Well, at least this team is making somewhat of a push at the right time in the season. At the All-Star Break we pretty much have given up hope. To be in the race with 18 to go is better than setting the dumpster on fire and walking away.

Al Bundy;1751351 wrote:The simulators I have seen put the tribe's playoff chances at anywhere between 6% to 9%. I'm quite certain that your math is more accurate than theirs. Just for the lulz, can you show us your math?

MLB.com postseason probabilities.

Royals- 100%
Twins- 24.8%
Indians- 9.3%

They are all big but this is a huge game tonight. Gotta win with Kluber on the mound. Going into the weekend taking 3 of 4 as opposed to just a split is huge. And getting above .500.

The Rangers and Astros have one more tonight. The Twins start a 4 game series with the Angels this weekend. I'd be happy with a split there...we pretty much control our own destiny with the Twins as we'll have to beat up on them either way to make it so I don't want the Angels to add ground on us.

Staying afloat, but missed a huge opportunity with Kluber on the mound. Damn I wish we had last years Kluber down the stretch. This year is just a TINY bit off.

Al Bundy;1751351 wrote:The simulators I have seen put the tribe's playoff chances at anywhere between 6% to 9%. I'm quite certain that your math is more accurate than theirs. Just for the lulz, can you show us your math?

Don't care what your simulators say. The tribe's chances are slim and none. They are a 500 team to date, They play most of their games against teams with winning records and the odds say they will finish around 500 for the season. Now go google your bell curve and study up on standard deviations...then get back to me.

TBone14;1751367 wrote:MLB.com postseason probabilities.

Royals- 100%
Twins- 24.8%
Indians- 9.3%



They are all big but this is a huge game tonight. Gotta win with Kluber on the mound. Going into the weekend taking 3 of 4 as opposed to just a split is huge. And getting above .500.

The Rangers and Astros have one more tonight. The Twins start a 4 game series with the Angels this weekend. I'd be happy with a split there...we pretty much control our own destiny with the Twins as we'll have to beat up on them either way to make it so I don't want the Angels to add ground on us.

There is no way the tribe's playoff chances are at 10%

Tribe brass heeded my advice and moved Bauer to the pen. Pretty much a no brainer, but I've seen management screw up wet dreams. Swisher and Bourn should have been peddled before the season started and Lindor should have been the opening day shortstop.

Footwedge;1751514 wrote:There is no way the tribe's playoff chances are at 10%

You are right. Now down to 7.7% after the loss last night.
If you disagree with the MLB.com algorithm, take it up with them. I'm just reporting what they have.

i'd say 7.7% is a "slim" chance. With every loss the Tribe's chances become less practical and more mathematical only.

I'll tell you what would help. If the team were to go on a five or six game winning streak, those chances would dramatically increase.
We are past the point when winning a series is enough. They need to get hot, and they need to get hot right now. It's not impossible, ....improbable yes, ....unlikely yes, ....impossible ​no.

^^^ That said, some of Tito's personnel decisions lately have been head scratchers considering the urgency needed to win.
WTF was he doing with Gavin Floyd last night? If anything, he should've been on a very short leash. Four straight hits, and two runs later the game was out of control.

Laley23;1751317 wrote:Lindor is something special. Really hope he doesn't have a sophomore slump.

Footwedge;1751350 wrote:Lindor with 41 RBI's in half a season Kipnis with 48 RBI's for whole season. Chances of getting in are less than 1%. Pretty much need to go 5-2 against the Twins. Again...please no more Trevor Bauer.

Reason #9979797868 why the Dolans are terrible. Everyone and their mother knew Lindor should have been up from the beginning of the season, instead cheapass dolans play penis flickers about a future contract. IF we had Lindor up the whole season, we might actually be in contention to make the playoffs.

TBone14;1751555 wrote:You are right. Now down to 7.7% after the loss last night.
If you disagree with the MLB.com algorithm, take it up with them. I'm just reporting what they have.

Yes I diasagree with MLB's whatever it is they use to calculate odds. They post bs in order to create interest. Last night the tribe was plus 145 to win against Sale and the Strohs were minus 210. If one bet a parlay that the tribe would win and the Strohs would lose, Vegas would have paid out more than 8-1. That means there was about a 12% chance of the tribe actually gaining a game last night. 12%! If one wasto multiply the odds out the way they should, the tribe would be about 2% to make the playoffs after last night's 8-1 gutshot hit.

Moreover, the tribe plays better than half their remaining games against teams with winning records. Granted, most of their games are at home which helps the odds. But the over/under for the tribe is at best is 82 games at this point. To reach 85 wins, the tribe is at no better than a 10% shot. If they posted 85 wins, the probability of getting in would be less than 30%, given that they will have to jump 3 teams. Multiplying it out, the tribe is still very much along shot...like I said maybe 2% at this point. Lastnight's results probably doubled their chances...going from 1% to 2%.

Is it possible? Absolutely. Nobody wants to see them make it more than me. If Vegas were to post actual odds on them getting in , they would probably pay 40-1. which is 2.5% chance.

I'm not a math major, and could be wrong, but wasn't the Tribes chances of gaining a game 27%?

Tribe was +145 (40%)
Astros were -210 (67%)

.40 x .67 = .27

Also, Vegas would've paid out 261.67 on those numbers. Which is not close to 8-1. It is in fact 2.61-1, which is MUCH more in line for a 2 team parlay. Vegas would never pay 8-1 on a 2 team parlay between 2 professional teams. They would be out of business lol

Laley23;1751777 wrote:Also, Vegas would've paid out 261.67 on those numbers. Which is not close to 8-1. It is in fact 2.61-1, which is MUCH more in line for a 2 team parlay. Vegas would never pay 8-1 on a 2 team parlay between 2 professional teams. They would be out of business lol

You are sooo wrong it defies description. It most definitely WOULD pay close to 8-1. A 2 team parlay with 2 dogs at plus 210 and plus 135. If the 2 games were rated pick the payout would be 2.6 to 1.

Footwedge;1752148 wrote:You are sooo wrong it defies description. It most definitely WOULD pay close to 8-1. A 2 team parlay with 2 dogs at plus 210 and plus 135. If the 2 games were rated pick the payout would be 2.6 to 1.

You're an idiot. Houston was favored, at -210. You typed that.

You also clearly have no clue how Vegas/sportsbooks calculate a parlay. They have a pretty strict guideline they follow, and those odds won't get anywhere near 8-1 payout.

Well...I don't think either one of you are right.

If the Astros were -210...that means the best you could get the A's would be around +190. Now, the Tribe wasn't +145...the White Sox were -145 so that means with dime lines the Tribe would +135.

Typical odds, straight juice at -110, a 2 team parlay pays 2.6/1. So adding in two dogs significantly improves the odds. To what extent, just turn to your handy parlay calculator.

A 2 team, money line parlay with a +135 dog and a +190 dogs, 100 dollars will pay ~581 so roughly 5.8/1 on that parlay. Not quite 8/1 but much higher than the standard 2.6/1 on a two teamer.

This is for Gardens: "Excuse me, stewardess, I can speak jive."

Go Tribe.

TBone14;1752178 wrote:Well...I don't think either one of you are right.

If the Astros were -210...that means the best you could get the A's would be around +190. Now, the Tribe wasn't +145...the White Sox were -145 so that means with dime lines the Tribe would +135.

Typical odds, straight juice at -110, a 2 team parlay pays 2.6/1. So adding in two dogs significantly improves the odds. To what extent, just turn to your handy parlay calculator.

A 2 team, money line parlay with a +135 dog and a +190 dogs, 100 dollars will pay ~581 so roughly 5.8/1 on that parlay. Not quite 8/1 but much higher than the standard 2.6/1 on a two teamer.

The parlay was plus 205 and plus 135. not plus 190 as you listed (Strohs were minus 235). But I will concede 8-1 was not the payout...but a reflection of the actual probability. The actual probability was about 7-1...not 8-1 as I originally stated.

Laley23;1752153 wrote:You also clearly have no clue how Vegas/sportsbooks calculate a parlay. They have a pretty strict guideline they follow, and those odds won't get anywhere near 8-1 payout.

You are dead wrong laley. You are the one that is clueeless on parlay payouts. A 2 team parlay with a doge at plus 210 and a dog at plus 135 pays out a minimum of 6-1. Tbone apparently has a calculator that will comfirm that.

Decades ago, I bet baseball with the corner bookie and he would never accept a 3 teamer for 3 dogs. You had to take at least one favorite because of the payout .Sports books have no problem in accepting dog parlays.

Your claim of a 2.6-1 payout on a parlay is accurate if both games are rated pick.

Footwedge;1752238 wrote:
Decades ago, I bet baseball with the corner bookie

That guy who made money based upon Footwedge's ability to do math is currently a billionaire.

BRF;1752183 wrote:This is for Gardens: "Excuse me, stewardess, I can speak jive."

Go Tribe.

Roger, Roger.
Go Tribe.

Wedge, I concede that I misread your initial post. You did indeed say if you get Tribe and As. I misread because you said "strohs to lose" instead of "As to win".My payouts are a reflection of Tribe at +145 and Astros at -210 (not As at whatever they were).My point remains though, and T-Bone basically reiterated that it was much lower than 8-1 and he probability was much larger than 12% for both instances to occur