College Recruiting: How Recruiting Classes Relate to Wins.

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OneBuckeye

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Jan 25, 2011 1:42 PM
http://virginiatech.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1179868
There are 29 schools to have its recruiting classes ranked inside the Top 50 each year since 2002. Here's a breakdown by team of the differential between the average Rivals.com team rank and the winning percentage those teams have produced.
Team Avg. Class (rank) Win percent (rank) +/-
Virginia Tech 28.0 (t21) .752 (6) +15
Missouri 32.3 (27) .634 (14) +13
Ohio State 14.0 (12) .853 (1) +11
Oregon 26.5 (20) .684 (10) +10
Pittsburgh 34.8 (29) .607 (19) +10
Oklahoma State 29.3 (t25) .622 (17) +8
Maryland 29.3 (t25) .575 (20) +5
Texas 8.6 (6) .818 (3) +3
Alabama 15.6 (13) .675 (11) +2
Nebraska 25.2 (18) .623 (16) +2
Oklahoma 7.8 (5) .803 (4) +1
Auburn 12.3 (10) .741 (9) +1
Arkansas 28.7 (23) .548 (22) +1
Arizona State 29.1 (24) .544 (23) +1
USC 3.7 (1) .846 (2) -1
LSU 7.7 (4) .779 (5) -1
Arizona 34.0 (28) .394 (29) -1
Georgia 7.3 (3) .745 (t7) -4
Miami 10.3 (8) .667 (12) -4
Florida 7.0 (2) .745 (t7) -5
Florida State 8.8 (7) .644 (13) -6
Michigan 11.8 (9) .628 (15) -6
North Carolina 28.0 (t21) .427 (28) -7
Tennessee 12.7 (11) .608 (18) -7
Notre Dame 17.8 (14) .571 (21) -7
UCLA 21.8 (17) .513 (t25) -8
Mississippi 26.4 (19) .481 (27) -8
South Carolina 18.3 (15) .535 (24) -9
Texas A&M 19.7 (16) .513 (t25) -9
Jan 25, 2011 1:42pm
krambman's avatar

krambman

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Jan 25, 2011 2:07 PM
Well, it looks like those who say that doesn't doesn't get as much respect as a coach (he's never been named Big Ten Coach of the Year) because he has superior talent can just shut their mouths now. Consistently performs better than his recruiting class rank would predict.
Jan 25, 2011 2:07pm
OneBuckeye's avatar

OneBuckeye

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Jan 25, 2011 2:09 PM
I think this table shows rivals bias against midwest players as well. I would be curious as to what scouts table would look like.
Jan 25, 2011 2:09pm
krambman's avatar

krambman

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Jan 25, 2011 2:12 PM
I just looked at the numbers a little closer and some of the numbers are misleading. Since they are ranked by their +/- between average recruiting rank and win percentage. USC is ranked in the middle with a -1, however they were ranked #1 in recruiting average and #2 in win percentage. Since they were #1 in recruiting, they could almost only end up with a negative, even though they have performed extremely well.
Jan 25, 2011 2:12pm
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ytownfootball

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Jan 25, 2011 2:19 PM
The USC thing did stand out to me as well, I'm not sure how these numbers could really show any kind of value. Also, despite SEC oversigning they're all relatively low, despite a tougher conference slate. Need to have SOS factored in somehow imo.
Jan 25, 2011 2:19pm
OneBuckeye's avatar

OneBuckeye

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Jan 25, 2011 2:23 PM
I think it would just need normalized somehow.
Jan 25, 2011 2:23pm
krambman's avatar

krambman

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Jan 25, 2011 2:31 PM
OneBuckeye;652339 wrote:I think it would just need normalized somehow.

Exactly. Also, this is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. I'm not sure what the other pieces are or what the final picture is supposed to be, but I do know that this is just on piece.
Jan 25, 2011 2:31pm
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sleeper

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Jan 25, 2011 2:59 PM
ytownfootball;652335 wrote:The USC thing did stand out to me as well, I'm not sure how these numbers could really show any kind of value. Also, despite SEC oversigning they're all relatively low, despite a tougher conference slate. Need to have SOS factored in somehow imo.

The SEC plays no one out of conference and has 7-8 teams that are pure garbage year in year out. Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Miss St, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and normally Arkansas/Auburn.

The tougher conference slate is a myth, and anyone who believes its better is delusional.
Jan 25, 2011 2:59pm
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FatHobbit

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Jan 25, 2011 3:53 PM
This could just show that recruiting rankings are over rated. But it is a joke that Tressel has never won the big ten coach of the year.
Jan 25, 2011 3:53pm
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karen lotz

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Jan 25, 2011 4:01 PM
FatHobbit;652574 wrote:This could just show that recruiting rankings are over rated. But it is a joke that Tressel has never won the big ten coach of the year.


I agree he should have won the award at least one time, but this doesn't prove that. Ohio State and Michigan are the only Big Ten teams on that list. He still has had the most talented teams in the Big Ten over that time period, so he is expected to be at the top of the Big Ten standings year in and year out.

Every other school on that list (outside of Independent Notre Dame and Big East's Pittsburgh) faces much more talent in their conference games that OSU and Michigan do.
Jan 25, 2011 4:01pm
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se-alum

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Jan 25, 2011 6:15 PM
karen lotz;652589 wrote:I agree he should have won the award at least one time, but this doesn't prove that. Ohio State and Michigan are the only Big Ten teams on that list. He still has had the most talented teams in the Big Ten over that time period, so he is expected to be at the top of the Big Ten standings year in and year out.

Every other school on that list (outside of Independent Notre Dame and Big East's Pittsburgh) faces much more talent in their conference games that OSU and Michigan do.
The ACC is not better than the Big Ten.
Jan 25, 2011 6:15pm
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karen lotz

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Jan 25, 2011 6:21 PM
se-alum;652838 wrote:The ACC is not better than the Big Ten.
That's not what I said. Look how many ACC teams are listed. On paper, there is a larger talent gap between OSU/Michigan and the rest of the Big Ten than there is at the top schools in the ACC. My only point was that this comparison of classes to win % does not prove that Tressel should have won a BT coach of the year award.
Jan 25, 2011 6:21pm
karen lotz's avatar

karen lotz

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Jan 25, 2011 6:31 PM
ACC: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Florida State, North Carolina
Big XII: Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan
PAC 10: Oregon, Arizona State, USC, Arizona, UCLA
SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi, South Carolina


ON PAPER wouldn't it make sense that it is "easier" to win the Big Ten, especially when you have the most talent in the conference? That is part of the reason Tressel hasn't won BT COY. I said it in this thread and I have said it in the past that Tressel is the best coach in the Big Ten, I was responding to FatHobbit's comment about Tressel not winning COY, that's it.
Jan 25, 2011 6:31pm
C

cats gone wild

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Jan 25, 2011 6:54 PM
ytownfootball;652335 wrote: Need to have SOS factored in somehow imo.
karen lotz;652589 wrote:
Every other school on that list (outside of Independent Notre Dame and Big East's Pittsburgh) faces much more talent in their conference games that OSU and Michigan do.
karen lotz;652860 wrote:ACC: Virginia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Florida State, North Carolina
Big XII: Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Big Ten: Ohio State, Michigan
PAC 10: Oregon, Arizona State, USC, Arizona, UCLA
SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi, South Carolina


ON PAPER wouldn't it make sense that it is "easier" to win the Big Ten, especially when you have the most talent in the conference? That is part of the reason Tressel hasn't won BT COY.
...
Jan 25, 2011 6:54pm
Tobias Fünke's avatar

Tobias Fünke

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Jan 25, 2011 6:55 PM
Karen beat me to it. Ohio State's great winning percentage is to a small degree because the rest of the conference has been down for a decade. When Michigan is the only other school on the list you don't really have an argument that you do more with less because the schedule is against the Big Ten.

sleeper you're an idiot. No one plays a tough OOC schedule these days, not even teams from the Big Ten. Besides, it's just 1/3 of your schedule. Pretty fucking dumb to harp on that.
Jan 25, 2011 6:55pm
sleeper's avatar

sleeper

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Jan 25, 2011 11:52 PM
Tobias Fünke;652897 wrote:Karen beat me to it. Ohio State's great winning percentage is to a small degree because the rest of the conference has been down for a decade. When Michigan is the only other school on the list you don't really have an argument that you do more with less because the schedule is against the Big Ten.

sleeper you're an idiot. No one plays a tough OOC schedule these days, not even teams from the Big Ten. Besides, it's just 1/3 of your schedule. Pretty fucking dumb to harp on that.
I was more dogging the 7-8 teams in the conference that are terrible. Sorry if I'm not impressed with beating Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Miss St, Georgia, and South Carolina's of the world.
Jan 25, 2011 11:52pm
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ohiotiger33

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Jan 28, 2011 10:11 AM
The ACC puts more players into the NFL than most BCS conferences but can't do shit with them in college. I smell coaching... coming from experience over at Clemson. Though we aren't on this list, so it is one thing we haven't underachieved in lol. I mean to say that we didn't recruit amazingly every year since 2002 and still suck as badly as we do.
Jan 28, 2011 10:11am
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Scarlet_Buckeye

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Jan 28, 2011 4:19 PM
OneBuckeye;652323 wrote:I think this table shows rivals bias against midwest players as well. I would be curious as to what scouts table would look like.

Bingo. That was my first thought as well.
Jan 28, 2011 4:19pm