As conference tournament week draws near, Florida, Arizona and Wichita State are basically shoe-ins for top seeds. Positioning for that final slot on the top line, however, should get pretty interesting over the next week or two.

The most likely candidates:

Wisconsin
Record: 24-5
RPI: 5
SOS: 2
vs. AP Top 25: 5-2
vs. RPI Top 50: 8-3
Last 8:
Best Wins: Florida, @Virginia, Saint Louis, Iowa, @Iowa, @Michigan, Michigan State

Duke
Record: 23-6
RPI: 8
SOS: 8
vs. RPI Top 25: 4-4
vs. RPI Top 50: 5-4
Last 8:
Best Wins: Michigan, UCLA, Virginia, @Pitt, Syracuse

Kansas
Record: 22-7
RPI: 2
SOS: 1
vs. RPI Top 25: 7-4
vs. RPI Top 50: 12-7
Best Wins: Duke, New Mexico, @Iowa State, Iowa State, @Oklahoma

Syracuse
Record: 26-3
RPI: 6
SOS: 66
vs. RPI Top 25: 3-2
vs. RPI Top 50: 7-2
Best Wins: Villanova, North Carolina, Pitt, Duke

Not as likely, but still possible:

Villanova
Record: 26-3
RPI: 5
SOS: 39
vs. RPI Top 25: 1-3
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-3
Best Wins: Kansas, Iowa, @Saint Joe's

Virginia
Record: 25-5
RPI: 10
SOS: 26
vs. RPI Top 25: 2-3
vs. RPI Top 50: 4-4
Best Wins: SMU, North Carolina, @Pitt, Syracuse

Creighton
Record: 23-5
RPI: 9
SOS: 23
vs. RPI Top 25: 2-1
vs. RPI Top 50: 5-3
Best Wins: @Villanova, Villanova, Arizona State, California, St. John's, @Saint Joe's

I don't pay much attention to "bracket scientist" Joe Lunardi, but he currently has Kansas as the final top seed in his latest mock. If Kansas and Duke/Syracuse win out, it'll be an extremely close call. The Orange would have the best case of all three in the event they win out (in that scenario it would be Syracuse vs. Kansas and 3 losses > 7. Pretty simple math there).

If neither Kansas nor Syracuse nor Duke win its conference tournament, and Wisconsin does, then the Badgers are the most logical choice as next in line IMO.

Column by Pat Forde I read today has his opinion as Kansas being the top pick for a #1 now, with Wisconsin being the main team waiting in the wings.

I like Kansas. They have played so many tough teams this season. Easily the best schedule.

Cuse

It's gotta be Kansas if they win out. Have you seen that schedule? Wow

SportsAndLady;1586920 wrote:It's gotta be Kansas if they win out. Have you seen that schedule? Wow

I believe they have the #1 sos, correct?

Yeah the only way it's anyone other than Kansas is if the Jayhawks lose. And if they make the Big12 championship and none of the other prominent teams make their respective finals, they still very well could be it.

vball10set;1586925 wrote:I believe they have the #1 sos, correct?

Yeah it's in the first post. Lost the #1 rpi recently. They're 2 now.

SportsAndLady;1586928 wrote:Yeah it's in the first post.

:RpS_blushing:

If Kansas and Syracuse each wins out, I think it goes to the Orange. No doubt KU played a grueling OOC schedule, but Syracuse is still ranked ahead of them in the major polls and would have four fewer losses. That's a big advantage IMO. Winning out means Syracuse would've remained in the Top 5 pretty much the entire year, wavering only slightly down the stretch before regrouping and winning the ACC, which is without question the strongest conference in the country at the top right now with four teams ranked in the AP Top 15 (versus the Big XII's one) and four teams ranked in Kenpom's Top 25 (versus Big XII's two).

RPI and OOC SOS aside, is a 27-7 Big XII champion Kansas more deserving than a 31-3 ACC champion Syracuse? I personally do not think so.

With that said, Kansas is indisputably a better team than Syracuse. I believe Syracuse is no higher than the third best team in the ACC and will lose earlier than their seeding in the Big Dance.

reclegend22;1586948 wrote:If Kansas and Syracuse each wins out, I think it goes to the Orange. No doubt KU played a grueling OOC schedule, but Syracuse is still ranked ahead of them in the major polls and would have four fewer losses. That's a big advantage IMO. Winning out means Syracuse would've remained in the Top 5 pretty much the entire year, wavering only slightly down the stretch before regrouping and winning the ACC, which is without question the strongest conference in the country at the top right now with four teams ranked in the AP Top 15 (versus the Big XII's one) and four teams ranked in Kenpom's Top 25 (versus Big XII's two).

RPI and OOC SOS aside, is a 27-7 Big XII champion Kansas more deserving than a 31-3 ACC champion Syracuse? I personally do not think so.

It might be better at the top, but the ACC isn't without question the best conference in the country.

SportsAndLady;1586950 wrote:It might be better at the top, but the ACC isn't without question the best conference in the country.

Agreed. I meant purely at the top.

Overall, from top to bottom, I'd give the edge to the Big XII.

If Duke is on this list, might as well put Ohio State in the running for a #1 seed.

Really the debate comes down to Syracuse or Kansas and I think you have to give it to Kansas at this point.

In that case, might as well throw Berlin Hiland into the hat as well.

Here's what the bare-bones résumés would look like if Kansas and Syracuse each does not lose moving forward. RPI is still included since neither team's is likely to change significantly.

Kansas
Record: 27-7
RPI: 2
Current AP Rank: #8
Best Wins to Date: Duke, New Mexico, @Iowa State, Iowa State, @Oklahoma

Syracuse
Record: 31-3
RPI: 6
Current AP Rank: #7
Best Wins to Date: Villanova, North Carolina, Pitt, Duke

I think at the moment Syracuse owns the better selection of wins, and moving ahead the Orange are IMO better positioned than Kansas to add to that list, being that to win the ACC Tournament Syracuse will likely need to beat at least one (possibly two) of North Carolina, Duke or Virginia along the way. Kansas could beat Iowa State a third time, but it wouldn't be quite as impressive as a win against any of the aforementioned ACC teams.

reclegend22;1586948 wrote:RPI and OOC SOS aside, is a 27-7 Big XII champion Kansas more deserving than a 31-3 ACC champion Syracuse? I personally do not think so.

Didn't UVA just lock up the ACC championship? I put more stock in a regular season that a 4 day tourney.

slingshot4ever;1586986 wrote:Didn't UVA just lock up the ACC championship? I put more stock in a regular season that a 4 day tourney.

Not to start this debate again -- cue Adhonis -- but the official ACC champion is the winner of the ACC Tournament. It has been this way since the origin of the conference in the early 1960s, but it's especially appropriate today considering the ACC's markedly unbalanced conference schedules. For instance, Virginia only played Duke, North Carolina and Syracuse once, and got both the Tar Heels and Orange at home in Charlottesville.

That is a considerable advantage for Virginia. It was by far the easiest of the ACC schedules this year.

I assure you the committee cares more about the acc reg season then their tourney. I also can assure you they don't give a fuck where someone is ranked in the polls all year. That is proven every year.

Laley23;1586989 wrote:I assure you the committee cares more about the acc reg season then their tourney. I also can assure you they don't give a fuck where someone is ranked in the polls all year. That is proven every year.

I am confident a 31-3, higher-ranked Syracuse will get a one seed.

I also love all of your generalities. As if just because you say it, it's so. There have been multiple years where the committee has waited to see who the winner of the ACC Tournament is to decide a final number one seed. Duke, for example, has benefited from this on multiple occasions. The champion of the ACC Tournament will be weighed heavily into this decision.

The unbalanced schedule, because it is often so extreme in the ACC with the expansion in recent years, without question removes some luster from the regular-season winner.

With Syracuse traveling farther and farther off the rails, Kansas pretty much controls its destiny at this point. With Kentucky heading in the same direction as Syracuse and at risk of slipping into an 8/9 game, anyone else foresee a Wildcat trip to the East for a potential second round encounter with Andrew Wiggins in St. Louis?

I think I'd like to see that game.

reclegend22;1586992 wrote:I also love all of your generalities. As if just because you say it, it's so. There have been multiple years where the committee has waited to see who the winner of the ACC Tournament is to decide a final number one seed. Duke, for example, has benefited from this on multiple occasions. The champion of the ACC Tournament will be weighed heavily into this decision.

The unbalanced schedule, because it is often so extreme in the ACC with the expansion in recent years, without question removes some luster from the regular-season winner.

Im not saying they dont look at the ACC Tournament or other conference tournaments. Im saying if push comes to shove on a resume, they would look at the Regular Season over the Tourney...no matter that the ACC crowns their champion from the tourney.

Indiana last year lost to Minny in the BTT and got a 1 seed. Im sure there are examples we can find to support your side, but (good for me lol) they can not possibly be anything by speculation. If they win the tourney, you cant say they didnt also have a resume to support it in the reg season. On the flip side, if a team (like IU last year) bombs out, you can still say it was the Reg season that got the 1 seed.

I mean, if Duke wins the ACCT, it isnt like they wouldnt deserve a 1 seed. But Virginia didnt NOT get the 1 seed because they lost in the ACCT, they didnt get it because Duke had a great resume as well and it was boosted by the ACCT. Dukes OOC would be the difference here.

reclegend22;1586990 wrote:I am confident a 31-3, higher-ranked Syracuse will get a one seed.

That may be the case, but there is NO DOUBT it is because of resume and not because the coaches and AP voted them higher. Thats my point. How many years have teams finished somewhere in the Top 25 and then the seeds dont match that at all?

Laley23;1587079 wrote:That may be the case, but there is NO DOUBT it is because of resume and not because the coaches and AP voted them higher. Thats my point. How many years have teams finished somewhere in the Top 25 and then the seeds dont match that at all?

I get that the AP poll isn't a deciding factor, I simply added that "stat" to my chart above just for the hell of it. My main reason for putting Syracuse (prior to tonight obviously) ahead of Kansas was the larger body of work (record, better big wins, etc.)

Laley23 wrote:Indiana last year lost to Minny in the BTT and got a 1 seed. Im sure there are examples we can find to support your side, but (good for me lol) they can not possibly be anything by speculation. If they win the tourney, you cant say they didnt also have a resume to support it in the reg season. On the flip side, if a team (like IU last year) bombs out, you can still say it was the Reg season that got the 1 seed.

An example in my favor would be Duke and North Carolina in 2011. The Tar Heels won the ACC regular-season outright that year, splitting games with Duke. They ultimately met again in the ACC Tournament final, with UNC standing at 26-6 and Duke 29-4 heading into the matchup. It was widely accepted that the ACC would get one of the top seeds. Many believed that UNC, having won the ACC regular-season and beaten Duke once already, would still get it with a loss. Duke beat them by double figures, however, and captured the last No. 1.

So, as you point out, there are examples supporting both sides of the argument.