sleeper;1644139 wrote:And how many 1st round QBs fail? Convenient you left off that statistic. You can find it another thread; I did all the research and proved the point easily with zero counters. If you don't draft a QB #1 overall, the odds are very high that player will bust out.
Considering QB is the most highlighted position and there are only 1 on the field (not like LB or CB for instance) of course teams draft more QBs per need on the field than any other position so yes there would be a higher percentage of busts.
However, I notice you don't actually counter my statistics there, 7 of 9 and 11 of 18 top QBs from last year were first round picks.
I'm sorry, but for the most part, you aren't finding top tier "hidden talent" QBs in later rounds. Not with the fact that teams are so fast to draft a QB since it is a huge need in the NFL and it is more "sexy" than an OLineman.
Heck, Dallas was going to draft Manziel in the first and they have ZERO need for a QB since Romo is a top 10 QB year in and year out. Why? Because it was "sexy".
You do not find many talented QBs past round 2, it just doesn't happen. And please don't give me Brady/Romo, the exceptions don't change the rule.
Last year, there were 14 QBs taken in the draft, for 32 teams.
By comparison, there were 44 OLinemen taken. By shear numbers on the field (5 vs 1) there should be 70 OLinemen taken if there are 14 QBs (or only 8 QBs for 44 OL).
And last year it was about the same, 11 QBs vs 41 OL.
Why? Because QBs are taken and taken much earlier than they "should" compared to other positions. Teams will die reaching for a QB because of the current state and rules of the game they are the most important position on the field. For this reason if you wait, like you suggest, you are stuck with drafting a 7th round talent in the 4th round.
The opposite is true for RBs now, but that's a whole different story.