His 3rd start tonight for Louisville. Not a bad outing. He continues to show that minor league hitters are a bit overmatched by him. Lets take a look at his 3 starts.

April 11 vs TOL
4.2 IP 5H 1R 0ER 0HR 1BB 9K
85 pitches, 55 for strikes

April 17 vs COL
5.0 IP 1H 1R 1ER 0HR 4BB 1K
87 pitches, 48 for strikes

April 22 vs IND
5.1 IP 3H 1R 0ER 0HR 5BB 8K
95 pitches, 54 for strikes

Ok, so what can we gather from his first 3 starts in professional baseball? Not bad I'd say, but theres some tough truth behind those numbers. Like the Reds' Major League rotation, Chapman can't seem to get through 5 innings without a high pitchcount. As it is the minor leagues, we can assume a few things: 1) these guys are probably swinging at a lot of pitches that major leaguers aren't gonna even think about. 2) Most of those minor leaguers have probably never seen an arm like Chapman's 3) You aren't gonna walk 5 batters in 5 innings of work in the majors and walk away with zero earned runs.

Do I like what I'm seeing so far? Yeah, I guess. This kid's going through a lot, and considering the circumstances, he's putting up some pretty amazing numbers. Is he even close to major league ready? Not really. Just from looking at the numbers you can tell he needs better control. He needs to throw more strikes, which will in turn lower his pitch count, which will allow him to go deeper into games and lengthen his arm a bit. Also, I wouldn't mind seeing him get roughed up here soon, he needs to learn how to pitch in different situations, situations he'll see in the majors. Homer Bailey is proof that dominating AAA does not equal major league success. His innings pitched hasn't really moved. His pitch count/inning hasn't gone down, his BB has gone up, but its really a small sample size against 3 completely different teams. But you have to wonder, did Indianapolis scout him and lay off his pitches tonight which led to the 5BB? Who knows. But hopefully we can keep the Chapman discussion going all season and see some major improvements, what do you guys think?

my thought is...
chapman is way more exciting than anything we got goin' in the show.

Harang is about 2 years over-ripe on being our stopper.
Arroyo is a flake.
Cueto is no more mature than the day he started.
Volquez is not any healthier than he was 8 weeks ago.

Let's get the Cuban Missile out there and see what he's got.




there is clearly nothing to lose.

Keep him there until he goes 3-4 starts in a row 7+ innings with a 2-1 strike/ball ratio

With his stuff he should be able to pound the strike zone. He did that pretty well his first start and gave up more hits, but they were all really weak.


Maloney and Wood should be up first.

Who gives A FLYING FUCK about this "ooh but we have to pay more if we start him before..." fuck that shit. Reds are so annoying about this...bring this guy up and watch him win games for your ball club

Yeah the walks jumped out at me. I'm not one for babying guys, but I would like to see Chapman in the minors until he can improve on those numbers (the walks).

He needs to improve his control before being promoted, those walk numbers will balloon when facing big leaguers.

The Reds definitely rushed Bailey, might have rushed Cueto, hopefully they don't do it with Chapman.

I'm also a bit afraid to hand over a valuable asset like Chapman to a lunatic like Dusty.

I don't think they rushed Bailey at all. He used to complain that they weren't rushing him enough. He and Cueto came along at about the same time and Cueto was with the big league club getting knocked around and nobody said anything, but anytime Bailey made a funny face at Louisville the Reds used that as a reason to keep him there.

Bailey also didn't have an offspeed pitch for the longest time either. That's probably the main reason he stayed in AAA so long

The last I checked the Reds staff was #1 in walks awarded in the majors.

The last I checked Harang and Cueto throw as many pitches as anyone for 5 innings.

No way.....NO WAY in hell the Reds aren't better with Chapman in the big leagues. He's pitched 15 innings and allowed 19 baserunners....the VAST majority at first base.

Ironman92 wrote: The last I checked the Reds staff was #1 in walks awarded in the majors.

The last I checked Harang and Cueto throw as many pitches as anyone for 5 innings.

No way.....NO WAY in hell the Reds aren't better with Chapman in the big leagues. He's pitched 15 innings and allowed 19 baserunners....the VAST majority at first base.

So if Chapman is throwing as many pitches as Harang and Cueto through 5 innings IN THE MINORS, what makes you think he would be anything close to successful in the major leagues right away?

....because Harang and Cueto are getting knocked around (especially Harang) I don't believe for a second that Chapman would allow more runners on base than Harang, Bailey or really any of the guys. Bailey is allowing over 2 base runners per inning!



Leave Chapman in the minors until he's about 27.....then he'll be ready.

Oh man I love this type of debate. Since I don't believe he should be called up after TWO WEEKS of playing baseball as a professional, that means I think he should stay in the minors until he's 27. Very good debate skills there, love it.

Chapman's BB's have gone up in each of his 3 starts, its safe to say that would go up EVEN MORE in the majors, with a smaller strikezone, and more talented hitters who are smart enough to lay off wild pitchers. Walking 8-10 batters per game is not what we need from a starting pitcher right now.

Harang and Bailey are atrocious with the runners being put on base. Harang has 1.64 runners on base per inning which isn't as bad as Bailey...but then you have 6 HR in 20 innings.....Bailey....geesh a WHIP over 2? Leaving his ass down really has helped him.

Hopefully Chapman gets his bunting and baserunning down so he can be as good as the other Reds starters.


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/pitching?team=cin&cat=WHIP&season=2010&split=0&seasonType=2&type=reg

Not sure why some are acting like the "keep Chapman in AAA" crowd are in love with Harang and the rest of the crew... Just because we feel that Chapman needs more seasoning, doesn't mean we are against other changes occurring with the pitching staff (or that's at least the way I feel). I feel like most of the current big league relievers should be sent down and replaced with a lot of the guys in AAA

Screw sending down the relievers, Herrera is good, Owings has had his trouble but at other times looked brilliant, Rhodes is Rhodes, and Coco is Coco. Send down Harang and Cueto, bring up Maloney or Lehr or Wood.

Yeah Coco, Herrerra, and Rhodes are all fine by me. Owings needs to step his game up

jordo212000 wrote: Yeah Coco, Herrerra, and Rhodes are all fine by me. Owings needs to step his game up

Have a little heart, Owings has been put in some shitty situations, not to mention he's pitching 2-3 innings every other day because our starters couldn't find a strike zone if it were the size of Prince Fielder.

^^^this. Owings actually should be cut some slack. He gets called to mop up a lot; and he gets called into long relief situations because of his potential with the bat. I would not be against giving Owings another shot at the rotation.

I'm not arguing or debating this topic with anyone on here.



It is my personal opinion that Chapman HAS to be better than 1 of the 5 current starters...and the Reds would be better now with Chapman than without.

***I can't stand how Dusty Baker has ran this team

***I'm sick of the Reds sucking

***I'm sick of all these amazing prospects over the years that just seem to never to do much of anything.

***I'm sick of watching the Reds and having about 5-10 "what the hell" moments every game.

I simply refuse to agree wtih anyone on Chapman being in the minors until he comes to the majors and flubs up mightily.


And 8-10 walks per game....if he came up and did that then I'd be on your side more than you are. I need to see it to believe it. The Reds didn't give him $30 million to play in the minors.

It is my personal opinion that you know nothing about baseball if that is really your opinion.

My guess is though, that scouts, major league baseball executives, and baseball analysts know a tad more than you do, and they tend to agree with me.

The whole "whats the worst that could happen!" attitude reeks of ignorance. I don't want to bring him up so you can "see what he's got" or whatever excuse you have. The difference between AAA and the major leagues is a wide ocean, and only the best of the best get through to the other side unscathed.

What makes you think he WOULDN'T walk 8-10 batters per game? He's walking 4-5 right now against the likes of the Columbus Clippers and the Indianapolis Indians, how would he get through the murderers row of the LA Dodgers or Phillies? He'd either give up more walks or give up more hits, either way, he wouldn't be helping the team.

The numbers don't lie, and the numbers, when it comes to his control, aren't looking good right now. Thats not necessarily a bad thing, he's just young and needs polishing. Be patient. If he can show improvement by summer, he'll more than likely be called up once the situation presents itself, but only then.

Mooney44Cards wrote: It is my personal opinion that you know nothing about baseball if that is really your opinion.

My guess is though, that scouts, major league baseball executives, and baseball analysts know a tad more than you do, and they tend to agree with me.

The whole "whats the worst that could happen!" attitude reeks of ignorance. I don't want to bring him up so you can "see what he's got" or whatever excuse you have. The difference between AAA and the major leagues is a wide ocean, and only the best of the best get through to the other side unscathed.

What makes you think he WOULDN'T walk 8-10 batters per game? He's walking 4-5 right now against the likes of the Columbus Clippers and the Indianapolis Indians, how would he get through the murderers row of the LA Dodgers or Phillies? He'd either give up more walks or give up more hits, either way, he wouldn't be helping the team.

The numbers don't lie, and the numbers, when it comes to his control, aren't looking good right now. Thats not necessarily a bad thing, he's just young and needs polishing. Be patient. If he can show improvement by summer, he'll more than likely be called up once the situation presents itself, but only then.

I dont agree with you at all.

And saying ironman knows nothing about baseball tells me what i need to know about you...you're a fucking moron.

I've given my reasons but you just take my 1 smart aleck comment about staying until he's 27. You must be a top notch attorney or something.

Harang and others are going 5 innings with high pitch counts and getting drilled (giving the Reds little to no chance to win).....Chapman is going 5 innings with high pitch counts and barely getting touched.

Please tell me the last time someone walked 8 or more batters in a game....go ahead....I bet it happens all the time.

Unlike you I read all of your posts on this and noticed that you said Harang and Cueto down and bring up Lehr, Maloney or Woods.....what is the best possible thing that would happen if that were to take place? Lehr, Maloney and wood will do nothing more than ordinary as that is what they are.....AND it will tell any posssible idiotic takers taht you now admit as an organization that Harang is washed up.

Lehr, Maloney and Wood are all potential 4th or 5th starters at their peak.......Chapman is a potential CY Young winner if he were to reach his peak.

Bring up Maloney, Wood or Lehr......and DEFINATELY continue the run of 73 win seasons........Chapman has the potential to lead to greatness with his stuff.

CHapman has a little room for error as his pitches are insane with speed and movement. No hitter will ever be uncomfortable versus those others.....some young guy with control issues throwing 100 mph......not going to produce many comfortable at bats.

We can look at every number ever....neither of us will know until he gets his chance......I simply want to see it sooner than you do. I do respect your opinion and the facts you have behind it.....I just don't agree.

Ironman, I think theres one thing you're overlookiing in this, and its important: Chapman is not only young and away from his family (so are many other young minor leaguers) but he's coming from a Communist nation that is cutoff from the rest of the world. He is not only experiencing some shock at being a professional baseball player in the US with HUGE expectations placed on his shoulders, he is experiencing culture shock from defecting from his home country which holds almost nothing in common with the US. He can't call home once a week to see how his mother is doing, and he can't hop a plane in the offseason to have a little family reunion. Theres a chance he may never see his family again. So lets not put any more weight on his shoulders than we need to, at least not right now. I'd hate for him to go all Joey Votto on us. This kid could melt down next week and blow out his arm....he could pitch a no-no in his next outing. But patience is a virtue, and its a LOOOOOOONG season.

Oh and SportsandLadys, nice post, are personal attacks allowed on this message board now, or do you just not have anything baseball related to contribute to the conversation so you reverted to 5th grade name-calling? Or ARE you in 5th grade?

Mooney...I actually considered those items as how strong Chapman must be......look at all that stuff the he IS going thru as we type comfortably on our computers (though I am a touch bloated) I could not fathom what he is going thru.....but it can also be deemed that him not doing well in the bigs and being sent back down is simply nothing compared to what he has already endured in his young life.

I looked up some minor league stats on other potential phenoms including Randy Johnson, David Price, Dwight Gooden, Francisco Liriano and several others.......the one thing I can predict from looking at their numbers in the minors to their effectiveness both immediatley and long tem in the majors......not much of anything. Gooden was oh so wild with around 120 BB in 190 innings.....the next year he's in the bigs and is off the charts great with excellent control....Johnson was wild in the minors.....and then wild in the majors and fairly ineffective until age 28....at this point he became Randy Johnson...until he got control he was average at best.

This is just a message board of sprots fans. I'm wrong all the time about this stuff and could very well be again.....but I want proof by watching of my ignorance......I think his positives would outweigh the negatives.

All this being said......IMO nothing of this sort matters with Dusty as manager.

Mooney44Cards wrote:Oh and SportsandLadys, nice post, are personal attacks allowed on this message board now, or do you just not have anything baseball related to contribute to the conversation so you reverted to 5th grade name-calling? Or ARE you in 5th grade?

Oh yeah like im actually gonna waste my time with you LOL

Thanks for another worthless post there, SportsAndLady.

Ironman, keep in mind that there are other people out there who are saying that Chapman shouldn't even be brought up until 2012. Seriously. I'm just not a fan of the immediate callup after 3 professional games ever. I'm sure there were people in the 40's that were yelling and screaming for Joe Nuxhall to be called up from.....recess?.....but look at how that worked out. Wasn't ready for the big leagues until 10 years later. Not that Chapman is 15 years old, but I like being a bit dramatic in my analogies.

And for the record, I won't be yelling and screaming if he got called up tomorrow to start for Harang on Tuesday....hell I'd probably drive to Houston to see it. But I would be sitting there waiting to say "I told you so" while hoping to god that he was Randy Johnson right off the bat.