http://basketball.realgm.com/article/214197/2011_NBA_Mock_Draft_Version_40
The 2011 NBA Draft is mere days away and even though picks 20 through 60 are always an unpredictable free-for-all, the impending anarchy of Thursday evening is even more menacing.
Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, Brandon Knight and Enes Kanter should be in the top-five, but this is hardly your LeBron, Darko, Carmelo, Bosh, Wade type of top-five in terms of projected satisfaction.
But even though this draft (for the umpteenth time) lacks a better than 50/50 bet to become a franchise player, I’m becoming increasingly convinced that the aforementioned picks 20 through 60 will be memorably strong.
We enjoy celebrating GMs who find the Millsaps, Gilberts and Manus, which is why the Adam Silver portion of the draft will be watchable for more than just the chants from those waiting to sober up before heading back on the Turnpike. We are more likely to see a second rounder or two in the Rookie Challenge than see a member from this class in a Sunday All-Star game by the time Barack Obama leaves office.
With each new mock, it becomes more difficult to feel comfortable with who is being left to the second round. For me, players like JaJuan Johnson, Lon Leuer, Iman Shumpert, Tyler Honeycutt, Nolan Smith, Trey Thompkins and E’Twaun Moore all have NBA minutes in them.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving, Duke
If the Bulls were given this equation in 2008, they could have picked between Derrick Rose and Kevin Love/Brook Lopez, or Michael Beasley and Russell Westbrook. The former is much better result and this is why the Cavaliers will go with the player without a positional issue at number one.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Williams, Arizona
Continuing the 2008 retrospective, only in Michael Beasley’s world does his team get stuck with the second overall pick in a year where the second best prospect represents the safe and sane version of himself.
3. Utah Jazz: Brandon Knight, Kentucky
With no guarantees about who will be remaining at number twelve, the Jazz will almost certainly be forced into picking Knight. If I could be guaranteed either Fredette or Walker at twelve, picking Kanter or Valanciunas would represent the better play, but passing on Knight here has the trap of being the first pick of this draft that will haunt a front office for years.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Enes Kanter, Kentucky
The Cavaliers are spending more time with the Irving pick than probably need be, but the real work comes here at four where Kanter, Valanciunas and Leonard all deserve thoughtful consideration. The situation becomes less problematic, however, when you acknowledge Kanter simultaneously represents the highest upside of the three and the lowest bust potential.
5. Toronto Raptors: Jan Vesely, Partizan
Assuming Toronto and Washington keep their picks, it is difficult for me to imagine a scenario where Vesely and Leonard aren’t picks five and six in some order. Vesely is more ready to contribute right away, even if he will be more limited in the long-term than his counterpart.
