Middle class prefers Romney by 14%

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Q

QuakerOats

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8,740 posts
Sep 24, 2012 3:12 PM
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html


More bad news for the Divider-in-Chief.

The prez has lost very significant votes from every demographic (except illegals I presume); it could well be a Romney landslide.
Sep 24, 2012 3:12pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Sep 24, 2012 3:39 PM
QuakerOats;1279331 wrote:http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81584.html


More bad news for the Divider-in-Chief.

The prez has lost very significant votes from every demographic (except illegals I presume); it could well be a Romney landslide.

That's why President Obama is leading by huge numbers in young voters,blacks, and Latinos. He now leads on the economy and has almost caught Romney with older voters.

Please tell me how it's going to be a landslide for Romney?
Sep 24, 2012 3:39pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Sep 24, 2012 3:40 PM
Oh yeah....President Obama leads on Medicare too
Sep 24, 2012 3:40pm
Q

QuakerOats

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8,740 posts
Sep 24, 2012 3:47 PM
Ty Webb;1279368 wrote:That's why President Obama is leading by huge numbers in young voters,blacks, and Latinos. He now leads on the economy and has almost caught Romney with older voters.

Please tell me how it's going to be a landslide for Romney?


Maybe you need to reread what I posted. He has lost votes in every demographic (except perhaps illegals). He will obviously get majorities in some of the groups you mentioned, just not as many as last time, get it?

He will lose substantial votes from independants, Catholics, Jews, young people, (and even some blacks over his radical social policy positions).
Sep 24, 2012 3:47pm
G

gut

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15,058 posts
Sep 24, 2012 3:55 PM
A lot of these polls don't really add-up - very different and inconsistent results. It could be part oversampling eventhough the polls are supposed to be adjusted.

But the numbers that really strike me as bogus are the "likely to vote" or "extremely likely to vote". I'm not calling shennanigans, but what I am saying is that, over the phone, you can't put too much stock in this self-identified category (massive uncontrollable bias). I just don't see the enthusiasm and turnout with these two candidates. And given that, actual turnout in a race this close could result in huge swings and suprising results on election day.
Sep 24, 2012 3:55pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Sep 24, 2012 4:09 PM
President Obama leads Romney:

70-24 among Jewish voters

61-31 among young voters

46-45 among non Hispanic Catholics;49-41 among all Catholics

95-4 among black voters

Tell me how that amounts to a Romney landslide
Sep 24, 2012 4:09pm
Q

QuakerOats

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8,740 posts
Sep 24, 2012 4:54 PM
you'll figure it out ....eventually
Sep 24, 2012 4:54pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Sep 24, 2012 5:21 PM
I've already got it figured out Quaker....

When are you going to figure it out that Romney is in BIG trouble right now?
Sep 24, 2012 5:21pm
F

Footwedge

Senior Member

9,265 posts
Sep 24, 2012 5:52 PM
QuakerOats;1279377 wrote:Maybe you need to reread what I posted. He has lost votes in every demographic (except perhaps illegals). He will obviously get majorities in some of the groups you mentioned, just not as many as last time, get it?

He will lose substantial votes from independants, Catholics, Jews, young people, (and even some blacks over his radical social policy positions).
Go to Vegas. You can make 30K by betting 10K on the Mittster.
Sep 24, 2012 5:52pm
F

Footwedge

Senior Member

9,265 posts
Sep 24, 2012 5:55 PM
Ty Webb;1279410 wrote:President Obama leads Romney:

70-24 among Jewish voters

61-31 among young voters

46-45 among non Hispanic Catholics;49-41 among all Catholics

95-4 among black voters

Tell me how that amounts to a Romney landslide
The only Romney landslide come November will be the rubble piled on top of the kool aid drinkers. Obama will announce a new pile of "shovel ready" jobs to unbury the dead. Hopefully, Quaker will remember to wear his hard hat.:laugh:
Sep 24, 2012 5:55pm
G

gut

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15,058 posts
Sep 24, 2012 7:31 PM
Footwedge;1279480 wrote:Obama will announce a new pile of "shovel ready" jobs to unbury the dead.
No, he'll just send in ACORN to register them.
Sep 24, 2012 7:31pm
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BGFalcons82

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2,173 posts
Sep 24, 2012 8:04 PM
Footwedge;1279480 wrote: Obama will announce a new pile of "shovel ready" jobs to unbury the dead. Hopefully, Quaker will remember to wear his hard hat.:laugh:
Fuck shovel ready jobs. Give them spoons, ala Milton Friedman's advice.
Sep 24, 2012 8:04pm
I

isadore

Senior Member

7,762 posts
Sep 24, 2012 9:34 PM
Gosh a ruddies Obama leads among indepenent. Despite the contraceptive controversy, he leads among Catholics. The President has 54% to 40% with military families. And 49% to 42% with NASCAR enthusiasts.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-romney-nascar-poll-140401668--politics.html
Sep 24, 2012 9:34pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Sep 24, 2012 10:05 PM
ccrunner609;1279550 wrote:Romney isnt winning the states he needs.......its not about the overall and the polls. Its about the states.
Wow....I agree with CC on a post!

Hell has frozen over!
Sep 24, 2012 10:05pm
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IggyPride00

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6,482 posts
Sep 25, 2012 12:14 PM
Among likely voters, Obama is ahead of Romney in Ohio by 52 to 44 percent. In Florida, the president is up 51 to 47 percent, a numerical but not statistically significant edge. Among all registered Florida voters, Obama is up nine percentage points.

The new numbers come one week after a Washington Post poll in Virginia showing Obama with a clear lead there. More than half of all money spent in the campaign has focused on these three states, and many analysts say Romney has to win two of the three to capture the White House. ...
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/post-poll-obama-up-in-ohio-in-florida-136590.html?hp=l1

Willard needs to get after it in Ohio as there is no path to the Presidency without it, and all of the polling of late shows BHO with at least a 4-5 pt. lead here. If BHO carries Ohio, it is going to be because of the Auto bailout, which ironically was started by President Bush.

Romney needs to start living here because everything else he is doing is a waste of time and money if he can't figure out how to win this state. I think he will win Florida, but Ohio seems to be drifting away.
Sep 25, 2012 12:14pm
Q

QuakerOats

Senior Member

8,740 posts
Sep 25, 2012 1:22 PM
No worries .... the Ohio poll oversampled dems by 6% points; it is a sham. There are 3 polls that have Romney very significantly ahead with independants, and without them obama cannot win. As we all know, obama has lost votes within every single demographic .......makes it hard to win.
Sep 25, 2012 1:22pm
B

Bigdogg

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1,429 posts
Sep 25, 2012 1:55 PM
Romney is demostrating by how he is running his campain what kind of job he would do in the white hous. He is not even smart enough to hire the right people.
Sep 25, 2012 1:55pm
G

gut

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15,058 posts
Sep 25, 2012 2:09 PM
QuakerOats;1280196 wrote:No worries .... the Ohio poll oversampled dems by 6% points; it is a sham. There are 3 polls that have Romney very significantly ahead with independants, and without them obama cannot win. As we all know, obama has lost votes within every single demographic .......makes it hard to win.
What's-his-baffoon was on the other day saying that a lot of these polls are calibrating to the 2008 results, and that's overstating Obama's likely margin because we won't see anywhere near that kind of turnout. Makes a lot of sense, and a "defensible" way to manipulate the projections.

At the end of the day, it's going to come down to the debates. And, actually, the economy does suck and I think Obama is going to have to convince people that 4 more years will be better - because the deciding votes WILL be a referendum on the economy.
Sep 25, 2012 2:09pm
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BGFalcons82

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2,173 posts
Sep 25, 2012 2:26 PM
isadore;1279608 wrote:Gosh a ruddies Obama leads among indepenent. Despite the contraceptive controversy, he leads among Catholics. The President has 54% to 40% with military families. And 49% to 42% with NASCAR enthusiasts.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-romney-nascar-poll-140401668--politics.html
You gotta be kidding us...right? Let's see....an online interactive poll to thousands of "invited adults", eh? How many thousand....5, 10, 900?
JZ Analytics conducted an online poll of 860 US Likely Voters in the United States
Using trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were invited to participate in this interactive
survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey
one time.
1. Sure would like to know how many declined this "poll". What a farce designed for a pre-determined result.
2. Have you ever read how NASCAR fans are described? Do they seem like the type of voter to even get invited, let alone go online, get passwords, go through the poll questions and then be "weighted" so as to be oversampled by traditional Dem voters? Are you serious?

3. Regarding military families, try this one on for size -
Instead, even as Obama has been gaining in the overall polls, several NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls conducted from Sept. 9-11 had Romney well ahead of Obama among veterans in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. And in Colorado, a poll released Sept. 16 by SurveyUSA and the Denver Post found both veterans and military families supporting Romney over Obama 53 percent to 39 percent in a survey that included third-party candidates.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81616.html#ixzz27VXIi5jI
Sep 25, 2012 2:26pm
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fish82

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4,111 posts
Sep 25, 2012 2:42 PM
isadore;1279608 wrote:Gosh a ruddies Obama leads among indepenent. Despite the contraceptive controversy, he leads among Catholics. The President has 54% to 40% with military families. And 49% to 42% with NASCAR enthusiasts.
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-romney-nascar-poll-140401668--politics.html
lolzogby
Sep 25, 2012 2:42pm
S

stlouiedipalma

Senior Member

1,797 posts
Sep 25, 2012 2:47 PM
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Nate breaks it down better than anyone out there, and his track record is pretty good as well.
Sep 25, 2012 2:47pm
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fish82

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4,111 posts
Sep 25, 2012 4:19 PM
stlouiedipalma;1280277 wrote:http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Nate breaks it down better than anyone out there, and his track record is pretty good as well.
I love Nate's layout and his analysis is always good. That said, he's still feeding the same skewed polling data into his model. Obie is winning, but it's way closer than Nate has it.
Sep 25, 2012 4:19pm
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mucalum49

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1,639 posts
Sep 25, 2012 10:46 PM
I haven't read into this site a lot but it's supposedly taking away the bias of the oversamples of Democrats to show what polls would be at an unskewed sample. Hence the creative site name. Take it for what it's worth.

http://unskewedpolls.com/
Sep 25, 2012 10:46pm
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Ty Webb

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2,798 posts
Sep 26, 2012 1:33 AM
mucalum49;1280504 wrote:I haven't read into this site a lot but it's supposedly taking away the bias of the oversamples of Democrats to show what polls would be at an unskewed sample. Hence the creative site name. Take it for what it's worth.

http://unskewedpolls.com/

So what you're telling me...is that you,Dick Morris,and the Republican Party believe that polls are so biased towards Democrats that they show a 7 point Obama lead while Romney is really up 11? To quote Keyshawn Johnson"COME ON MAN"

Scott Rasmussen has even said that site it full of shit
Sep 26, 2012 1:33am