I went 3-1 yesterday.

Won: Cowboys, Colts and Miami
Lost: Carolina (good God they look awful)

Have KC tonight.

My weekend was terrible until I took the only bet I won and put that money a Parlay Cowboys SU and the over on the game last night. Profitted $217 and ended up $80 bucks for the weekend. I put $50 on the Pats 1st Half line -.5 and put the other $30 on the Pats -3 for tonight.

I also just put $10 on the Colts for the SB. I dont think they will win, but at +2800, it was worth it. I had them going 12-4 (since their toughest games are at home) before the season, so I expect their odds to be closer to 10-1 when the playoffs roll around.

I have KC +4.5, thinking about trying to double up with KC ML.

If Charles is 100% healthy, I think KC is favored, so I think the smart play is on them. But, he might be really hampered and KC wont be able to get it going.

Laley23;1658600 wrote:I also just put $10 on the Colts for the SB. I dont think they will win, but at +2800, it was worth it. I had them going 12-4 (since their toughest games are at home) before the season, so I expect their odds to be closer to 10-1 when the playoffs roll around.

I put $10 on the Cowboys to win the SB at the start of the year +6600. If I win either/both bets tonight I'm probably going to throw some money down on them and the Giants to win the NFC East. Cowboys are currently +220 and Giants are +500. I think 1 of those 2 teams win it.

Laley23;1658602 wrote:I have KC +3.5, thinking about trying to double up with KC ML.

If Charles is 100% healthy, I think KC is favored, so I think the smart play is on them. But, he might be really hampered and KC wont be able to get it going.

Yeah if you're going to bet it now just take the ML. It's been bet down to a +3 right now. I just think that eventually Brady gets it going and don't think the Chiefs D is that great.

I see it at +25 actually. Which is worrisome. Public is all over the Chiefs, but I am just basing off of what I think it would be if Charles had played the last 2 weeks. My guess? KC would be favored by 1-2 pts.

So I am banking on him being helathy enough for that 1 TD swing in KCs favor.

Laley23;1658612 wrote:I see it at +25 actually. Which is worrisome. Public is all over the Chiefs, but I am just basing off of what I think it would be if Charles had played the last 2 weeks. My guess? KC would be favored by 1-2 pts.

So I am banking on him being helathy enough for that 1 TD swing in KCs favor.

Jesus that means in the last 30 minutes it got bet down from 3 to 2.5. I just made my bets like 40 minutes ago.

Iliketurtles;1658616 wrote:Jesus that means in the last 30 minutes it got bet down from 3 to 2.5. I just made my bets like 40 minutes ago.

Im on BetOnline, so maybe different then your site.

BUT, it was +3.5 as of Saturday morning...so a full point in 2 days.

Yeah... It's still 3 on sportsbook. I think it droped from 3.5 to 3 sometime yesterday afternoon. I know like you said it was still 3.5 on Saturday. Pretty crazy for it to change that much. I'm definitely liking that I'm different from the public.

I agree. I am happy I got KC on Tuesday at +4.5.

Made decent money by doubling down on KC last week. Got them at +4.5 early, then took the ML. Solid start to the first month of NFL betting (really the only thing I bet on till CBK...though I will bet on MLB since the playoffs have started).

Anyone like any lines this week?

First look, I like Cleveland (-1), Chicago (+2.5) and Indianapolis (-3.5).

The rest of the spreads are pretty large, so I never feel confident when they are first released. Will have to wait on them after doing some research and taking your feedback.

I havent won a bet (not hyperbole) this season. Need a break. Can't resist though. I'll be blowing more this wknd.

SportsAndLady;1659313 wrote:I havent won a bet (not hyperbole) this season. Need a break. Can't resist though. I'll be blowing more this wknd.

You are beyond due. Whatever your next bet is, let me know...Im gonna put 1k on it lol.

I just continue to lose whatever I win... I guess it's better than losing all my money. I haven't really looked at the lines for the weekend no BS Report with Cousin Sal really sucked since I always listen to them to just see what the lines are at the start of the week.

Iliketurtles;1659364 wrote:I just continue to lose whatever I win... I guess it's better than losing all my money. I haven't really looked at the lines for the weekend no BS Report with Cousin Sal really sucked since I always listen to them to just see what the lines are at the start of the week.

Not to tell you how to bet, but I have developed a strategy that seems to work for the NFL (winning seasons the last 4, and already 10-6 (7) this year)...

I pick ONLY 4 games. I dont care if I like 7 games, I just pick 4 and ride them. If I win all four and they are at 1pm, I wont go and bet the 4pm, SNF or MNF. Just straight pick 4 NFL games a week, for all days.

One time this year I got greedy cause I liked 5 games, instead of breaking even and going 2-2, I went 2-3 and the 3rd loss was the 5th game I took.

I like this strategy because I think the discipline limits the mistakes you can make by "overbetting". It also like it because it allows me to really look at a lot of different scenarios/opinions/computer picks/whatever and come to a conclusion. For the most part, I find 6-7 games I like, then compare them to the computer simulator, then to guys whose opinion I value (Cowherd is pretty fucking good). When I have 2-3 matches across the boards, I roll with it. Then fill in the holes for the last bets I am going to make.

This also keeps you from betting what you have won, until the next week, and again you are only betting 4 games...

Of course, you might have an issue I dont in that you bet college, mlb, etc. I really only do NFL and CBK. I get involved only for the playoffs of the other leagues, or maybe a big CFB game that I am going to be watching, but without a rooting interest without money on the line lol.

That keeps me from gambling away any winnings, and I have found I am pretty damn good at handicapping my own NFL games and CBK games, which is the ONLY way I can make money...4 years running, I have yet to replenish my account and have cashed out 2 times.

Laley23;1659374 wrote:Not to tell you how to bet, but I have developed a strategy that seems to work for the NFL (winning seasons the last 4, and already 10-6 (7) this year)...

I pick ONLY 4 games. I dont care if I like 7 games, I just pick 4 and ride them. If I win all four and they are at 1pm, I wont go and bet the 4pm, SNF or MNF. Just straight pick 4 NFL games a week, for all days.

One time this year I got greedy cause I liked 5 games, instead of breaking even and going 2-2, I went 2-3 and the 3rd loss was the 5th game I took.

I like this strategy because I think the discipline limits the mistakes you can make by "overbetting". It also like it because it allows me to really look at a lot of different scenarios/opinions/computer picks/whatever and come to a conclusion. For the most part, I find 6-7 games I like, then compare them to the computer simulator, then to guys whose opinion I value (Cowherd is pretty fucking good). When I have 2-3 matches across the boards, I roll with it. Then fill in the holes for the last bets I am going to make.

Haha I normally do only bet big on like 4-5 games. I just do a bunch of stupid teasers/parlays/prop bets.

Yeah Cowherd has been fucking money I think hes up to over 80% on the year. Also check out Stanford Steve from SVP I think he's like 19-5-1 or something on college football picks for the year and he makes his picks on Tuesdays.

Iliketurtles;1659379 wrote:Haha I normally do only bet big on like 4-5 games. I just do a bunch of stupid teasers/parlays/prop bets.

Yeah Cowherd has been fucking money I think hes up to over 80% on the year. Also check out Stanford Steve from SVP I think he's like 19-5-1 or something on college football picks for the year and he makes his picks on Tuesdays.

Cowherd was lights out 2 and 3 yrs ago. 2 years ago he was so damn good, his blazing 5 actually moved Vegas lines (according to RJ Bell). He was bad/average last year, but is killing it again this year.

Laley23;1659330 wrote:You are beyond due. Whatever your next bet is, let me know...Im gonna put 1k on it lol.

Idk man. I can't fucking win. I mean granted I'm doing parlays but like 3-5 game parkays. You'd think with 10 parlays I could hit at least 1. Nope.

It's probably been 2 single game bets, four 3-game parlays, 2 four-game parlays, and 2 five-game parlays.

Haven't won one.

Even in college games I have won one bet and it was a $10 bet I made on notre dame beating Michigan lol

SportsAndLady;1659417 wrote:Idk man. I can't fucking win. I mean granted I'm doing parlays but like 3-5 game parkays. You'd think with 10 parlays I could hit at least 1. Nope.

It's probably been 2 single game bets, four 3-game parlays, 2 four-game parlays, and 2 five-game parlays.

Haven't won one.

Even in college games I have won one bet and it was a $10 bet I made on notre dame beating Michigan lol

Oh ok. Makes more sense with Parlays. I thought you hadnt hit on a straight up bet in 3 weeks lol. That is almost impossible to do.

Laley23;1659418 wrote:Oh ok. Makes more sense with Parlays. I thought you hadnt hit on a straight up bet in 3 weeks lol. That is almost impossible to do.

Oh no. I'd kill myself.

The parlays are not high odds though. I'm my betting any MLs or crazy upsets. Just 50/50 odds. Fucking fuck. I cleaned up last year on the NFL. Not so much so far this year. But I'll continue to make the deposits lol

SportsAndLady;1659422 wrote:Oh no. I'd kill myself.

The parlays are not high odds though. I'm my betting any MLs or crazy upsets. Just 50/50 odds. Fucking fuck. I cleaned up last year on the NFL. Not so much so far this year. But I'll continue to make the deposits lol

Most places pay 6 to 1 on 3 teamers, somewhere between 10-12 to 1 on 4 teamers and 22 to 1 on 5 teamers.

So mathematically, you aren't really in bad shape. If you play one 5 team parlay per week, you have an entire regular season plus 5 weeks of the next season to hit just 1...to break even. Any more than that and you are cleaning up.

Keep the faith, you are bound to hit them if you are picking winners. Can't look at the short term when you are playing big parlays. You could go 8-10 weeks without hitting a 3 or 4 teamer and then hit on back to back weeks and all of sudden you are up for the year.

Personally, nothing goes in a parlay for me unless I have a straight bet on it as well. There is nothing worth than hitting 2 of 3 or 3 of 4 and not having anything to show for it. If you hit 3 of 4...you have done really well but if you only have a parlay...you just have a losing bet instead of a winning day.

If I do a parlay, I am doing a robin.

Smaller bets, but basically all the possible outcomes are parlayed. It adds up, even if you hit like 3/5 or 4/6

Also, who does everyone like tonight?

Thinking of taking Minnesota regardless of Ponder or TB.