robj55;1405059 wrote:Shields won two rounds against him standing and sent GSP to the Hospital, Penn arguably won the first fight but got killed in the second fight. I would give Nick a 20-25% chance of winning. I thought Condit had a decent shot to win if he has the aggressor, which he was not, he went backwards the entire fight. Nick is constant pressure, and I think that is the best way to beat GSP. Pressure him constantly on the feet and hit him, GSP doesn't like to be hit. GSP is going to take Nick down and Diaz is fine with that, he has the best guard of anyone GSP has fought and is very active. Maybe he can catch him off his back, maybe not, but he needs to make GSP work constantly. I just hope it's a great fight, I think if anyone can break GSP it's Nick, because I can promise you that Nick won't break physically or mentally, he will make it a fight the entire time he is in there. I don't see a GSP finish but the most likely is a grind out decision, hopefully Nick can change that.
I think being bigger, faster, and stronger will play a huge role too. I'm tired of GSP being the champ so i'm all for him losing, but I don't think a guy who can't stuff his take downs is going to be the one to do it. I honestly think Ellenberger and Hendricks have better chances because they hit hard and have good take down defense. Hendricks reminds me of Chuck, great power and great defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing.
Since it's in a few days what are everyones picks? I'm going GSP, Condit, and Marquardt. While I'd like all three of the other guys to win, I think this will be the result.