Interesting that fivethirtyeight is predicting OU and tOSU in, ND out. Not buying but would love to hear the howls if it happened.
My take is that 4-5 is really close in my eyes, based on my criteria, not the committee's, whose stated criteria seems to change like the wind:
Better wins: slight edge tOSU.
Less impactful loss (term is mine only to avoid using "best or good loss" - there's no such thing): edge OU
Better schedule - don't need stats, just working eyes to see B1G is substantially better than B12: edge tOSU
Consistency over the course of the year: edge OU
At voting time, I'd have to go with OU by the smallest of margins.