bman618 wrote:
fan, the "true costs" theories are far from precise to pull down the best economy in the history of the world with taxes that will crush the middle and poor classes and invest into energy sources that would not exist without the strong hand of government subsidies like solar or wind.
They're not particularly precise, which is one of the major advantages of cap-and-trade, as it allows industry to calculate its own cost of abatement and react accordingly. The GHG emission costs being discussed aren't going to "pull down the best economy in the history of the world." They're fairly minimal, and most will be borne by shareholders. I'm not 100% sold on cap-and-trade, but I think it's important to combat the misinformation about it. My general thought is that we are going to see some sort of GHG emission regulation. Our options are either legislative or regulatory, and I think a legislative, market-driven solution is a million times preferable to the typical Clean Air Act top-down command-and-control. Either way, this is going to be regulated, and by fighting cap-and-trade, you're encouraging EPA action. That could be potentially disastrous.
Models have been wrong and numbers have been fudged by folks like Hanson. 40 years ago, most of science was trying to decide how to prevent what they were certain was an oncoming ice age. And at the end of the day, even if you take there numbers, we can only change the temperature by at most a few tenths of a degree.
I haven't yet heard anyone suggest that humans make more of a warming impact than nature, but that doesn't seem to be a reason not to do anything. Noting that one variable isn't the primary variable doesn't mean you should ignore it. For example, intelligence matters more than studying for SAT performance. But if someone is stupid, that doesn't mean they shouldn't study--on the contrary, because they can only control that variable, they should do everything they can to increase their chances there, even if the larger variables are out of there control.
Undoubtedly the vast majority of climate change is driven by natural cycles. I haven't heard anyone deny that. But it does appear likely that our actions play at least some role in what's going on. Inasmuch as we can minimize that impact (while balancing it out against affecting the economy today), I think it's irresponsible not to have the discussion and figure out if there's something we can do now not to screw over our kids' generation. Screwing the future to make the present easier is a baby-boomer sort of thing (thanks, mom and dad, for all the taxes and entitlement spending!)--I don't like it when previous generations have done it to us, and it's irresponsible for us to do it to the future.
There are real costs to abating GHG emissions. Aggressive mandates will likely slow GDP growth by ~1% a year, which results in real impacts to the quality of life and standard of living of billions around the world. I don't think we should kowtow to radical environmentalists and turn luddite on the world to reduce carbon--it's vitally important to consider how this will affect people around the globe, and to do it in a socially responsible way.
That said, I think the progress will be made when people drop the narrow-minded, simple, and off-repeated mantras and start addressing the complexities of the issue.