ND with 2 tough road games left has a lot left before being in that final 4

Ole Miss plays at LSU on Saturday and hosts Auburn next weekend. If they get through that, it's looking good until the Egg Bowl.

If they go 11-0, but lose in the Egg Bowl to a 10-1 MSU team, the Rebs look pretty good for one of the Final Four spots.

Azubuike24;1664876 wrote:Ole Miss plays at LSU on Saturday and hosts Auburn next weekend. If they get through that, it's looking good until the Egg Bowl.

If they go 11-0, but lose in the Egg Bowl to a 10-1 MSU team, the Rebs look pretty good for one of the Final Four spots.

I think they'll have to wn the Egg Bowl to make it because I think they will lose before it.

Maybe, but I'm assuming the following, and if this happens, we have some serious controversy because of the new SEC tiebreak rule.

Alabama wins out, finishing 11-1
Mississippi State loses to Alabama, wins the Egg Bowl, finishing 11-1
Ole Miss loses the Egg Bowl, finishing 11-1

This puts Alabama at 11-1 (loss to MISS), Mississippi at 11-1 (loss to MSU), Mississippi State at 11-1 (loss to ALA). A 3-way tie, all 1-1 against each other and no other losses in the SEC West.

The SEC tiebreaker would go all the way to the 7th level, and instead of using highest BCS ranking, they are now using combined SEC record of the team's cross-divisional opponents. So, this means the combined record of their SEC East opponents would determine the tiebreaker. Right now...

Mississippi (Tennessee and Vanderbilt): 0-7 thus far
Mississippi State (Kentucky and Vanderbilt): 2-6 thus far
Alabama (Tennessee and Florida): 2-6 thus far

The advantage would significantly shift to Alabama. Vanderbilt is going to go 0-8 in the SEC, which would make it tough for a tiebreaker not to favor Alabama.

The question would be...you would have THREE SEC teams with 1 loss, 2 of them won't play in the SEC Title Game and all of them will likely be ranked in the top 5. Assuming 2 make the playoff, who doesn't? It will be a really difficult decision...

Doesn't sound like a difficult decision to me. Win the SEC Championship, you're in!

This obviously assumes the tiebreaker winner (Bama, likely) wins the SEC-CG. What about the other 2 is the real question? One, if not both, will almost assuredly be in the top 4. Definitely MSU would be in this scenario...and if Ole Miss wins out, they are probably #1 at the time of that game.

I still think if we guessed our 4 now.....most couldn't get 3 right

Azubuike24;1665149 wrote:This obviously assumes the tiebreaker winner (Bama, likely) wins the SEC-CG. What about the other 2 is the real question? One, if not both, will almost assuredly be in the top 4. Definitely MSU would be in this scenario...and if Ole Miss wins out, they are probably #1 at the time of that game.

If you were trying to pick between 2 teams in your scenario with 1-loss each, I don't know how you wouldn't choose the winner of the head-to-head matchup.

Correct, if you're having to pick one OR the other. My question leans more toward, do BOTH get considered? Does a 1-point Ole Miss loss on the road at MSU, with a similar ending to ND/FSU, really decipher who had the better season?

Not that I think Notre Dame is deserving, but the way I see it, that loss at FSU, if they go unbeaten and are the consensus #1, is about the best thing ND could have shy of being unbeaten. Their ranking has basically reflected that, and will continue to as long as they keep winning. Basically, even in a loss, Notre Dame still has a lock on a playoff spot if they win out.

Azubuike24;1666145 wrote:Correct, if you're having to pick one OR the other. My question leans more toward, do BOTH get considered? Does a 1-point Ole Miss loss on the road at MSU, with a similar ending to ND/FSU, really decipher who had the better season?

Not that I think Notre Dame is deserving, but the way I see it, that loss at FSU, if they go unbeaten and are the consensus #1, is about the best thing ND could have shy of being unbeaten. Their ranking has basically reflected that, and will continue to as long as they keep winning. Basically, even in a loss, Notre Dame still has a lock on a playoff spot if they win out.

I'd like for it to play out where Winston is suspended and FSU loses a couple of close games without him. Then, instead of two spots sewn up by FSU and the SEC champ, it's only one spot that is claimed. The committee would probably concede that FSU would have been undefeated with Winston (helping ND's case), and it frees up a team that has a spot locked down. I'd rather see ND fighting for 1 of 3 spots, instead of 1 of 2, if they are among several 1 loss teams at the end of the year.

True, but I think ND is an absolute lock if they go 11-1 and FSU goes 12-0. There's no way they get left out. It would be the Pac 12 champ, 2nd SEC team, Big XII champ and then B1G champ fighting after that.

Right now, if Oregon, ASU, Arizona, Utah, Ohio State, Michigan State, Kansas State and Baylor all lose, those leagues won't be represented at all.

Azubuike24;1666160 wrote:True, but I think ND is an absolute lock if they go 11-1 and FSU goes 12-0. There's no way they get left out. It would be the Pac 12 champ, 2nd SEC team, Big XII champ and then B1G champ fighting after that.

Right now, if Oregon, ASU, Arizona, Utah, Ohio State, Michigan State, Kansas State and Baylor all lose, those leagues won't be represented at all.

You don't snub THREE conference champs for a 2nd place SEC team.

ernest_t_bass;1666184 wrote:You don't snub THREE conference champs for a 2nd place SEC team.

We'll see, if it's a 1-loss Alabama or 1-loss Egg Bowl participant, it's almost guaranteed that those teams will be in the top 4.

Also, there's no assurance that a team from any of those leagues will have a 1-loss or 0-loss champ. A 2-loss team definitely isn't making it...

They are going to take who they feel who are the 4 best teams.

Azubuike24;1666226 wrote:We'll see, if it's a 1-loss Alabama or 1-loss Egg Bowl participant, it's almost guaranteed that those teams will be in the top

Lol. No. It's not

ernest_t_bass;1666184 wrote:You don't snub THREE conference champs for a 2nd place SEC team.

If those teams all lose again, they'd all finish with two losses. I see your point re: one-loss conference champion vs. one-loss SEC non-champion, but when it's a 2-loss conference champion against a one-loss non-champ, things are a bit different.

I think that you're placing too much value over Notre Dame's close loss to an over-rated Florida State team. This year's version is not even close to last season's NC team, however with that being said, should Notre Dame win out they have played a very good schedule and would be very much in the mix ( and with their National TV drawing power probably in) but I doubt that they win out. I do think that the winner of Ohio State- Michigan State will win out but that still may not be enough. There should not be 2 teams in from the same conference if you have 4 other 1 loss or less teams, if you can't even win your division in your conference ( not even playing for a conference championship) how do you qualify to play for the NC.

My prediction is:
1)Miss St
2)FSU
3) OSU
4) ND

OSU blows out ND in the title game.

0311sdp;1666450 wrote:if you can't even win your division in your conference ( not even playing for a conference championship) how do you qualify to play for the NC.

Mostly because SEC

ernest_t_bass;1666270 wrote:Lol. No. It's not

So, you're saying if Alabama wins out, they won't be at the top of the polls (like top 2 or 3)? By elimination, that would include beating the #1 team and knocking them back?

Still wonder if predicted this late if anyone could get all 4 correct.

The early Oklahoma love was fun.

See post #19...still got 3 of 'em alive. Nobody else close.

Lol...yeah go Oklahoma!

I'll say it slower for you...still...got...3...of...'em...alive...nobody...else...close.

IggyPride00;1656188 wrote:No chance a Big 10 team makes it after getting waxed in Oregon. The conference is such a joke to begin with, and then having the standard bearers embarrased in OOC play is a bridge too far.

The SEC champ, Big 12 champ, Oregon and FSU will be the final 4.

IggyPride00;1656221 wrote:The Big 10 has absolutely no credibility nationally. They are 5th of the 5 big conferences, so by default their champion will be the one left out.

Pick6;1660648 wrote:Saw some writer on twitter (forget who it was) saying that if either OSU or MSU run the table, they will be in the playoff. I can see MSU. OSU is currently 20th. Havent broken it down, but I see them probably landing somewhere between 13-15 after all the upsets. They have one big game left vs MSU. If they win that, they are playing Nebaska or Wisconsin in the B1G championship. Chances are they will be lowly ranked or not ranked at all. Nebraska will slip up and Wisconsin just lost to 3-2 Northwestern...I dont see how they can make up that much room with that schedule left, but crazier things have happened.

Lets hope for a lot of losing. The SEC teams taking turns taking each other out will be fun to watch.

Always fun to look back.

It is fun to look back at who had 3 of the 4 back in Sept....genius.