gerb131;1324386 wrote:Colts were never going to win. They will fade down the stretch.

We discussed this last week. I penciled in losses for the Colts at New England, at Houston and vs Houston. That puts them at 6 losses.

They also host Buffalo, at Detroit, vs Tennessee and at Kansas City. They will be favored in 2-3 of those 4 games.

With a 9-7 finish, the Colts would beat out the Bengals for the last spot. The Bengals still have to go 5-1, while the Colts only have to go 3-3. Obviously if Indy goes 2-4, the Bengals can get in at 4-2, but still. The schedule doesn't necessarily favor Cincy as they play Baltimore and at Pittsburgh.

AFC East - Patriots (3 game lead w/6 left + division tiebreaker)
AFC South - Texans (3 game lead w/6 left + division tiebreaker)
AFC West - Broncos (3 game lead w/6 left + division tiebreaker)
AFC North - Ravens (2 game lead w/6 left + division tiebreaker) (if Baltimore wins tonight)

Steelers 6-4
Colts 6-4
Bengals 5-5

As I said, even if you eliminate EVERYONE outside of those 7, the Bengals could go 4-2 and still have absolutely zero shot. Even if the Bengals beat Pittsburgh, the Steelers would have to lose to the Browns, otherwise, the Bengals lose the tiebreaker if they are tied with Pittsburgh.

After Baltimore winning, I'm pretty confident in saying all 4 divisions are locked up. 3 of the 4 teams have essentially 4-game leads with 6 weeks left and the other has a 3-game lead with 6 to go.

Unfortunately for the Bengals, not only are they a game behind Pittsburgh, they also lose the tiebreaker to them, putting them 2 back. Add to that, their remaining match-up is in Pittsburgh.

If you're a Cincy fan...you have to root against the Colts every week otherwise a 4-2 finish (as projections would say) won't matter.

I honestly think the Colts fade down the stretch. Their schedule is not brutal, but they haven't been real good on the road. I still think they could end up 8-8. I think the Bengals can get to 9-7.

I am not confident, but I still feel like there is hope.