justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 2:24pm
For those of you who don't read redszone.com I thought I would pass this on...
Link: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=85322
Link: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=85322
Some quick and dirty math to show what the Reds need to do the rest of the way to seal the division:
Reds : 77-55 after 132 games. 30 games remain.
Cards: 69-61 after 130 games. 32 games remain.
Reds lead by 7 games.
If Reds go 5-25(.167), and finish 82-80, Cards must go 14-18(.438).
If Reds go 8-22(.267), and finish 85-77, Cards must go 17-15(.531).
If Reds go 12-18(.400), and finish 89-73, Cards must go 21-11(.656).
If Reds go 15-15(.500), and finish 92-70, Cards must go 24-8(.750).
If Reds go 17-13(.567), and finish 94-68, Cards must go 26-6(.813).
If Reds go 20-10(.667), and finish 97-65, Cards must go 28-4(.875).
So obviously, if the Reds can play near .500 or better, that makes it a nearly insurmountable hill for the Cardinals to climb.
justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 2:24pm
Essentially, if the Reds play .500 ball the rest of the season it's almost impossible for the Cardinals to catch them.
wildcats20
Posts: 27,794
Sep 1, 2010 2:25pm
Before I read that last line, I was thinking all the Reds have to do is play .500 ball and it's locked up.
karen lotz
Posts: 22,284
Sep 1, 2010 2:30pm
was just looking at magic numbers for Braves and Reds.
TedSheckler
Posts: 3,974
Sep 1, 2010 2:32pm
Better site... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB.html
Here is the Reds page... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/National/Central/Reds.html
97.9% chance of making the playoffs.
Updates daily and breaks down what will happen if other teams win or lose.
Here is the Reds page... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/National/Central/Reds.html
97.9% chance of making the playoffs.
Updates daily and breaks down what will happen if other teams win or lose.
D
dave
Posts: 4,558
Sep 1, 2010 2:34pm
I'll be much more interested in this stuff after Sunday.
justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 2:34pm
TedSheckler;468295 wrote:Better site... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB.html
Here is the Reds page... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/National/Central/Reds.html
97.9% chance of making the playoffs.
Updates daily and breaks down what will happen if other teams win or lose.
Cards only a 19% chance to make the playoffs. Hi-larry-us.
justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 2:35pm
dave;468301 wrote:I'll be much more interested in this stuff after Sunday.
Meh, even if the Cards sweep the Reds (which they won't IMO) they will continue to get beat by crappy teams.
If the Reds take one game in the series it would be a killer for the Cards.
karen lotz
Posts: 22,284
Sep 1, 2010 2:36pm
Reds magic number for division right now is 17. Braves is at 28.
se-alum
Posts: 13,948
Sep 1, 2010 2:37pm
I think if the Reds play .500 ball it would be nearly insurmountable for the Cards.
SportsAndLady
Posts: 35,632
Sep 1, 2010 2:44pm
se-alum;468307 wrote:I think if the Reds play .500 ball it would be nearly insurmountable for the Cards.
They'd only have to go 24-8, which isn't too crazy to think about ...I mean their offense has to come around eventually right? And the pitching too?
N
norwalk
Posts: 158
Sep 1, 2010 2:46pm
Don't count our chickens just yet.........
I agree with Dave. Wait until after Sunday and lets see where we stand.
I agree with Dave. Wait until after Sunday and lets see where we stand.
wes_mantooth
Posts: 17,977
Sep 1, 2010 4:04pm
Wonder what the Indians have to do to squeeze into the playoffs?
N
Nate
Posts: 3,949
Sep 1, 2010 4:10pm
Buy tickets.wes_mantooth;468489 wrote:Wonder what the Indians have to do to squeeze into the playoffs?
lhslep134
Posts: 9,774
Sep 1, 2010 4:14pm
If the Reds hold up form, and take the series from the Cards this weekend, not only will I be thoroughly impressed the Reds essentially eliminated them, but will also have no problem admitting I'm wrong.
Like I've posted on here, I'm an Indians fan first, but also I'm a Reds fan second, which any of my friends can attest to (I grew up supporting both teams since this was before interleague play and neither team ever played each other, and I loved baseball so much that I thought Ohio having 2 teams was the coolest thing ever). I still hate the Bengals and Bearcats, but like the Reds.
That being said, the Cardinals can still win the division by stepping up and sweeping the series this weekend and playing good ball. However, at this point, it's unlikely such a thing will occur.
Like I've posted on here, I'm an Indians fan first, but also I'm a Reds fan second, which any of my friends can attest to (I grew up supporting both teams since this was before interleague play and neither team ever played each other, and I loved baseball so much that I thought Ohio having 2 teams was the coolest thing ever). I still hate the Bengals and Bearcats, but like the Reds.
That being said, the Cardinals can still win the division by stepping up and sweeping the series this weekend and playing good ball. However, at this point, it's unlikely such a thing will occur.
justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 4:41pm
Cards currently have three outs to avoid getting swept by the Astros. They trail 5-2.
justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 4:42pm
Tomorrow is also the Cards last off-day of the season. Thirty-one consecutive days with a game.
justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 4:46pm
7.5 game lead.
karen lotz
Posts: 22,284
Sep 1, 2010 5:02pm
Magic number 16
justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 5:04pm
karen lotz;468541 wrote:Magic number 16
Sounds good, chief.
justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 5:07pm
By the way, your signature is inappropriate. Please change it.
justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 5:07pm
Just kidding!
justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Sep 1, 2010 5:11pm
You sure 16 is right? Redszone says 24.
D
dave
Posts: 4,558
Sep 1, 2010 5:54pm
24 sounds about right, no way it's 16
darbypitcher22
Posts: 8,000
Sep 1, 2010 6:50pm
Reds just need to keep playing solid ball and they'll be fine. I just saw a stat where the team ERA is like 6.50 in the last 10 games and Cueto is 1-1 w/ a 4.91 in his last two starts