like_that;1866140 wrote:Ptown in a nutshell.
So, we have technical experts that worry about it and keep track of it, but somehow S&L can't be worried about it?
Thanks I guess.
Nah, he can, just the greater concern is the North actually launching it doing it themselves. The North giving or selling a nuke is a lower probability event.
SportsAndLady;1866146 wrote:Oh I'm sure there are people watching that. Not saying I'm the first person to point out that could happen lol.
I just meant the media/typical US citizen is more worried they're gonna shoot nukes at us (they aren't) and aren't at all thinking if an ISIS member gets his hands on a missile that the North Koreans have already tested. That's scary to me.
Yeah, I get it. The public may not really be worrying about or thinking about, but it is something the nuke community is aware of. But as I mentioned of the two, launching themselves or selling it, the lower probability event is them selling it.
I'd be more worried about him launching a pot shot missile at Guam or Japan than selling a nuke.
gut;1866182 wrote:I don't know. Maybe Ptown can clarify, but Kim has mobile missiles, and I'm guessing deep underground bunkers with multiple hidden exits. So I doubt you can just "bomb away" all his capabilities to be a threat.
And then back on the "loose nukes" topic - once you've done this Kim has absolutely nothing to lose giving weapons to terrorists.
He does have mobile ones. We have a piss poor track record tracking those suckers, going back to the first Gulf War. The last ICBM test launch was from a road mobile launcher in a remote part of the country to demonstrate the ability of the mobile launchers.
Also, all of the North's medium and short range missiles are mobile.
So, say you go all out and try and take out as many as possible, there is not a 100% chance you can get every missile that has nuclear, chemical, or bio warheads on them. Even one can destroy Seoul or Tokyo.
Mark Bowden, who wrote Black Hawk Down, had an article in the Atlantic (I know) about the options presented before us. They all suck.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/
Also, the site 38 North has some really good articles and analysis of the North Korean nuclear infrastructure and weapons using imagery analysis.
http://www.38north.org/