1. IAEA safeguarding nuclear power plants. Great track record going back to the 1950s.
2. IAEA safeguarding enrichment facilities, mixed since the 1970s and better since the Additional Protocol in the 1990s.
They are not idiots, just hampered by technology, intelligence and lack power to really inspect everything related to a potential weapons program. The IAEA has limited technology and means and they cannot fully 100% safeguard everything, but they catch the major stuff now a days. But, what the IAEA has done has forced states to take their programs underground, thereby it takes much longer.
In regards to Iran. I'm not so sure they would kick the inspectors out. They've seen that game, in Iraq and North Korea, and it doesn't work. Iraq's leader is gone, and North Korea is very isolated. I don't think Iran would cross that line, unless provoked somehow. I think they will instead, keep up their program, keeping the technology around, the pieces separated and delivery systems advancing until one day, faced with a national threat, they will declare their intentions. Not the other way around. Meaning, they will probably try and do what Israel has done, a neither confirm nor deny policy, and Japan might do, which is stockpile the fuel and know how close and if needed are a few months away from a bomb.
ptown_trojans_1
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ptown_trojans_1
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Thu, Aug 26, 2010 10:34 PM
Aug 26, 2010 10:34 PM
Aug 26, 2010 10:34pm