RedRider1;506950 wrote:Here's my best guesses at scenarios
1. Win out...win region & host
2. Beat Ash & CF, lose to Mad or Woo...or both...I still think we host
3. Lose to Ash or CF....beat Mad & Woo - Likely host
4. Lose to Ash & CF...beat Mad & Woo - make top 8, don't host
5. Lose to Ash or CF....lose to Mad or Woo - make top 8, dont host
6. Lose remaining 4 games.....no playoffs....and with a 5-5 record...we wouldn't deserve it.
We win this week, we get in with 6 wins, regardless of the final 3 games....Fantastic50 has the cutoff in Reg 14 at 14.69 points, Orrville already has 11.9. A win over Ashland and lowballing them the rest of the way (i.e losing to Clear Fork, beating Madison & Lex) would give us 15.78 points (not counting any other potential points from Northwest, Triway, Lexington, Senior or WH).
I think the only way we don't make the top 8 is for us to lose out and finish 5-5.
Truthfully, I'd rather our backs be against the wall......we need to start playing like it matters....because it does.
RR1, looking at your 6 scenarios
#1 yes we would win region and host
#2 yes we would have a minimum of 190.5 points ( or 19.5 with divisor, after week 10 just take your total and move the decimal over 1 spot)
#3 & #4 same game results , we still probably host as #4 seed because with a minimum of 169 pts with the lead the top 4 have over 5 thru 12 I don't see enough points out there for them to catch us unless they win out and all their opponents win also, not likely.
#5 lose 3 of 4 we are probably still in at 6-8 spot
#6 lose all 4 could still be in as # 8 as we have such a big margin from the top 4 to 5 thru 12 spots, a lot of teams would have to win out and then get wins from their opponents, but let's not think about 5-5