Archive Your Top 4 in each region....predictions

Ironman92

Posts: 49,363

Mar 2, 2013 10:17am

Cleveland Buck;1398864 wrote:Minnesota has 4 top 25 RPI wins, the same as Ohio State. Minnesota has 12 top 100 RPI wins, twice as many as Ohio State, and more than all but a handful of teams. They have one questionable loss, on the road outside the top 100, which gave them a little hit in the formula. When I saw where they were ranked I double and triple checked it, but they do have a much better resume than Ohio State.

Bet or not?

Cleveland Buck

Posts: 5,126

Mar 2, 2013 10:18am

SportsAndLady;1398843 wrote:Haha what sort of formula is going on here? If you beat a couple good teams, you're a top 3 seed?

KSU 9? OSU 9? Colorado 6? Akron 13? Minnesota a 2?!?!

The formula is simple, you get so many points for top 25 wins road/neutral, top 25 wins home, 26-50 wins road/neutral, 26-50 home, 51-100 road/neutral, 51-100 home, and then you lose points for 101-200 road losses, 101-200 home, 201+ road, 201+ home losses. Then you add up the points.

Cleveland Buck

Posts: 5,126

Mar 2, 2013 10:19am

Ironman92;1398867 wrote:Bet or not?

Bet what? The bracket will look nothing like this. Ohio State's name will get them a higher seed than they deserve.

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 2, 2013 10:23am

Cleveland Buck;1398869 wrote:Bet what? The bracket will look nothing like this. Ohio State's name will get them a higher seed than they deserve.

I believe he was referring to his $700,000,000 bet, which I would advise you not to take.

SportsAndLady

Posts: 35,632

Mar 2, 2013 10:46am

Cleveland Buck;1398868 wrote:The formula is simple, you get so many points for top 25 wins road/neutral, top 25 wins home, 26-50 wins road/neutral, 26-50 home, 51-100 road/neutral, 51-100 home, and then you lose points for 101-200 road losses, 101-200 home, 201+ road, 201+ home losses. Then you add up the points.

No deduction for losses to teams under 100 rpi?

sleeper

Posts: 27,879

Mar 2, 2013 11:04am

reclegend22;1398628 wrote:If Duke beats Miami at home -- and with Ryan Kelly most definitely playing in that game, the Blue Devils will likely win -- and then goes on to win the ACC Tournament, they are almost assured a No. 1 seed. No matter what anyone else does. Even with a loss at North Carolina. At 31-5, the Blue Devils would also have the No. 1 RPI and No. 2 SOS with at least eight victories against the RPI top 40, and possibly nine or 10 depending on who Duke faces in the ACC Tournament.

That's a No. 1 seed all day long.

They will be the first team to lose to a #16 seed then just like they got BLOWN OUT by Lehigh as a 2 seed. :thumbup:

Ironman92

Posts: 49,363

Mar 2, 2013 12:22pm

sleeper;1398895 wrote:They will be the first team to lose to a #16 seed then just like they got BLOWN OUT by Lehigh as a 2 seed. :thumbup:

Fuck I hope they don't lose to the Tartlets again.

Ironman92

Posts: 49,363

Mar 2, 2013 12:31pm

Cleveland Buck;1398869 wrote:Bet what? The bracket will look nothing like this. Ohio State's name will get them a higher seed than they deserve.

I appreciate the time and effort you threw into it but a few too little or a few too many points are awarded somewhere in your process. Do you have beating a #3 team the same points as beating a #22? Is beating the #52 team at their place worth as much as beating the #96 team on your home court?

Again, I don't know your formula but maybe taking all of their top 100 wins (maybe minus 5-10 points for each one done on the road) and then get an average ranking of the top 100 teams defeated....then divide that by how many total wins against the top 100....the lower the number the better....bad losses could be added as well....could even multiply in a SOS factor, but a lot of work. Lol

Again....this was a prediction thread and I'm not arguing that your's is wrong or way off, but I am arguing there is no way in hell some of that stuff is even going to come close to happening.

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 2, 2013 9:52pm

Duke just put a stranglehold on a one seed tonight for the time being after its win over No. 5 Miami and guaranteed itself a two seed, barring losing every game from here on out. With a win over Va Tech and a good showing in the ACC Tournament, even with a loss to UNC in Chapel Hill, the Blue Devils are in really good shape.

Duke's Quick Glance Resume:

No. 1 RPI
No. 2 SOS
8 wins against the RPI Top 40
Wins against the #2, #3, #4, #5, #20 and #25 teams
4-1 record against RPI Top 25

I see some people here have Duke as low as a three seed. That's laughable.

Laley23

Posts: 29,506

Mar 2, 2013 10:07pm

reclegend22;1399208 wrote:Duke just put a stranglehold on a one seed tonight for the time being after its win over No. 5 Miami and guaranteed itself a two seed, barring losing every game from here on out. With a win over Va Tech and a good showing in the ACC Tournament, even with a loss to UNC in Chapel Hill, the Blue Devils are in really good shape.

Duke's Quick Glance Resume:

No. 1 RPI
No. 2 SOS
8 wins against the RPI Top 40
Wins against the #2, #3, #4, #5, #20 and #25 teams
4-1 record against RPI Top 25

I see some people here have Duke as low as a three seed. That's laughable.

I had them lower than a 1 cause I had them losing 3 games. Miami, UNC and ACCT.

wildcats20

Posts: 27,794

Mar 2, 2013 10:07pm

reclegend22;1399208 wrote:Duke just put a stranglehold on a one seed tonight for the time being after its win over No. 5 Miami and guaranteed itself a two seed, barring losing every game from here on out. With a win over Va Tech and a good showing in the ACC Tournament, even with a loss to UNC in Chapel Hill, the Blue Devils are in really good shape.

Duke's Quick Glance Resume:

No. 1 RPI
No. 2 SOS
8 wins against the RPI Top 40
Wins against the #2, #3, #4, #5, #20 and #25 teams
4-1 record against RPI Top 25

I see some people here have Duke as low as a three seed. That's laughable.

The only way I see less than a 1 is if they lose to Carolina and then some how lose their first game in the ACCT.

Or a loss to God awful Tech.

sleeper

Posts: 27,879

Mar 2, 2013 10:10pm

reclegend22;1399208 wrote:Duke just put a stranglehold on a one seed tonight for the time being after its win over No. 5 Miami and guaranteed itself a two seed, barring losing every game from here on out. With a win over Va Tech and a good showing in the ACC Tournament, even with a loss to UNC in Chapel Hill, the Blue Devils are in really good shape.

Duke's Quick Glance Resume:

No. 1 RPI
No. 2 SOS
8 wins against the RPI Top 40
Wins against the #2, #3, #4, #5, #20 and #25 teams
4-1 record against RPI Top 25

I see some people here have Duke as low as a three seed. That's laughable.

I'll expect this kind of analysis during Duke football season. :laugh:

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 2, 2013 10:19pm

Laley23;1399218 wrote:I had them lower than a 1 cause I had them losing 3 games. Miami, UNC and ACCT.

Fair enough.

To be fair, my Georgetown No. 1 seed pick is looking pretty shaky, if not like a near impossibility, right now with Rutgers hanging around in Landover tonight. I thought the Hoyas had finally put it together after the convincing win at Syracuse. It looks like they are still playing down to their competition, which will certainly hurt them in the Big East Tournament (which is what I thought they'd win to earn a top seed).

Laley23

Posts: 29,506

Mar 2, 2013 10:22pm

reclegend22;1399227 wrote:Fair enough.

To be fair, my Georgetown No. 1 seed pick is looking pretty shaky, if not like a near impossibility, right now with Rutgers hanging around in Landover tonight. I thought the Hoyas had finally put it together after the convincing win at Syracuse. It looks like they are still playing down to their competition, which will certainly hurt them in the Big East Tournament (which is what I thought they'd win to earn a top seed).

Yeah, these projections are so hard. So many games versus teams we are seeding which essentially can flip flop each other. I made these before I knew Kelly was going to be back for Duke. I still think they have to win the ACCT to get the 1 over Miami though, if Miami wins the ACC Reg and Tournament itll be tough to put Duke above them.

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 2, 2013 10:35pm

Laley23;1399229 wrote:Yeah, these projections are so hard. So many games versus teams we are seeding which essentially can flip flop each other. I made these before I knew Kelly was going to be back for Duke. I still think they have to win the ACCT to get the 1 over Miami though, if Miami wins the ACC Reg and Tournament itll be tough to put Duke above them.

I agree with that re Duke needing to win the ACC Tournament or Miami not winning it. As I said, even with its impressive resume right now, Duke will still have to put together an impressive showing in Greensboro at the league tourney. I see two plausible scenarios where Duke could get a one seed: Either winning the ACC Tournament (obviously) or getting to the finals and losing to anybody BUT Miami. If Miami wins the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes will probably -- and should -- get the nod. I guess Miami and Duke could BOTH get one seeds if Miami beat Duke in a close game in the ACC final, but that's likely a long shot.

Laley23

Posts: 29,506

Mar 2, 2013 10:39pm

reclegend22;1399233 wrote:I agree with that re Duke needing to win the ACC Tournament or Miami not winning it. As I said, even with its impressive resume right now, Duke will still have to put together an impressive showing in Greensboro at the league tourney. I see two plausible scenarios where Duke could get a one seed: Either winning the ACC Tournament (obviously) or getting to the finals and losing to anybody BUT Miami. If Miami wins the ACC Tournament, the Hurricanes will probably -- and should -- get the nod. I guess Miami and Duke could BOTH get one seeds if Miami beat Duke in a close game in the ACC final, but that's likely a long shot.

I think the B1G and ACC have a chance for 2 #1 seeds. But they need teams to lose in other conferences. LVille...GT...Zags...Kansas...etc.

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 2, 2013 10:44pm

Laley23;1399236 wrote:I think the B1G and ACC have a chance for 2 #1 seeds. But they need teams to lose in other conferences. LVille...GT...Zags...Kansas...etc.

That's why I think it's a long shot for Duke and Miami to both get it. Kansas will likely cake walk to a conference title and I envision Georgetown or Louisville winning the Big East Tournament at this point to join Indiana (who I think is already a one seed lock), Kansas and the winner of Duke/Miami in the ACC Tournament as the four number one seeds.

I know virtually everyone is saying Gonzaga is a one seed lock, but I think they'll end up with a two either because the other teams will have just put together more impressive resumes by the time conference tournament week is done or the Zags will get upset in the WCC finals, which has happened before during their better seasons.

sleeper

Posts: 27,879

Mar 2, 2013 10:48pm

At this point, I'm just hoping Ohio State doesn't have Miami, MSU, or Indiana in their region. I would love to have Duke be the 1 seed and Ohio State be that regions 5 seed so Ohio State can give Duke the exit out of the tournament.

Terry_Tate

Posts: 7,606

Mar 2, 2013 10:56pm

sleeper;1399239 wrote:At this point, I'm just hoping Ohio State doesn't have Miami, MSU, or Indiana in their region. I would love to have Duke be the 1 seed and Ohio State be that regions 5 seed so Ohio State can give Duke the exit out of the tournament.

Kansas, Miami, and Indiana are the 3 teams that I don't want to see.

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 2, 2013 10:57pm

sleeper;1399239 wrote:At this point, I'm just hoping Ohio State doesn't have Miami, MSU, or Indiana in their region. I would love to have Duke be the 1 seed and Ohio State be that regions 5 seed so Ohio State can give Duke the exit out of the tournament.

For somebody who thinks Duke is irrelevant, you sure give them a lot of thought.

sleeper

Posts: 27,879

Mar 2, 2013 11:04pm

reclegend22;1399243 wrote:For somebody who thinks Duke is irrelevant, you sure give them a lot of thought.

I don't think Duke is irrelevant. I think they are overrated to hell and have the worst fans in the world.

Mulva

Posts: 13,650

Mar 3, 2013 12:41am

I don't understand why anybody would be afraid of Miami.

S

sportswizuhrd

Posts: 3,215

Mar 3, 2013 12:48am

Cleveland Buck;1398794 wrote: 6 Seeds - Colorado, Oregon, Connecticut, Illinois

UConn is ineligible for postseason tourny's.

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 3, 2013 9:26am

I think if UConn were eligible, the Huskies would get to the Final Four. Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright would dominate in the NCAA Tournament. That is a great duo.

I think Napier is the best creator in the country at the lead guard position.

Crimson streak

Posts: 9,002

Mar 3, 2013 10:03am

reclegend22;1399307 wrote:I think if UConn were eligible, the Huskies would get to the Final Four. Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright would dominate in the NCAA Tournament. That is a great duo.

I think Napier is the best creator in the country at the lead guard position.

Napier is a chucker. Honestly If uconn was eligible I could see a first rd exit. If AO would have stayed and not went mizzou then I could have seen them as a final 4 team