicting games or ranking teams a couple of stats that get seriously overlooked are yards gained per play vs. yards allowed per play. That is the best indicator of down to down consistency which is a hallmark of the best teams.

OSU would still beat Cincy pretty handily. Cincy still plays in the Big East--no matter how you want to try to twist it, it's not a good football conference. Our defense would destroy that offensive line and the Cincy offense because of it. I'll admit, the Cincy O is legit. They're on the top level this season. But that defense isn't. OSU could score on that defense and our defense would do enough to stop Cincy's O. We'd dominate the LOS with our defensive line and the game would end right there.

Cincy has a good team, that should definitely be recognized but come on guys--their fans need to tuck their boners into their pants because as good as they are this year they're still the 2nd best team in Ohio. And DEFINITELY the 2nd best program, I can't believe I've actually heard people say they've surpassed OSU as a program this year...

Do this for the bowl match ups, we'll see how well it stacks up...

Could be an interesting thing to try out.

Yeah I would like to see how your formula works out--I love crunching numbers but they only go so far. I've come up with some formulas of my own over the years--I have a pretty elaborate one for March Madness that has won me 3 polls, but I won't share my secrets

Just plug it all into excel, way easier to manipulate it all.

You can make numbers say anything.

HeathAlum21 wrote: You can make numbers say anything.

Ok, good. Show me some numbers that show that New Mexico State is as good as Florida.

Haha, he really is right. I'm sure there is some way you could do it. Doesn't mean you have to take it seriously. But you can't take anything like this THAT seriously. You could have crunched these numbers for the Steubenville Big Red/Cardinal Mooney Cardinals game last week and I'd bet the house to say your numbers wouldn't come up with 45-7 Mooney. I don't take yours that seriously, I think OSU is probably two scores better than Cincy.

New Mexico State beat Utah State who beat Louisiana Tech who almost knocked off Boise (down 30-28 in 4th quarter) who beat Oregon who beat UCLA who beat Tennessee who gave Florida all they wanted in the swamp.

So there you have it, New Mexico State probably wouldn't beat Florida, but obviously it would be a close game.

^ Those aren't numbers.

And using this to make predictions isn't to be taken seriously, but these numbers themselves (how many points you hold an opponents below their average, etc.) are a much better indicator of how good a team is than just looking at basic stats like where you rank in scoring defense.

Alabama Offense

Virginia Tech - 19.91 More
North Texas - 19 More
Kentucky - 15.6 More
LSU - 8.73 More
Arkansas - 8.6 More
FIU - 4.4 More
Mississippi State - 2.7 More
Mississippi - 1.89 More
Auburn - 0.6 Less
South Carolina - 1.1 Less
Tennessee 9.82 Less

Total - 6.3 More

Alabama Defense

Arkansas - 32.3 Less
Mississippi - 27 Less
Mississippi State - 22.9 Less
Tennessee - 22.45 Less
North Texas - 21.36 Less
South Carolina - 15.7 Less
LSU - 11.45 Less
Auburn - 10.1 Less
FIU - 10 Less
Virginia Tech - 7.91 Less
Kentucky - 6.9 Less

Total - 17.1 Less


Alabama vs. FBS
PPG: 30.45
PAPG: 11.82

Florida vs. FBS
PPG: 34.18
PAPG: 10.45

8.67 + 11.82 = 20.49
34.18 - 17.1 = 17.08
Florida Score - 18.79

6.3 + 10.45 = 16.75
30.45 - 16.02 = 14.43
Alabama Score - 15.59

Florida 19, Alabama 16

Do TCU/UF

Eh, there are still some important things left out of this. But like I already told you, I get what you're doing. I like it--a different way to look at it and something to discuss rather than just some Florida fan telling an Alabama fan that his dick is bigger.

There is one more main thing that I am going to factor in before I use this for the bowl matchups. I need to adjust for the strength of the opponent, meaning that just because you hold North Texas to 21 points below their average, it doesn't mean as much if they were averaging 30 points per game against bad defenses.

You *play* to *win* the game