Bubble Watch

College Sports 46 replies 1,901 views
Mulva's avatar
Mulva
Posts: 13,650
Mar 11, 2011 11:29pm
Cleveland Buck;708642 wrote:Wins against Wisconsin twice, Michigan State, and Illinois aren't good enough, but Richmond and Georgia are in? I guess that means they have 4 better wins than that, right? Please show them to me.

No, it means they didn't lose 13 games (to this point), do nothing out of conference, and only finish .500 in conference. Penn State did all of those things, so I don't think 4 top-50 wins makes up for that. You have to look at the profile as a whole, something you apparently have a problem with.

Richmond has 7 more wins (and overall record DOES matter), went 13-3 in its conference, and beat Purdue and VCU out of conference, much better OOC wins than anything Penn State did.

Georgia has 0 bad losses, beat Colorado and UAB out of conference, 3 more total wins, and a better conference record.

They're all 11 seeds at best, but I think those 2 have better resumes overall than Penn State.
Azubuike24's avatar
Azubuike24
Posts: 15,933
Mar 11, 2011 11:31pm
If VT falters, I think there is room for all 3 right now. St. Mary's really trying to blow out Weber State (not like anyone is watching :)).
Cleveland Buck's avatar
Cleveland Buck
Posts: 5,126
Mar 11, 2011 11:31pm
The 5 teams from above that I would have in are Penn State, Georgia, Richmond, Alabama, and UAB.
D
dave
Posts: 4,558
Mar 11, 2011 11:32pm
Not a fan of the SEC, but Georgia should be in. They have some decent wins, and take a look at their losses. All to tourney teams in close games.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/GA
Cleveland Buck's avatar
Cleveland Buck
Posts: 5,126
Mar 11, 2011 11:39pm
Mulva;708674 wrote:No, it means they didn't lose 13 games (to this point), do nothing out of conference, and only finish .500 in conference. Penn State did all of those things, so I don't think 4 top-50 wins makes up for that. You have to look at the profile as a whole, something you apparently have a problem with.

Richmond has 7 more wins (and overall record DOES matter), went 13-3 in its conference, and beat Purdue and VCU out of conference, much better OOC wins than anything Penn State did.

Georgia has 0 bad losses, beat Colorado and UAB out of conference, 3 more total wins, and a better conference record.

They're all 11 seeds at best, but I think those 2 have better resumes overall than Penn State.

Yeah, Penn State is 9-1 against bad teams, so if they played as many bad teams as those teams did they would have more wins. That's what overall record means to me. There isn't much difference between 13 losses against the 8th toughest schedule, 11 losses against the 39th toughest schedule, and 7 losses against the 143rd toughest schedule. The difference is who have you beaten and how many bad teams did you lose to.
Azubuike24's avatar
Azubuike24
Posts: 15,933
Mar 11, 2011 11:41pm
Has anyone had it closer than Virginia Tech over the last 3 years? An empty possession here and they fall just shot YET AGAIN.
S
sportswizuhrd
Posts: 3,215
Mar 12, 2011 6:19am
Azubuike24;708694 wrote:Has anyone had it closer than Virginia Tech over the last 3 years? An empty possession here and they fall just shot YET AGAIN.

Did you change the channel before coverage was completely over? :)
S
sportswizuhrd
Posts: 3,215
Mar 12, 2011 6:23am
Two random blogs I came across this morning....

1) Combine the seed projections of the field from 85 other blogs/news sites.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm
1-OSU, Kansas, Pitt, ND
11-Georgia, Richmond, Michigan, Michigan St.
12-Colorado, St.Mary's, BC, Clemson, VT,UTEP(as the C-USA winner)

2-NIT-ology. Predicting the NIT field or as they say it...taking a look at the other[i/] side of the postseason bubble.
http://tcaa.puretecmo.com/nit06.html
Cleveland Buck's avatar
Cleveland Buck
Posts: 5,126
Mar 12, 2011 11:06am
Updating the bubble teams for 5 at large spots.

Boston College (1-5 T50, 7-11 T100, 38 SOS, 1 bad loss)

Virginia Tech (2-4 T50, 8-7 T100, 90 SOS, 3 bad losses)

Penn State (5-9 T50, 10-12 T100, 5 SOS, 1 bad loss)

UTEP (2-2 T50, 6-6 T100, 104 SOS, 2 bad losses)

UAB (1-4 T50, 10-7 T100, 79 SOS, 1 bad loss)

St. Mary’s (1-4 T50, 3-6 T100, 99 SOS, 2 bad losses)

Missouri State (0-1 T50, 3-6 T100, 125 SOS, 2 bad
losses)

Georgia (3-9 T50, 5-11 T100, 40 SOS, 0 bad losses)

Alabama (4-3 T50, 5-6 T100, 127 SOS, 4 bad losses)

USC (5-5 T50, 8-8 T100, 39 SOS, 6 bad losses)

Richmond (1-3 T50, 4-6 T100, 141 SOS, 1 bad loss)\

New Mexico (4-6 T50, 5-8 T100, 77 SOS, 4 bad losses)
Mulva's avatar
Mulva
Posts: 13,650
Mar 12, 2011 2:12pm
Bracketography:
Last 4 in - USC, Va Tech, BC, Penn State
First 4 out - Georgia, Clemson, ST. Mary's, UAB

B101:
Last 4 in - Colorado, St. Mary's, Georgia, Clemson
First 4 out - Penn State, UAB, USC, BC

ESPN:
Last 4 in - Va Tech, Colorado, USC, Penn State
First 4 out - Alabama, BC, Georgia, Memphis

Memphis is irrelevant because they won CUSA.

Judging by that, I would say the teams in contention for the last 6 spots from most to least safe would be...

1. Colorado (all have them in)
2. Va Tech (all have them in)

3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. St. Mary's (2 of 3 have all of these teams in with 1 not even having them in the last 4 in)

6. Penn State
7. USC (2 of 3 have them in)

8. Georgia
9. BC (2 of 3 have them out)

Of course, the teams that are still playing (Clemson, Penn State, Va Tech), can still make statements and continue to shake this up. Clemson would obviously be a stone cold lock if they hold on to beat UNC.

Looks like Richmond is probably safely in, New Mexico and Missouri State aren't even in consideration, and UAB is a deep, deep long shot.
Cleveland Buck's avatar
Cleveland Buck
Posts: 5,126
Mar 12, 2011 2:36pm
I already had Colorado and Clemson in my lock list. My last 5 in at this point would be Penn State, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Richmond, and Alabama. First four out would be UAB, Boston College, St. Mary's, and New Mexico.
Azubuike24's avatar
Azubuike24
Posts: 15,933
Mar 12, 2011 5:26pm
Richmond about to beat Temple. Win or lose tomorrow, that would take them off the bubble. Folks would have to root against Dayton as a win by them would mean 4 bids for the A-10...
Cleveland Buck's avatar
Cleveland Buck
Posts: 5,126
Mar 12, 2011 6:12pm
Richmond is in now and I don't see how they can keep Penn State out. I'll wait to see what the consensus is before I move those two to the lock list though.
september63's avatar
september63
Posts: 5,789
Mar 12, 2011 6:19pm
Id lock Penn St in now. Richmond locked themselves in already. What do you mean wait to move them to your lock list?

NM, you meant someone else.
Azubuike24's avatar
Azubuike24
Posts: 15,933
Mar 12, 2011 9:52pm
In The Field (65)

Florida
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke
Clemson
Florida State
Virginia Tech
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Michigan State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Connecticut
Georgetown
Villanova
Louisville
Notre Dame
Cincinnati
West Virginia
St. John's
Marquette
Kansas
Texas
Texas A&M
Kansas State
Missouri
Colorado
Indiana State
San Diego State
Brigham Young
UNLV
Utah State***
Richmond
Xavier
Temple
Memphis
Butler
Old Dominion
George Mason
Gonzaga
Akron
UC Santa Barbara
Bucknell
Princeton
Wofford
Boston
Arkansas Little Rock
Oakland
St. Peter's
Northern Colorado
Texas San Antonio
Morehead State
Belmont
Long Island
UNC Ashville
Hampton
Alabama State

Remaining 2 Spots

Alabama
Georgia
Boston College
USC
Missouri State
UTEP
UAB
St. Mary's
Harvard

What If's

Boise State beats Utah State tonight, WAC gets 2 bids
Dayton beats Richmond tomorrow, A-10 gets 4 bids

It's slim chances for the remaining bubble teams.
I
ironman02
Posts: 4,989
Mar 12, 2011 11:29pm
Boise was hanging around against Utah State at the half, but the Aggies have started to pull away a little. Definitely a good thing for the bubble teams.
I
ironman02
Posts: 4,989
Mar 12, 2011 11:41pm
And now Boise is making things interesting again. I knew as soon as I typed that, they would start a comeback.
Tiger2003's avatar
Tiger2003
Posts: 15,421
Mar 13, 2011 12:05am
Joe still has Bama and Georgia on the outside looking in.

Boise down 3 with 3 minutes left.
I
ironman02
Posts: 4,989
Mar 13, 2011 12:15am
It looks like Utah State will hold on and save a spot for one of the teams currently sitting on the bubble.
Tiger2003's avatar
Tiger2003
Posts: 15,421
Mar 13, 2011 12:23am
ironman02;709671 wrote:North Dakota beat South Dakota, 77-76 in 2 OTs to punch its ticket to the dance.

I wish. The GWC does not get an automatic but what a crazy ending. The Sioux were down 76-72 with 14 seconds left and pulled out the win 77-76.

Go Sioux!
I
ironman02
Posts: 4,989
Mar 13, 2011 12:25am
You must have quoted me right as I edited. haha
Tiger2003's avatar
Tiger2003
Posts: 15,421
Mar 13, 2011 12:31am
ironman02;709680 wrote:You must have quoted me right as I edited. haha

But hey we do have the Nations #1 College Hockey team in the country!!!