NFL Playoff Thread

thavoice Senior Member
15,437 posts 41 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, Jan 25, 2018 12:38 PM
posted by Ironman92

Or do the opposite knowing the other side is due

Possibly...........

That's why I don't gamble!

 

 

33,369 posts 118 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, Jan 25, 2018 12:49 PM

That’s typical. Underdogs who cover, usually win. 90% is extreme, but also way less games. But yeah, in a typical season or week the winning team usually covers.

thavoice Senior Member
15,437 posts 41 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, Jan 25, 2018 12:53 PM
posted by Laley23

That’s typical. Underdogs who cover, usually win. 90% is extreme, but also way less games. But yeah, in a typical season or week the winning team usually covers.

He was talking only about the SB.   Those who win, fav or dog, cover 90%.   

33,369 posts 118 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, Jan 25, 2018 1:35 PM
posted by thavoice

He was talking only about the SB.   Those who win, fav or dog, cover 90%.   

And I’m saying that isn’t surprising. It goes along with the rest of the games in the NFL.

33,369 posts 118 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, Jan 25, 2018 1:40 PM

Favorites cover the spread 49% of the time since 2003. Same time frame, underdogs win 35% of the time. That equates to about 84% of the time, the winning team covers. I’m not sure why anyone would be surprised by this same trend happening in the SB.

thavoice Senior Member
15,437 posts 41 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, Jan 25, 2018 1:52 PM
posted by Laley23

Favorites cover the spread 49% of the time since 2003. Same time frame, underdogs win 35% of the time. That equates to about 84% of the time, the winning team covers. I’m not sure why anyone would be surprised by this same trend happening in the SB.

Dan Patrick and his cohorts were surprised but I guessif ya are into gambling ya know that stuff

 

33,369 posts 118 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, Jan 25, 2018 2:42 PM

posted by thavoice

Dan Patrick and his cohorts were surprised but I guessif ya are into gambling ya know that stuff

 

It sounds crazy until you realize that underdogs win games around 1/3 of the time. So, that’s an automatic cover. 

Basically, 3 outcomes possible, right?

  • Favorite wins and covers
  • Underdog wins
  • Favorite wins and underdog covers

The last, even on the surface, is obviously the least likely to happen. So, when you break it down like that, you expect the winner to cover the spread a significant amount of the time.

thavoice Senior Member
15,437 posts 41 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, Jan 25, 2018 3:13 PM
posted by Laley23

posted by thavoice

It sounds crazy until you realize that underdogs win games around 1/3 of the time. So, that’s an automatic cover. 

Basically, 3 outcomes possible, right?

  • Favorite wins and covers
  • Underdog wins
  • Favorite wins and underdog covers

The last, even on the surface, is obviously the least likely to happen. So, when you break it down like that, you expect the winner to cover the spread a significant amount of the time.

When ya really think of it you are correct. I do think a lot of people get hung up on the points though.  They believe x will win but not by the spread.

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