HUUUUUUUGE Series this weekend. Taking 2 out of 3 in this series and in my opinion the Division is pretty much all but over come Sunday. Because having a 9 game lead with 26 games left and only playing 7 games vs. teams with a winning record and the way we've dominated the lower teams this year I don't see how we'd lose the division.

Starting pitchers for game 1 on Friday:

Jaime Garcia ( 12 - 6 ) 2.33 ERA Vs. Bronson Arroyo ( 14 - 8 ) 3.82 ERA

I think having Bronson going game 1 and getting a victory would set the tone for the series.... GO REDS!

2 of 3 would be great but I almost think 1 of 3 would still give us a comfortable enough lead with 26 games left. I do believe if we are going to be considered a contender we need to take 2 of 3 at least.

Be nice to wax the Cards this series and drive the nail into the coffin.

A sweep would almost lock up the division. Winning 2 of 3 would put some major pressure on the Cards. Winning 1 of 3 is really all the Reds need but more would be nice. Getting swept would suck royally but we'd still maintain a 5 game lead with ~27 games to go.

My opinion on a 0 to 10 "goodness" scale:

W-L "goodness" games ahead
0-3 .......... 0 ................. 5
1-2 .......... 6 ................. 7
2-1 .......... 9 ................. 9
3-0 ......... 10 ............... 11

"goodness" being the amount of help to the reds chances of winning the NL central


Now if it is "goodness" as in helping to win the best NL record:

W-L "goodness" games ahead
0-3 .......... 0 ................. 5
1-2 .......... 2 ................. 7
2-1 .......... 7 ................. 9
3-0 ......... 10 ............... 11

mhs95_06;469742 wrote:My opinion on a 0 to 10 "goodness" scale:

W-L "goodness" games ahead
0-3 .......... 0 ................. 5
1-2 .......... 6 ................. 7
2-1 .......... 9 ................. 9
3-0 ......... 10 ............... 11

"goodness" being the amount of help to the reds chances of winning the NL central


Now if it is "goodness" as in helping to win the best NL record:

W-L "goodness" games ahead
0-3 .......... 0 ................. 5
1-2 .......... 2 ................. 7
2-1 .......... 7 ................. 9
3-0 ......... 10 ............... 11

I agree with this assessment.

"goodness" is this one of those new sabrmetrics things?

"Goodness" is just a term someone used in a tool I was exposed to ~25 years ago at work for trying to understand how satisfied customers were with our products they bought. Looking at cost, delivery, different quality parameters, etc., and trying to rank each one in relative importance and degree of perfection for them, and then having a rationale to calculate a "goodness" factor to help both the customer and supplier better understand the satisfaction level. I'm sure some effort at something like this has been done with baseball stats. I've often thought of trying to rank batters for the season. Like rank each AB as to it's importance to the outcome of the game(such as bases loaded, two, outs, in the 6th inning, your team down 3), rank each game as to it's criticalness(158th game of the year, your team 1 game out of first place), and result of the plate appearance(base on balls), then come up with an overall goodness factor to combine with all the other ABs of the season. And probably max potential "goodness" would probably be higher for a player who usually batted 3rd for a team that finished two games out than a player who usually batted 7th for the 4th place team.

So if a guy is leading off the bottom of the 9th in the 162nd game in which they are a game out of first, and they are playing the first place team, and they are down 4-2, it might look something like this:

game importance = 1.00
AB importance = 0.95 (2 out bases loaded, 4-2, bottom 9th, would be 1.00)
AB result = walk would be 1.00(rally killing HR would be 0.99)

94.3% of all stats are made up

Need to win 1 game this series and avoid any possible retailiations and must not retaliate and miss games

Regardless of games 1 and 2.....I say Sunday the Cards go for one of the Reds players....in payback for LaRue

Win 1 game this series and I am content with everything. Win 2 and I am going to send hate mail to Cardinals players asking how Joey Votto's dick tastes.

Wood vs. Wainwright on Saturday
Bailey vs. Carpenter on Sunday

If the Reds can win two of three, the division is over (if it isn't already).

I don't think we have much of a shot going for us tomorrow night. With the Cardinals due and the Reds on such a streak I think a St. Louis win is probably going to happen. Will all go back to that 'have been there before' mentality that haunted us the last series with them.

Garcia only has 3 starts in his career against the Reds with a 3-0 record, but his ERA is 4.87 so they have scored runs against him. They put 4 on the board in only 5.1 innings the last time. He also hasn't given up an earned run his last 3 starts so he's due to get beat around sometime soon. If Arroyo does his thing and gets them to the 8th with only giving up 3 or 4 runs the Reds will win.

Reds need to get 2 of 3

darbypitcher22;470374 wrote:Reds need to get 2 of 3

They only NEED to win 1. Winning just 1 keeps the lead at 7 games. A 9 game lead would be great, no doubt, but as long as they don't let the lead slip to 5 it'll be fine.

darbypitcher22;470374 wrote:Reds need to get 2 of 3

lol no they don't

The Reds activated Orlando Cabrera today from the disabled list and recalled LHP Matt Maloney and RHP Jordan Smith from Triple-A Louisville.

justincredible;470401 wrote:They only NEED to win 1. Winning just 1 keeps the lead at 7 games. A 9 game lead would be great, no doubt, but as long as they don't let the lead slip to 5 it'll be fine.

Completely agree.

A 5 game lead is a lot different than a 7 game lead. My friend and I were talking about how if the Cardinals were to sweep this weekend, yeah the Reds have a 5 game lead but what if they start doubting themselves, then a 5 game lead becomes a 3 game lead becomes a 1 game lead.


I'm hoping the Reds take at least 1, hopefully 2. I'd rather have the Reds win the division than me being right about the Cardinals winning now that the Reds are starting to run away with it.

Reds Lineup:

Stubbs 8
Phillips 4
Votto 3
Rolen 5
Gomes 7
Hanigan 2
Heisey 9
Janish 6
Arroyo 1

osu45804;470734 wrote:Reds Lineup:

Stubbs 8
Phillips 4
Votto 3
Rolen 5
Gomes 7
Hanigan 2
Heisey 9
Janish 6
Arroyo 1

I hope Bruce's injury isn't too serious. I am starting to get a little worried.

On a brighter note, it's good to have Phillips back in a bigger capacity than pinch runner.

id be happy with 1 win this series, expecting a sweep

I'll take 1 win in this series. Anything more than that is gravy

Phillips receives a hand full of sarcastic cheers LMAO .....

First two batters reach against Bronson, the 2nd being Jay's triple for an RBI, and he scored on the Pujols SF, and the Reds spot the Cards a 2-0 lead. When the Reds were swept by the Cards last month, I don't think they ever had a lead in any game, and it may be starting that that this time.