Well, we're almost 50 games into the season and we're starting to see the contenders slightly pull away from the pretenders. By no means is any team out of it (OK, maybe the Orioles, Indians, and Astros) but we're getting an idea of how good certain teams are. So lets take a look.

AL East:
Tampa Bay 32 13 .711 -
New York 26 18 .591 5.5
Toronto 26 20 .565 6.5
Boston 25 21 .543 7.5
Baltimore 14 31 .311 18.0

Right now, the Rays are the best team in baseball. Will things stay that way? I'd say no. By the All Star Break we'll probably see the Yankees leading the division, but don't count the Rays out. Boston just seems lost and at this point is going to have a hard time getting back in contention, but I see them finishing 3rd when all is said and done as the Blue Jays are playing out of their minds right now (and still 6.5 games back). This one really is a two man battle for the division, with the loser more than likely taking the wild card.....but.......

AL Central:
Minnesota 26 18 .591 -
Detroit 25 19 .568 1.0
Chicago 19 25 .432 7.0
Kansas City 18 27 .400 8.5
Cleveland 16 27 .372 9.5

The Twins are good this year. With a healthy Mauer and Morneau, they can be dangerous. Look for them to make a move for a starting pitcher before the deadline (Oswalt?), if they do, I see them pulling away from the Tigers. Speaking of the Tigers....they are a relative surprise with some young talent. They could be a wildcard contender, and if the AL East leaders continue to beat up on eachother the rest of the season, the Tigers could sneak in. The rest of the division looks to be sellers the rest of the year.

AL West:
Texas 25 20 .556 -
Oakland 23 22 .511 2.0
Los Angeles 21 25 .457 4.5
Seattle 16 28 .364 8.5

Weak division overall. Texas has the most talent and will probably pull away from the A's as the summer goes on. The Angels could make some noise if they get their act together but they'll probably need to trade to improve the team. Seattle will probably ship Cliff Lee off somewhere soon.

NL East
Philadelphia 26 17 .605 -
Atlanta 23 21 .523 3.5
Florida 23 22 .511 4.0
Washington 23 22 .511 4.0
New York 22 23 .489 5.0

Quite an interesting division. The Phillies are, of course, the cream of the crop in the NL, but the rest of the division seems to be bunched up. Atlanta is hot after a slow start and have probably the best young hitter in the game. Florida is of course loaded with some serious young talent. The Nationals are a surprise team and should only improve with the addition of Strasburg in the next week or two. The Mets are talented but underachieving and could make a run if they get hot. The division is definitely the Phillies to lose, but if they find themselves injured, anyone in the division could make a run.

NL Central:
Cincinnati 26 19 .578 -
St. Louis 26 19 .578 -
Chicago 21 24 .467 5.0
Pittsburgh 19 26 .422 7.0
Milwaukee 17 27 .386 8.5
Houston 15 29 .341 10.5

Certainly a top-heavy division. With the exception of maybe the Cubs, any team not named Reds or Cardinals will be out of it by the All Star Break. Neither Cincinnati and St. Louis seem to want to be the piper in this division and have been trading out the top spot for over a week now. After the Cardinals off day and the Reds victory, finally they sit tied atop the standings. The Cardinals could find themselves in trouble if the Reds continue their hot streak and their offense continues its woes. To boot, Kyle Lohse just went on the DL. The Reds have their own rotation issues and may see their days of solid pitching from all 5 spots in the rotation come to an end. The Cubs scare me, sure they are 5 GB right now, but they are talented enough to go on a run, and have a rotation right now that they can't even place Zambrano back into. Should be an interesting summer in Cincinnati, St. Louis, and the North Side of Chicago.

NL West:
San Diego 26 18 .591 -
Los Angeles 25 19 .568 1.0
San Francisco 22 21 .512 3.5
Colorado 22 22 .500 4.0
Arizona 20 25 .444 6.5

For awhile, this division seemed like a 2-man race between San Diego and San Francisco. But, throw in a couple series where the Padres and Giants beat up on eachother for the top spot, and add an amazing run by the Dodgers and suddenly its a 3-man race. I do feel like this division is LA's to lose, as long as they stay healthy. Their offense is just too much. They'll probably add an arm by the trade deadline seeing as their rotation blows, and that will put them over the top. Another team I see adding an arm is the Colorado Rockies. They have a Cy Young frontrunner in Ubaldo Jimenez, but really lack anyone of much quality towards the end of the rotation.

So.....yes....its early, but here are my predictions:

AL East:
NY Yankees

AL Central:
Minnesota Twins

AL West:
Texas Rangers

AL Wild Card:
Tampa Bay Rays

NL East:
Philadelphia Phillies

NL Central:
St. Louis Cardinals

NL West:
LA Dodgers

NL Wild Card:
Cincinnati Reds

The NL Wild Card was probably the toughest to pick, as I think the NL West and NL East are both really competitive. But there lies the Reds advantage....lots of games against some pretty bad ball clubs in Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Houston. If they can beat those teams with regularity, they will contend for the division all year long and eventually win either the Central or the Wild Card.

So.....please enjoy and feel free to tear it to pieces.

Seattle is really disappointing this season.

Thanks for the write up though.

Zambrano isn't in the rotation because he has sucked.

Mooney44Cards wrote:Boston just seems lost and at this point is going to have a hard time getting back in contention, but I see them finishing 3rd when all is said and done as the Blue Jays are playing out of their minds right now (and still 6.5 games back). This one really is a two man battle for the division, with the loser more than likely taking the wild card.....but......

A week ago I would've agreed with you, but with Boston winning 6 out of 7 against New York/Minnesota/Philadelphia/Tampa Bay, their season is turning around. Plus, with Lester tonight (who is pitching really well) and Lackey tomorrow, they could very easily take a series win from the Rays in the Trop before heading back home for seven straight against KC and Oakland. Don't be surprised if this is a three-team race into September.

I know they always fade, but NOBODY is talking about Toronto. They have as good of a chance to challenge Tampa and New York as Boston does.

^^^^

I'm not sure Toronto has the offense night and in and night out, and while they have good pitching, the only guy they've really got now that can compete with those top guys in the division is Ricky Romero.

I wouldn't bet they do. However, I think it's just as likely that Toronto hangs around as is that Boston is right there with New York and Tampa. I think both are slim.

However, all you hear right now is how Boston is back in it. Nobody is even considering Toronto as a contender.

Call me an ignorant homer, but Toronto is in it right now because of two things:

1) Charmin-soft schedule. They have only played nine games against Boston, New York, and Tampa. Their record in those nine games: 2-7. When they get to the remaining 45 games they have against those three, their overall record will show it.

2) Jose Bautista is playing out of his mind right now. This is a guy who's max HR total for an entire season was 16, in 2006. This year he has 14 through 47 games. He'll cool off.

^^^^

Those are two pretty good points, and when the schedule beefs up after interleague I could see them taking a nosedive.

They hit 6 solo HR's the other night in Arizona and managed to lose the game

Toronto will fade because they are Toronto. Boston will "hang" but I doubt ever contend seriously with Tampa and NY. Those two teams are on another level this year, particularly Tampa.

As long as I was bashing Toronto for a weak schedule, I may as well bash Tampa. They have one of the worst schedules of the season so far. They've had the honor to play: 6 vs Baltimore, 6 vs Seattle, 5 vs Oakland, 4 vs KC, 3 vs Houston, 2 vs Cleveland. That's 26 games against teams with a combined 102-164 record (.383 winning pct, or slightly lower than Pittsburgh's winning percentage from last year). Now, all credit to them for beating the teams they should beat. And obviously they're beating some good teams along the way (4-1 vs Boston, 3-2 vs NYY). But their otherworldly record will come back to earth.

gorocks99 wrote: As long as I was bashing Toronto for a weak schedule, I may as well bash Tampa. They have one of the worst schedules of the season so far. They've had the honor to play: 6 vs Baltimore, 6 vs Seattle, 5 vs Oakland, 4 vs KC, 3 vs Houston, 2 vs Cleveland. That's 26 games against teams with a combined 102-164 record (.383 winning pct, or slightly lower than Pittsburgh's winning percentage from last year). Now, all credit to them for beating the teams they should beat. And obviously they're beating some good teams along the way (4-1 vs Boston, 3-2 vs NYY). But their otherworldly record will come back to earth.

Difference being though....

Tampa with pretty much this same team (PLUS a Cy Young candidate David Price) has been to the World Series.

Toronto with this same team (MINUS a Cy Young winner, Roy Halladay) has already proven they will fold in years past after decent starts.

Tampa is athletic as anyone and has pitching. Their record is ridiculous, and will come back, but I still see nothing that would keep me from pegging them as the best in baseball. Whereas a team like Toronto is doing it with smoke and mirrors (and a great pitcher in Ricky Romero)

I agree, I just felt it was necessary to point it out. If Tampa was doing all their damage against the nobodies they've played, and tanking against the real teams (see: Blue Jays, Toronto) there'd be a legit argument. Just thought it was pretty interesting that the Rays have this insane record right now but have the easiest schedule in the bigs.

gorocks99 wrote: I agree, I just felt it was necessary to point it out. If Tampa was doing all their damage against the nobodies they've played, and tanking against the real teams (see: Blue Jays, Toronto) there'd be a legit argument. Just thought it was pretty interesting that the Rays have this insane record right now but have the easiest schedule in the bigs.

Thats very true and I agree. The fact they have beaten the good teams as well (smaller sample size) is the best indication.

I think the MOST important thing in baseball though, and it kind of goes into good teams vs bad teams, is when you play someone. For instance, you could be playing a team Angles come to mind earlier in the year for the Tribe and just beat them up....however, the Angles could be in the midst of losing 5 of 6. Or the opposite in playing a bad team who is particularly hot. It also comes into play when you have your 3-4-5 going vs a teams 5-1-2 or something. NOW, that is REALLY digging deep to find who has played a tough or easy schedule etc, but it is THE BIGGEST thing during a season imho.

Big series in Queens tonight as the Metropolitans take on the Phillies ... the Mets need to at least take 2 of 3 to get back into this thing, especially after building momentum by winning last weekend's Subway Series ...

gorocks99 wrote: I agree, I just felt it was necessary to point it out. If Tampa was doing all their damage against the nobodies they've played, and tanking against the real teams (see: Blue Jays, Toronto) there'd be a legit argument. Just thought it was pretty interesting that the Rays have this insane record right now but have the easiest schedule in the bigs.

I knew about this easy start coming into the season and that is why the Rays were a sexy pick for a surprise team. I agree with you the record will come back to earth. The starting pitching will be good but not out of this world like it has been. We need to figure out what to do with Upton (maybe Crawford 2.0 gets some experience this year?) and Wade Davis worries me. He is a 5th starter and I jokingly called him ROY before the season but in the East there cannot be any weak links in the rotation. Helickson is pitching well in AAA so he might get some time. Either way Tampa has the pieces to stay in the race all the way through. Definitely benefiting from jumping out to an early lead though!

I think the AL Central will be a battle all year with the Tigers and Twins. Both teams have great pitching thus far with the Tigers having one of the best bullpens in baseball so far. My worry for the Twins is the back end of their bullpen and if they end up missing Nathan by the end of the year. They are playing well without him so far but I think at some point his missing prescence will work against them. If the Tigers can get anything from the bottom 3 in their order, their lineup will be about as good as any in the league.

Didn't realize Tampa had played so many cupcakes so far. See how they look when they start playing more of the big boys over the season.

I really agree with the points about the schedules so far for Toronto and Tampa Bay. Toronto hasn't even played New York yet.

Tampa Bay is young and has a lot of talent, and their pitching is good, but with the schedule the way it'll be after the all-star break ,I can't see them maintaining the pace that they're currently on.

A lot of good division races out there, even if some of the teams battling for them aren't the best(I always like watching the AL West race, for example, and the NL West is always intriguing, I think as of the other night 4 teams were within 3 games of the lead)

No one is saying Tampa Bay will be able to maintain this pace, but no matter who you are playing, when you're 31-10, you're freakin good. I fully expect them to win the AL East, with NY taking the wild card.

^^^^

Most people would feel really good about that. I know if New York was in that situation I would.

New York is just god awful right now offensively the last week or two... at least during the Subway Series they were, and the two games against Tampa Bay... just some poor plate discipline, and also didn't get some stellar pitching performances either... hopefully they can bounce back

SportsAndLady wrote: No one is saying Tampa Bay will be able to maintain this pace, but no matter who you are playing, when you're 31-10, you're freakin good. I fully expect them to win the AL East, with NY taking the wild card.

I still expect Tampa to win the East. I know what a good start can do for the confidence of a young team though. That is why both this year and in 2008 they are the best team in baseball so far. Last year they had one of the tougher first 1/3's of the season, got into bad habits and some losing streaks and ended up out of the race.

With that said I see darby mentioned the Yanks offense. Tampa's isn't so hot by batting average. Guys are finding a way to get on the bases and the way we run it can put guys into spots they need to be. But Bartlett, Upton, Navarro, Pena, Kapler, Aybar/Blalock (new DH tandem) are all batting .250 or below. Pretty amazing the Rays have the run differential they do when all of these every day players are not hitting that well.

^^^^

You guys run well, which is a total plus. New York has one guy in the lineup(Gardner) that can do that and he's been scuffling as of late.... Plus with him hitting in the 2 hole with the absence of Johnson, you don't want to necessarily run and take the bat out of Teixeira or A-Rod's hands

I hope we can give Kansas City a battle to stay out of the basement. I wouldn't count on it though.

Kansas City (outside of Greinke, who hasn't pitched all that bad but hasn't gotten run support either) will be hard pressed to challenge anybody

pnhasbeen wrote: Seattle is really disappointing this season.

Thanks for the write up though.

This will help turn their season around