posted by j_crazy
I get what you are saying, but there is a fairly significant chance we are going to get a huge detrimental revision to the tax code.
Hard to argue with that.
My plan is in the first 5-10 years of retirement to live off savings in a brokerage (i.e. low taxable income) and then do Roth backdoor conversions until the marginal rate doesn't make sense to convert more. I'm banking backdoor conversions aren't done away with, obviously.
So that's how I will achieve balance between taxable 401K distribution and non-taxable Roth IRA distributions. There's always going to be progressive tax, so up to a certain amount of income should always come from your 401K (less any social security received). Then, once you're into higher marginal rates, you would draw income from a Roth IRA or from a brokerage account (which would be subject to a 15% capital gains, that may increase but the lower bracket for cap gains has been 15-20% for a long, long time).
To me a Roth conversion is very costly, especially if you believe SS is going away. Because you might be drawing up to $80k from a 401K until you a married couple hits a marginal rate over 15%. That means, in today's dollars, you should have about $2M in your 401K before you start thinking about shorting your 401k contribution for a Roth or Brokerage account.
I also haven't mentioned state taxes. The 401K contribution is not taxable at the state level - a Roth conversion is (because it's ordinary income). This is very significant, especially when you consider many people might retire to a state with no income tax....so you're not just deferring but completely avoiding the state income tax on that money.