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Reds Vs Cardinals: Game 1

Home ▸ Archive ▸ Pro Sports ▸ Reds Vs Cardinals: Game 1
osu45804's avatar

osu45804

Senior Member

6,188 posts
Sep 2, 2010 2:32 PM
HUUUUUUUGE Series this weekend. Taking 2 out of 3 in this series and in my opinion the Division is pretty much all but over come Sunday. Because having a 9 game lead with 26 games left and only playing 7 games vs. teams with a winning record and the way we've dominated the lower teams this year I don't see how we'd lose the division.

Starting pitchers for game 1 on Friday:

Jaime Garcia ( 12 - 6 ) 2.33 ERA Vs. Bronson Arroyo ( 14 - 8 ) 3.82 ERA

I think having Bronson going game 1 and getting a victory would set the tone for the series.... GO REDS!
Sep 2, 2010 2:32pm
N

norwalk

Senior Member

158 posts
Sep 2, 2010 2:50 PM
2 of 3 would be great but I almost think 1 of 3 would still give us a comfortable enough lead with 26 games left. I do believe if we are going to be considered a contender we need to take 2 of 3 at least.
Sep 2, 2010 2:50pm
gerb131's avatar

gerb131

Senior Member

9,932 posts
Sep 2, 2010 3:17 PM
Be nice to wax the Cards this series and drive the nail into the coffin.
Sep 2, 2010 3:17pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Sep 2, 2010 3:24 PM
A sweep would almost lock up the division. Winning 2 of 3 would put some major pressure on the Cards. Winning 1 of 3 is really all the Reds need but more would be nice. Getting swept would suck royally but we'd still maintain a 5 game lead with ~27 games to go.
Sep 2, 2010 3:24pm
M

mhs95_06

Senior Member

8,167 posts
Sep 2, 2010 4:59 PM
My opinion on a 0 to 10 "goodness" scale:

W-L "goodness" games ahead
0-3 .......... 0 ................. 5
1-2 .......... 6 ................. 7
2-1 .......... 9 ................. 9
3-0 ......... 10 ............... 11

"goodness" being the amount of help to the reds chances of winning the NL central


Now if it is "goodness" as in helping to win the best NL record:

W-L "goodness" games ahead
0-3 .......... 0 ................. 5
1-2 .......... 2 ................. 7
2-1 .......... 7 ................. 9
3-0 ......... 10 ............... 11
Sep 2, 2010 4:59pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Sep 2, 2010 5:02 PM
mhs95_06;469742 wrote:My opinion on a 0 to 10 "goodness" scale:

W-L "goodness" games ahead
0-3 .......... 0 ................. 5
1-2 .......... 6 ................. 7
2-1 .......... 9 ................. 9
3-0 ......... 10 ............... 11

"goodness" being the amount of help to the reds chances of winning the NL central


Now if it is "goodness" as in helping to win the best NL record:

W-L "goodness" games ahead
0-3 .......... 0 ................. 5
1-2 .......... 2 ................. 7
2-1 .......... 7 ................. 9
3-0 ......... 10 ............... 11

I agree with this assessment.
Sep 2, 2010 5:02pm
Mooney44Cards's avatar

Mooney44Cards

Senior Member

2,754 posts
Sep 2, 2010 9:45 PM
"goodness" is this one of those new sabrmetrics things?
Sep 2, 2010 9:45pm
M

mhs95_06

Senior Member

8,167 posts
Sep 2, 2010 10:28 PM
"Goodness" is just a term someone used in a tool I was exposed to ~25 years ago at work for trying to understand how satisfied customers were with our products they bought. Looking at cost, delivery, different quality parameters, etc., and trying to rank each one in relative importance and degree of perfection for them, and then having a rationale to calculate a "goodness" factor to help both the customer and supplier better understand the satisfaction level. I'm sure some effort at something like this has been done with baseball stats. I've often thought of trying to rank batters for the season. Like rank each AB as to it's importance to the outcome of the game(such as bases loaded, two, outs, in the 6th inning, your team down 3), rank each game as to it's criticalness(158th game of the year, your team 1 game out of first place), and result of the plate appearance(base on balls), then come up with an overall goodness factor to combine with all the other ABs of the season. And probably max potential "goodness" would probably be higher for a player who usually batted 3rd for a team that finished two games out than a player who usually batted 7th for the 4th place team.

So if a guy is leading off the bottom of the 9th in the 162nd game in which they are a game out of first, and they are playing the first place team, and they are down 4-2, it might look something like this:

game importance = 1.00
AB importance = 0.95 (2 out bases loaded, 4-2, bottom 9th, would be 1.00)
AB result = walk would be 1.00(rally killing HR would be 0.99)
Sep 2, 2010 10:28pm
Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

Administrator

49,363 posts
Sep 2, 2010 10:47 PM
94.3% of all stats are made up
Sep 2, 2010 10:47pm
Ironman92's avatar

Ironman92

Administrator

49,363 posts
Sep 2, 2010 10:49 PM
Need to win 1 game this series and avoid any possible retailiations and must not retaliate and miss games

Regardless of games 1 and 2.....I say Sunday the Cards go for one of the Reds players....in payback for LaRue
Sep 2, 2010 10:49pm
CinciX12's avatar

CinciX12

Senior Member

2,874 posts
Sep 2, 2010 11:40 PM
Win 1 game this series and I am content with everything. Win 2 and I am going to send hate mail to Cardinals players asking how Joey Votto's dick tastes.
Sep 2, 2010 11:40pm
Leonardo's avatar

Leonardo

Senior Member

4,986 posts
Sep 2, 2010 11:48 PM
Wood vs. Wainwright on Saturday
Bailey vs. Carpenter on Sunday

If the Reds can win two of three, the division is over (if it isn't already).
Sep 2, 2010 11:48pm
CinciX12's avatar

CinciX12

Senior Member

2,874 posts
Sep 2, 2010 11:50 PM
I don't think we have much of a shot going for us tomorrow night. With the Cardinals due and the Reds on such a streak I think a St. Louis win is probably going to happen. Will all go back to that 'have been there before' mentality that haunted us the last series with them.
Sep 2, 2010 11:50pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Sep 3, 2010 10:11 AM
Garcia only has 3 starts in his career against the Reds with a 3-0 record, but his ERA is 4.87 so they have scored runs against him. They put 4 on the board in only 5.1 innings the last time. He also hasn't given up an earned run his last 3 starts so he's due to get beat around sometime soon. If Arroyo does his thing and gets them to the 8th with only giving up 3 or 4 runs the Reds will win.
Sep 3, 2010 10:11am
darbypitcher22's avatar

darbypitcher22

Senior Member

8,000 posts
Sep 3, 2010 11:01 AM
Reds need to get 2 of 3
Sep 3, 2010 11:01am
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Sep 3, 2010 11:15 AM
darbypitcher22;470374 wrote:Reds need to get 2 of 3

They only NEED to win 1. Winning just 1 keeps the lead at 7 games. A 9 game lead would be great, no doubt, but as long as they don't let the lead slip to 5 it'll be fine.
Sep 3, 2010 11:15am
SportsAndLady's avatar

SportsAndLady

Senior Member

35,632 posts
Sep 3, 2010 12:27 PM
darbypitcher22;470374 wrote:Reds need to get 2 of 3

lol no they don't
Sep 3, 2010 12:27pm
osu45804's avatar

osu45804

Senior Member

6,188 posts
Sep 3, 2010 2:25 PM
The Reds activated Orlando Cabrera today from the disabled list and recalled LHP Matt Maloney and RHP Jordan Smith from Triple-A Louisville.
Sep 3, 2010 2:25pm
lhslep134's avatar

lhslep134

why so serious?

9,774 posts
Sep 3, 2010 2:36 PM
justincredible;470401 wrote:They only NEED to win 1. Winning just 1 keeps the lead at 7 games. A 9 game lead would be great, no doubt, but as long as they don't let the lead slip to 5 it'll be fine.

Completely agree.

A 5 game lead is a lot different than a 7 game lead. My friend and I were talking about how if the Cardinals were to sweep this weekend, yeah the Reds have a 5 game lead but what if they start doubting themselves, then a 5 game lead becomes a 3 game lead becomes a 1 game lead.


I'm hoping the Reds take at least 1, hopefully 2. I'd rather have the Reds win the division than me being right about the Cardinals winning now that the Reds are starting to run away with it.
Sep 3, 2010 2:36pm
osu45804's avatar

osu45804

Senior Member

6,188 posts
Sep 3, 2010 3:04 PM
Reds Lineup:

Stubbs 8
Phillips 4
Votto 3
Rolen 5
Gomes 7
Hanigan 2
Heisey 9
Janish 6
Arroyo 1
Sep 3, 2010 3:04pm
justincredible's avatar

justincredible

Nick Mangold

32,056 posts
Sep 3, 2010 3:33 PM
osu45804;470734 wrote:Reds Lineup:

Stubbs 8
Phillips 4
Votto 3
Rolen 5
Gomes 7
Hanigan 2
Heisey 9
Janish 6
Arroyo 1

I hope Bruce's injury isn't too serious. I am starting to get a little worried.

On a brighter note, it's good to have Phillips back in a bigger capacity than pinch runner.
Sep 3, 2010 3:33pm
D

dave

Senior Member

4,558 posts
Sep 3, 2010 3:34 PM
id be happy with 1 win this series, expecting a sweep
Sep 3, 2010 3:34pm
jordo212000's avatar

jordo212000

Senior Member

10,664 posts
Sep 3, 2010 4:41 PM
I'll take 1 win in this series. Anything more than that is gravy
Sep 3, 2010 4:41pm
osu45804's avatar

osu45804

Senior Member

6,188 posts
Sep 3, 2010 8:23 PM
Phillips receives a hand full of sarcastic cheers LMAO .....
Sep 3, 2010 8:23pm
M

mhs95_06

Senior Member

8,167 posts
Sep 3, 2010 8:37 PM
First two batters reach against Bronson, the 2nd being Jay's triple for an RBI, and he scored on the Pujols SF, and the Reds spot the Cards a 2-0 lead. When the Reds were swept by the Cards last month, I don't think they ever had a lead in any game, and it may be starting that that this time.
Sep 3, 2010 8:37pm