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Pats - Colts, Sunday night game, who ya got?

Home ▸ Archive ▸ Pro Sports ▸ Pats - Colts, Sunday night game, who ya got?
namod65's avatar

namod65

Senior Member

508 posts
Nov 16, 2009 4:56 AM
Loved that ending. I hate Belichick. He's a classless fool of a coach that resorted to cheating to put his team on top. I love how he absolutely imploded at the end there. No one deserved to have their own call hit them in the face more than him.
Nov 15, 2009 11:56pm
H

HeathAlum21

Senior Member

363 posts
Nov 16, 2009 4:56 AM
You have to think that he says, "Sorry guys, this game is on me."
Nov 15, 2009 11:56pm
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Footwedge

Senior Member

9,265 posts
Nov 16, 2009 4:59 AM
So...hypothetical question......If the Pats punt..Colts have the ball around there own 25 to 35. 1 minute 50 seconds left and Colts have one time out left.

The question is....what would be the percentage chance that Peyton and Colts win?
Nov 15, 2009 11:59pm
hoops23's avatar

hoops23

Senior Member

15,696 posts
Nov 16, 2009 5:01 AM
A lot lower than it is with the ball on the Pats 25 with 1:57 to go and 1 time out.
Nov 16, 2009 12:01am
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puffyisback

Senior Member

253 posts
Nov 16, 2009 5:03 AM
just amazing, what a weird game
Nov 16, 2009 12:03am
M

mallymal614

Senior Member

3,746 posts
Nov 16, 2009 5:05 AM
Patriots sure did choke!

Nov 16, 2009 12:05am
namod65's avatar

namod65

Senior Member

508 posts
Nov 16, 2009 5:06 AM
Oh and threads like these just make this site that much better than JJ. I love talking about pro sports just as much as college and high school. There was never a place for that on JJ.
Nov 16, 2009 12:06am
Enforcer's avatar

Enforcer

Senior Member

2,140 posts
Nov 16, 2009 5:06 AM
Pretty good game to watch
Nov 16, 2009 12:06am
Laley23's avatar

Laley23

GOAT

29,506 posts
Nov 16, 2009 5:08 AM
Colts probably have this conference locked up at this point. 2 game lead on the Bengals is the closest challenger.
Nov 16, 2009 12:08am
Walt's avatar

Walt

Senior Member

237 posts
Nov 16, 2009 5:12 AM
justincredible wrote: BB has the be the most arrogant bastard I have ever seen. Wow!
He is.... and it's great to see him lose this way. As pissed off as I am about my Steelers, at least today wasn't a total crap day. The Cheatriots lost in an embarrassing way so life is good.
Nov 16, 2009 12:12am
dwccrew's avatar

dwccrew

Not Banned

7,817 posts
Nov 16, 2009 5:18 AM
Manning proves why he is the best in the game. Nice win by the Colts.
Nov 16, 2009 12:18am
M

mhs95_06

Senior Member

8,167 posts
Nov 16, 2009 6:14 AM
Footwedge wrote: So...hypothetical question......If the Pats punt..Colts have the ball around there own 25 to 35. 1 minute 50 seconds left and Colts have one time out left.

The question is....what would be the percentage chance that Peyton and Colts win?
The reputation of Peyton and and the Colts motivated Belichick into the decision to go for it on 4th and 1 from the 29. Did Belichick make a bad decision?

I don't think so. If you punt, what are the chances the Colts are going to score a TD and win the game anyway? With Peyton they are maybe 35%. If you go for it, you have maybe a 70% chance to make it and win the game. Right there you are better off by 5% to win the game if you go for it, not to mention that if you fail to get the first down, you still have some chance, maybe 20%, to stop the Colts from getting the game winning TD.

So, if you add my estimations up you have a 76% chance to win if you go for the first down, and a 65% chance to win if you punt!

When you factor in Peyton's amazing proficiency of taking his team on a long drive with little time left to score a TD, I think it was the correct decision, it just did not pan out for the Patriots!
Nov 16, 2009 1:14am
karen lotz's avatar

karen lotz

TuTu Train

22,284 posts
Nov 16, 2009 6:29 AM
Nov 16, 2009 1:29am
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Footwedge

Senior Member

9,265 posts
Nov 16, 2009 6:58 AM
54% of the people that voted here think the Colts would have won had the Pats punted. If that were the true odds....then Belichek absolutely made the right call in going for it on 4th and 2.

The Pats will pick up 4th and 2 a lot more often than not. If they make it, it's kneel down time. Had the receiver not bobbled it...it's kneel down time.

I've never seen that call happen...ever.

Here is a link to the poll which justifies Belichek's decision.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/polls?pCat=46&sCat=819
Nov 16, 2009 1:58am
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Footwedge

Senior Member

9,265 posts
Nov 16, 2009 7:04 AM
mhs95_06 wrote:
Footwedge wrote: So...hypothetical question......If the Pats punt..Colts have the ball around there own 25 to 35. 1 minute 50 seconds left and Colts have one time out left.

The question is....what would be the percentage chance that Peyton and Colts win?
The reputation of Peyton and and the Colts motivated Belichick into the decision to go for it on 4th and 1 from the 29. Did Belichick make a bad decision?

I don't think so. If you punt, what are the chances the Colts are going to score a TD and win the game anyway? With Peyton they are maybe 35%. If you go for it, you have maybe a 70% chance to make it and win the game. Right there you are better off by 5% to win the game if you go for it, not to mention that if you fail to get the first down, you still have some chance, maybe 20%, to stop the Colts from getting the game winning TD.

So, if you add my estimations up you have a 76% chance to win if you go for the first down, and a 65% chance to win if you punt!

When you factor in Peyton's amazing proficiency of taking his team on a long drive with little time left to score a TD, I think it was the correct decision, it just did not pan out for the Patriots!
mhs....happy to see you on this site....and to your post....spot on. I think the Pats make on 4th and 2 about 65% of the time. They just said on the NFL channel that they've converted 78% of all 4th downs over the years.

Also...they should have let Adai score on that 13 yard run. I'll take the Pats needing only a field goal with a minute 20 left....even w/out a time out left.
Nov 16, 2009 2:04am
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Footwedge

Senior Member

9,265 posts
Nov 16, 2009 7:07 AM
LTrain23 wrote: A lot lower than it is with the ball on the Pats 25 with 1:57 to go and 1 time out.
Ltrain...you have to weigh the risk/reward in going for it. Yes, BB went against the book. But in my opinion, it was the right call to make.
Nov 16, 2009 2:07am
GoChiefs's avatar

GoChiefs

Resident Maniac

16,754 posts
Nov 16, 2009 11:19 AM
What the hell?!?!?! Ok..I went to bed and the score was 24-7 Patriots! I wake up..and Indy wins??!?!?!?! How the hell did that happen??? What'd I miss???
Nov 16, 2009 6:19am
KnightXC1's avatar

KnightXC1

Captain Charisma

1,031 posts
Nov 16, 2009 3:58 PM
Chiefs, Colts came back when it was 34-28 Pats and stopped the Pats on a questionable 4th and 1 call by New England. On the play, it looked like the receiver was right on the first down line but they marked him short and Bellicheck did not challenge the play. Gave the Colts the ball on the 30 and Manning went right down and scored to get the win.

Tough call for Bellicheck. If he gets it, he is a genius but since he missed he gets called out and questioned. But can you really question a guy with 3 Super Bowl rings on his hand? Yea, it might not have been the right decision(I would have punted) but I think it was worth a shot on the road.
Nov 16, 2009 10:58am
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fan_from_texas

Senior Member

2,693 posts
Nov 16, 2009 7:52 PM
I think it was the right call, and the numbers bear me out.

See, e.g., this link or this link.

You can't judge whether a decision was good based on hindsight; you have to make the evaluation based on what you know at the time. And based on what we knew at the time, going for it maximized the chances of winning. Statistically, this is undeniable.
Nov 16, 2009 2:52pm
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Footwedge

Senior Member

9,265 posts
Nov 16, 2009 10:05 PM
^^Ilinois went for it on 4th and 1 on their own 29 a few years ago up 3 or 4 with 7 minutes to go. The Buckeyes never saw the ball again.

For those that say BB was stating he didn't trust his defense...well who can blame him? Manning had just taken his team 80 yards in a minute and a half....and he never even used a time out.

The Pats have a geat offense...and BB trusts his offense over his defense against Manning.

People like Tony Dungy can cry all they want about BB going against the percentages. But as FFT's link clearly indicates....BB did play the right percentages...and was correct in going for it.
Nov 16, 2009 5:05pm