Based on demand and the prices in the last five years I'd say oil is probably about where demand places it.
It isn't 5 years ago anymore. Right now our demand for oil is very weak while we are in this recession, as it is worldwide. The last time oil was this high during a recession was during the late 70s/early 80s when we also had double digit inflation, which will be coming soon.
Back to the currencies, do you really think that China will allow the Yuen to rise any substantial amount if the dollar falls? It's against their interests since they own so much U.S. debt. The weakening dollar is not really a benefit to them right now. Just means they overpaid for some debt.
I didn't say that China was going to destroy the dollar, just further weaken it. The reason the Chinese will have to appreciate the yuan has nothing to do with us, according to the article anyway. If those factors persist, they may have to substantially appreciate it, and who on earth is going to buy dollars that are backed by the full faith and credit of our printing press and $12 trillion debt when they can buy yuan?
And anyway it's unreasonable to expect the U.S. to get back to the growth of the 90s. The world economic climate is vastly different. China is no longer blind to the benefits of free(ish) trade, Japan continues to gain traction, the European Union is solidifying itself as a major economic power, India is showing substantial growth in tech and industry, and Russia isn't reeling from the collapse of the Soviet Union so much anymore. There's simply more viable competitors and it stands to reason that we'll loose some of our power.
Under our communo-fascist economic system that we have been developing for 90 years, I can't argue with anything you said here, though it really doesn't have anything to do with the original point.
