My prediction as of 10/20/12:
#1 Marlington hosts #8 Struthers
#2 West Holmes hosts #7 Indian Creek
#3 Steubenville hosts #6 Maysville
#4 Dover hosts #5 Granville
(#5 and #6 could easily switch.)

This is Drew Pasteur’s prediction:
Region 11 Projections
1) Marlington (Alliance) (9-1) 26.90
2) West Holmes (Millersburg) (9-1) 24.10
3) Steubenville (8-2) 23.77
4) Dover (8-2) 23.29
5) Maysville (Zanesville) (9-1) 21.95
6) Granville (9-1) 21.90
7) Indian Creek (Wintersville) (9-1) 20.66
8 ) Poland Seminary (Poland) (7-3) 19.62

The maximum win out and minimum win out matches Joe Eitel’s numbers for all teams listed except Steubenville’s maximum. I cannot determine if two of their opponents play this week. When you play teams from Washington DC, New York, West Virginia, and Canada it makes it more difficult. Have a few opinions on this, but will let it rest for now!

Rankings below are IF all teams win week 10:

Definitely playing week 11:
#1 Marlington Win 26.95 Lose 24.90 (Will host as #1 win or lose week 10)
#2 West Holmes Win 24.05 Lose 22.10 (Win and host.)
#4 Steubenville Win 23.61 Lose 20.77
#7 Maysville Win 21.45 Lose 20.05 (#6 and #7 too close to realistically call)

Win week 10 and play week 11.
#3 Struthers Win 23.70 Lose 19.65
#5 Dover Win 23.29 Lose 18.7
#6 Granville Win 21.05 Lose 18.60
#8 Indian Creek Win 20.66 Lose 19.26

Need to win week 10 and have Struthers, Dover, Granville, or Indian Creek lose.
#9 Philo Win 19.7 Lose 14.8

Need 2 of these 3 to lose (Philo, Dover, Granville) and for a few level 2 teams to beat teams with better records. (Drew Pasteur thinks they do a whole lot better with L2 points than I do.)
#10 Poland Seminary Win 18.6 Lose 17.06
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#1 Marlington (9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 45/10 + 224.5/10=26.95 Projected Average (Win Out Max 27.9 Win Out Min 25.95) (Approx. 24.9 if beaten by Alliance week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=39.5 , L2=189.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Alliance (3-6) & gained L2= 15 (through 9 weeks) Minus 2.05 from ave. if Alliance wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 20
Poland over Beaver Local (5), if Beaver wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Beaver wins
Streetsboro over Crestwood (0), if Crestwood wins (4.5) Add .45 to ave. if Crestwood wins
St. Thomas Aquinas over Canton Central Catholic (4.5), if CCC wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if CCC wins
Canton South over Louisville; Marlington beat both (5.5), if Louisville wins (5) Minus .05 from ave. if Louisville wins
West Branch over Salem (0), if Salem wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Salem wins
Carrollton vs. Minera; Marlington beat both (5)
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….
#2 West Holmes (9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 45/10 + 195.5/10=24.05 Projected Average (Win Out Max 24.75 Win Out Min 23.5) (Approx. 22.1 if beaten by Alliance week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=40.5 , L2=160.5
Week 10 L1=4.5 beat Clear Fork (3-6) & gained L2= 15 (through 9 weeks) Minus 1.95 from ave. if Clear Fork wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 20
Triway over Timkin (5.5), if Timkin wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Timkin wins
River View over Coshocton; West Holmes beat both (4.5), if Coshocton wins (5) Add .05 to ave. if Coshocton wins
Mansfield over Madison Comprehensive (0), if MC wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if MC wins
Ashland vs. Lexington; WH beat both (5.5)
Wooster over Orrville; WH beat both (4.5), if Orrville wins (5.5) Add .10 to ave. if Orrville wins
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….
#3 Struthers (7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 34.5/10 + 202.5/10=23.7 Projected Average (Win Out Max 23.7 Win Out Min 21.6) (Approx. 19.65 if beaten by Howland week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=29 , L2=141.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Howland (7-2) & gained L2= 35 (through 9 weeks) Minus 4.05 from ave. if Howland wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 26
Campbell Memorial over Girard (4.5), if Girard wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Girard wins
Lakeview over Newton (4.5), if Newton wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Newton wins
Field over Springfield (5.5), if Springfield wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Springfield wins
Hubbard over Canfield; Struthers beat both (5.5), if Canfield wins (5) Minus .05 from ave. if Canfield wins
Niles McKinley over Youngstown East (6), if YE wins (0) Minus .6 from ave. if YE wins
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….
#4 Steubenville (8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.2= 41.5/10 + 179/9.2=23.60652 Projected Average (Win Out Max 25.8891 Win Out Min 21.92176) (Approx. 20.76957 if beaten by Edison Local week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=36.5 , L2=142
Week 10 L1=5 beat Buchtel (4-5) & gained L2= 21.5 (through 9 weeks) Minus 2.83695 from ave. if Buchtel wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
Wilson DC over Dunbar DC (5), if Dunbar wins (0) Minus .54347 from ave. if Dunbar wins
Benedictine over Franciscan (5), if Franciscan wins (0) Minus .54347 from ave. if Franciscan wins
John Marshall over Brooke (0), if Brook wins (5.5) Add .59782 to ave. if Brooke wins
University over Morgantown (0), if Morgantown wins (5.5) Add .59782 to ave. if Morgantown wins
(Sat. Game) Timon NY over St. Francis NY (5.5), if St. F wins (0) Minus .59782 from ave. if Franciscan wins
Westinghouse PA – bye week ?
Sir Wilfred Laurier Collegiate (Canada) – bye week ?
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#5 Dover (8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 43/10 + 188/9.9=23.28989 Projected Average (Win Out Max 25.00706 Win Out Min 22.38081) (Approx. 18.69948 if beaten by New Philadelphia week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=37.5 , L2=133.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat New Philadelphia (8-1) & gained L2=40 (through 9 weeks) Minus 4.59040 from ave. if NP wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
Cleveland Heights over Shaw (0), if Shaw wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if Shaw wins
Hubbard over Canfield (0), if Canfield wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if Canfield wins
Claymont over West Muskingum (4.5), if WM wins (0) Minus .45454 from ave. if WM wins
Waite over Woodward (0), if Woodward wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if Woodward wins
Zanesville vs Marietta; Dover beat both (5.5)
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (4.5), if Meadowbrook wins (0) Minus .45454 from ave. if Meadowbrook wins
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….

#6 Granville (9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 41/10 + 174/10=21.5 Projected Average (Win Out Max 22.9 Win Out Min 20.9) (Approx. 18.6 if beaten by Columbus Academy week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=37, L2=134.5
Week 10 L1=4 beat Columbus Academy (5-4) & gained L2= 25 (through 9 weeks) Minus 2.9 from ave. if CA wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
Johnstown over Northridge (4.5), if Northridge wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Northridge wins
Centerburg over Utica (0), if Utica wins (4) Add .4 to ave. if Utica wins
Gallia Academy over Jackson (0), if Jackson wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Jackson wins
Bexley vs. Whitehall; Granville beat both (5)
Licking Valley over Heath (0), if Heath wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Heath wins
Newark Catholic over Lakewood (5), if Lakewood wins (3.5) Minus .15 from ave. if Lakewood wins
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#7 Maysville (9-1) L1/10 + L2/10= 42/10 + 172.5/10=21.45 Projected Average (Win Out Max 23.6 Win Out Min 21.45) (Approx. 20.05 if beaten by Morgan week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=37 , L2=154.5
Week 10 L1=5 Beat Morgan (2-7) & gained L2=9 (through 9 weeks) Minus 1.4 from ave. if Morgan wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 9
Granville beats Columbus Academy (0), if CA wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if CA wins
River View beats Coshocton (0), if Coshocton wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Coshocton wins
Claymont over West Muskingum (0), if WM wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if WM wins
John Glenn over Crooksville; Maysville beat both (4), if Crooksville wins (5) Add .1 to ave. if Crooksville wins
New Lex vs. Sheridan; Maysville beat both (5)
Tri-Valley over Philo (0), if TV wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Philo wins
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#8 Indian Creek (9-1) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 42/10 + 163/9.9=20.66464 Projected Average (Win Out Max 21.62423 Win Out Min 20.56364) (Approx. 19.25505 if beaten by Edison Local week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=37.5 , L2=139
Week 10 L1=4.5 beat Edison Local (2-7) & gained L2= 9.5 (through 9 weeks) Minus 1.40959 from ave. if EL wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14.5
East Liverpool vs. Weir; IC beat both (5)
Point Pleasant over Glen Oak (0), if GO wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if GO wins
Bellaire over Martins Ferry (4.5), if MF wins (4) Minus.05050 from ave. if BMF wins
St. Clairsville over Union Local (0), if UL wins (4.5) Add .45454 to ave. if UL wins
Harrison Central over Buckeye Local; IC beat both (5), if BL wins (4.5) Minus.05050 from ave. if BL wins
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#9 Philo (8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 39.5/10 + 157/10=19.7 Projected Average (Win Out Max 21.3 Win Out Min 18.7) (Approx. 14.8 if beaten by Tri-Valley week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=34 , L2=100
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Tri-Valley (9-0) & gained L2= 43.5 (through 9 weeks) Minus 4.9 from ave. if Beaver Local wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14
Warren Local beats Logan (5.5), if Logan wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Logan wins
River View beats Coshocton (4.5), if Coshocton wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Coshocton wins
Claymont over West Muskingum (0), if WM wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if WM wins
John Glenn over Crooksville; Philo beat both (4), if Crooksville wins (5) Add .1 to ave. if Crooksville wins
New Lex over Sheridan (0), if Sheridan wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Sheridan wins
Maysville over Morgan (0), if Morgan wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Morgan wins
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#10 Poland Seminary (7-3) L1/10 + L2/9.7= 37.5/10 + 144/9.7=18.59536 Projected Average (Win Out Max 20.24484 Win Out Min 18.54382) (Approx. 17.06443 if beaten by Beaver Local week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=32.5 , L2=128.5
Week 10 L1=5 beat Beaver Local (2-7) & gained L2= 10 (through 9 weeks) Minus 1.53092 from ave. if Beaver Local wins

New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 5.5
Barberton over Northwest (0), if NW wins (5.5) Add .56701 to ave. if NW wins
St. Thomas More - bye
Hubbard over Canfield; PS beat both (5.5), if Canfield wins (5) Minus .05154 from ave. if Canfield wins
Howland over Struthers (0), if Struthers wins (5.5) Add .56701 to ave. if Struthers wins
Niles McKinley over Youngstown East (0), if YE wins (5) Add .51546 to ave. if YE wins

Excellent analysis. Region 11 seems to be pretty stacked this year. Struthers, currently at #8 in the region with 17.3722 points, would be #2 in Regions 9 and 12 and #4 in Region 10. I think your analysis looks pretty good. It's interesting that Struthers can possibly remain at #8, even with a loss, but the numbers support that. Campbell Memorial should be favored over Girard, Lakeview over Newton Falls, Field over Springfield, Hubbard over Canfield, and Niles McKinley over Youngstown East. Obviously, that's a lot of contingencies, but those are all very winnable games for those schools. If those results do occur, Struthers would get its maximum average. The maximum average with a loss being 19.65, and the maximum average with a win being 23.7.

As your analysis shows, 19.65 could be enough to hold a slight edge over Poland, even if Poland beats Beaver Local. A win over Howland would likely bring Struthers to 23.7 and make a home game likely. It's kind of weird to think a 6-4 Struthers could finish ahead of 7-3 Poland, given Poland won the head-to-head, but Struthers has more quality wins. Poland even gamed the system a bit with its win over a weaker Canadian opponent that provided a boat load of computer points.