Ursuline's Playoff Chances

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oberhaus's avatar

oberhaus

Senior Member

868 posts
Sep 28, 2011 11:06 PM
I believe that NO team with a losing record has ever won 1 game in the playoffs let alone the Championship. BTW...worst record to make playoffs is 3-6 Walsh Jesuit
Sep 28, 2011 11:06pm
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Thinthickbigred

Senior Member

4,148 posts
Sep 29, 2011 3:00 AM
....... they could still get in ..
Sep 29, 2011 3:00am
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barbarian

Member

82 posts
Sep 29, 2011 7:03 AM
mvred;913386 wrote:Ursuline is off to a 1-4 start, much in part due to their brutal schedule and the loss of some very talented players. Unfortunately for my alma mater, things do not get any easier this week as they take on the best team in the state, Lakewood St. Edward's this weekend. The only thing we got going for us is the fact we led Mentor at one point in the 4th quarter and they are ranked #7 in Division 1.

Anyways things don't get much easier for the Irish a week later when they will play at West Point against St. Peter's Prep, although they are off to a 1-2 start. IF Ursuline were to lose those two games, I think most people on here would stick a fork in their playoff chances.... But I am here to tell you the Irish still have a chance, albeit it slight, to slip into the playoffs at 4-6.

Since I work with Excel everyday at work or in class, I decided to throw Ursuline's schedule into excel and compute their computer rankings IF, and only IF, they were to beat East Tech, Cardinal Mooney, and Akron SVSM. I then computed the wins I expect those three teams to have, plus the wins I expect Zanesville to have at the end of the season and I got the following number:

Level 1: 2.15
Level 2: 12.32
Total: 14.4732

That number, the past three seasons, would be enough for the 8th seed in the Division 5, Region 17 playoffs. So although the odds of all of this playing out to a tee are slim, just realize there is a legit shot the Irish will be in the playoff hunt if they can go 4-6 on the year.

Again this is just hypothetical, but to everyone out there saying Ursuline has no shot at the playoffs, you are wrong. 5-5 should almost definitely get them in and 4-6 can potentially get them in. Now the ball is in Ursuline's court... Let's go Irish!
LOL... lightweight. I do that with at least a dozen Reg 17 teams.
Sep 29, 2011 7:03am
mvred's avatar

mvred

Senior Member

228 posts
Sep 29, 2011 8:02 AM
barbarian;915513 wrote:LOL... lightweight. I do that with at least a dozen Reg 17 teams.
It took me ten minutes to throw together Ursuline, I can only imagine how long it would take for 20 teams. With midterms next week, I will pass :D!
Sep 29, 2011 8:02am
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ksig489

Senior Member

943 posts
Sep 29, 2011 8:30 AM
Ive broken down a whole region before...if you try to do it before week 7 you will be swimming and it is a crap shoot. It is best to wait until after week 7 is played and you can get a VERY good picture. The three times I have done it I was correct on our teams playoff chances or opponent each time. As long as you understand the numbers it really isnt all that hard to do.

Also...big time reps for Ursuline playing the schedule that they do. Is there a team in the country who has a tougher full season schedule?
Sep 29, 2011 8:30am
Ohio's avatar

Ohio

Senior Member

897 posts
Sep 29, 2011 1:21 PM
chili1212;914756 wrote:Drew Pasteur currently projects Ursuline to be out of the playoffs.....

http://www.fantastic50.net/index.php?pr=Ohio_Region_17
That has them not beating that team from new jersey also i think they slide in bareley if they beat that team.
Sep 29, 2011 1:21pm
Ohio's avatar

Ohio

Senior Member

897 posts
Sep 29, 2011 1:22 PM
ksig489;915565 wrote:Ive broken down a whole region before...if you try to do it before week 7 you will be swimming and it is a crap shoot. It is best to wait until after week 7 is played and you can get a VERY good picture. The three times I have done it I was correct on our teams playoff chances or opponent each time. As long as you understand the numbers it really isnt all that hard to do.

Also...big time reps for Ursuline playing the schedule that they do. Is there a team in the country who has a tougher full season schedule?
Ursuline i believe has the number 5 toughest schedule in the state and Mooney has the 3rd
Sep 29, 2011 1:22pm
4cards's avatar

4cards

Ohio Chatter Legend

2,551 posts
Sep 29, 2011 2:13 PM
ksig489;915565 wrote:Ive broken down a whole region before...if you try to do it before week 7 you will be swimming and it is a crap shoot. It is best to wait until after week 7 is played and you can get a VERY good picture. The three times I have done it I was correct on our teams playoff chances or opponent each time. As long as you understand the numbers it really isnt all that hard to do.
...Things are all mucked up now for the Irish. If what I heard is true, the game in NJ week 7 is cancelled. Given that situation U.H.S. can scramble and hope to pickup a game that week if anyone is open or is willing to schedule them or take it as a bye week which will hurt them quite a bit.

Remaining games would be
Wk 6 Lakewood St. Ed's
Wk 7 ??????
Wk 8 Cleveland East Tech
Wk 9 Mooney
Wk 10 Akron St. V's

Looking at the scheudle it's pretty obvious they will get few to any points out of week 6 & 7 since St Ed's is...well St. Eds and East Tech hasn't won a game yet. U.H.S. then must win out...IMO...to make the playoffs or will be sitting at home in the post season.
Sep 29, 2011 2:13pm
mvred's avatar

mvred

Senior Member

228 posts
Sep 29, 2011 4:27 PM
4cards;915953 wrote:...Things are all mucked up now for the Irish. If what I heard is true, the game in NJ week 7 is cancelled. Given that situation U.H.S. can scramble and hope to pickup a game that week if anyone is open or is willing to schedule them or take it as a bye week which will hurt them quite a bit.

Remaining games would be
Wk 6 Lakewood St. Ed's
Wk 7 ??????
Wk 8 Cleveland East Tech
Wk 9 Mooney
Wk 10 Akron St. V's

Looking at the scheudle it's pretty obvious they will get few to any points out of week 6 & 7 since St Ed's is...well St. Eds and East Tech hasn't won a game yet. U.H.S. then must win out...IMO...to make the playoffs or will be sitting at home in the post season.
Unless you find me a better source, this was from last week and the game with St. Peters Prep was NOT called off: http://www.northjersey.com/sports/130333093_Triple-header_site_still_up_in_the_air_.html

Again my predictions are based on Ursuline winning the last three games. I expect Zanesville to finish 8-2, SVSM to finish 8-2 (lose to Mooney), Mooney finish 6-3 and East Tech to win this week over the 0-5 team they are playing.

Bottom line: Ursuline still controls their own destiny, although it is a brutal destiny to control!!!

EDIT: I just read Yappi :/... Sounds like Columbus St. Francis MAY be interested as they have a BYE that week.
Sep 29, 2011 4:27pm
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barbarian

Member

82 posts
Oct 1, 2011 7:32 PM
mvred;915532 wrote:It took me ten minutes to throw together Ursuline, I can only imagine how long it would take for 20 teams. With midterms next week, I will pass :D!
You could have saved 10 minutes if you were only trying to figure out if Ursuline controls their own destiny. It doesn't take Excel to figure that out...just 30 seconds to look at their schedule
Oct 1, 2011 7:32pm
mvred's avatar

mvred

Senior Member

228 posts
Oct 1, 2011 8:10 PM
barbarian;918872 wrote:You could have saved 10 minutes if you were only trying to figure out if Ursuline controls their own destiny. It doesn't take Excel to figure that out...just 30 seconds to look at their schedule
They still control their own destiny, BUT if they lose next week (thinking we still win), we may not control our own destiny.
Oct 1, 2011 8:10pm
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holdingout

Senior Member

585 posts
Oct 2, 2011 9:57 AM
mvred;918922 wrote:They still control their own destiny, BUT if they lose next week (thinking we still win), we may not control our own destiny.
....basketball starts in 5 weeks...
Oct 2, 2011 9:57am
mvred's avatar

mvred

Senior Member

228 posts
Oct 2, 2011 11:48 AM
holdingout;919325 wrote:....basketball starts in 5 weeks...
Hearing big things about the basketball team this year. Strollo and company may make another run in the tourney.
Oct 2, 2011 11:48am
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ValleyMan

Junior Member

8 posts
Oct 3, 2011 2:05 PM
All I Know is NOBODY in D5 wants Ursuline in the playoffs. They can all say what they want, but put anyone in D5 or D4 for that matter, up against their schedule this year and they'd be no better and probably 0 & 7. Fact. If UHS beat St V and Mooney, they're in.
Oct 3, 2011 2:05pm
skank's avatar

skank

Senior Member

6,543 posts
Oct 3, 2011 6:02 PM
ValleyMan;920692 wrote:All I Know is NOBODY in D5 wants Ursuline in the playoffs. They can all say what they want, but put anyone in D5 or D4 for that matter, up against their schedule this year and they'd be no better and probably 0 & 7. Fact. If UHS beat St V and Mooney, they're in.


Not necessarily.
Oct 3, 2011 6:02pm
Ohio's avatar

Ohio

Senior Member

897 posts
Oct 3, 2011 7:38 PM
Ursuline has a very good chance beating St Peters this week.
Oct 3, 2011 7:38pm
mvred's avatar

mvred

Senior Member

228 posts
Oct 10, 2011 9:12 PM
Well Ursuline lost to St. Peters over the weekend 31-21. They led 21-17 late in the 3rd before giving up two 4th quarter touchdowns. However their playoff hopes are not lost, at least not yet. Here is the latest Excel run if they win out and Zanesville (wins out), Mooney (wins 2/3), and SVSM (wins 1/3). I do not give East Tech any shot whatsoever of winning another game:



Naturally Ursuline will be the underdogs in the last two, but knowing they are not mathematically out of the race should fuel them in each game. Side note, if the Ursuline divisor is actually 96, the number would go up to 15.0666. Per a yappi poster, Mooney = 9 games, Red Lion = 9 games, St. Pete = 8 games.

AGAIN, I am simply posting this to show the Irish are still not out of the playoff hunt.

Beat the Scarabs!
Oct 10, 2011 9:12pm
2

2002sunset

Senior Member

169 posts
Oct 11, 2011 12:03 PM
I hope they just focus on winning a game. Steubenville would appreciate some L2 points for a change.
Oct 11, 2011 12:03pm
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thavoice

Senior Member

14,376 posts
Oct 11, 2011 12:41 PM
This just leaves the door wide open for Lima Central Catholic.
Was at a fall basetball games saturday afternoon and there were some TBIrd fans sitting in front of us and all they could talk about was how if Ursuline doesnt make it that they should easily win DV
Oct 11, 2011 12:41pm
mvred's avatar

mvred

Senior Member

228 posts
Oct 12, 2011 8:13 PM
Congrats to the Ursuline freshmen team! They defeated Lakewood St. Eds 28-0 this evening down at Mill Creek Park!
Oct 12, 2011 8:13pm
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FairwoodKing

Senior Member

2,504 posts
Oct 13, 2011 2:40 AM
mvred;931723 wrote:Congrats to the Ursuline freshmen team! They defeated Lakewood St. Eds 28-0 this evening down at Mill Creek Park!
WOW! And the Steubenville frosh beat the Ursuline frosh 36-8. Looks like Big Red is going to be loaded in a few years.
Oct 13, 2011 2:40am
mvred's avatar

mvred

Senior Member

228 posts
Oct 13, 2011 7:58 AM
FairwoodKing;932094 wrote:WOW! And the Steubenville frosh beat the Ursuline frosh 36-8. Looks like Big Red is going to be loaded in a few years.
Whoever told you that was lying. They tied 18-18 in Death Valley.
Oct 13, 2011 7:58am
S

Summa

Member

30 posts
Oct 13, 2011 9:35 AM
Doesn't St. Ed have more than one freshman team?
Oct 13, 2011 9:35am
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Rocket08

Senior Member

645 posts
Oct 13, 2011 10:51 AM
Yes

Green and Gold
Oct 13, 2011 10:51am