Covid-19 discussion, continued...

So, the US is back to caring about Covid?

posted by like_that

So, the US is back to caring about Covid?

I'm looking forward to a major change in tone (a.k.a "flip-flop") around about January 21st.

posted by gut

posted by justincredible

As of last week, the number of positive tests as a percentage of total tests were on the decline. It was something like 4-5% of tests were coming back positive. My wife is on a call, once she's off I'll verify the data.

It seems like most of the states are seeing an increase simply because of more testing.  But AR, TX and FL definitely have a problem with an increase in the percent of positive results (and also their hospitals).

But conservative media keeps chirping about "their deaths keep declining!!!".  It's a lagging indicator, jackass.  Let's see what happens in about 3 weeks.

Hospitalizations and deaths don't lag by 3 weeks. The original peak in the USA, the peak deaths only lagged the original peak cases by 10 days. We have been increasing again for 10 days or more and the deaths have still been going down or staying even in all states.

posted by jmog

Hospitalizations and deaths don't lag by 3 weeks. The original peak in the USA, the peak deaths only lagged the original peak cases by 10 days. We have been increasing again for 10 days or more and the deaths have still been going down or staying even in all states.

Hospitals can lag a week or two.  Deaths are 3-4, sometimes 5 weeks after contracting the virus.  What you're forgetting about the initial peak is millions of cases had gone undiagnosed.  So that's an apples to oranges comparison.  It takes, on average, about a month to die after the onset of symptoms.  

posted by gut

posted by jmog

Hospitalizations and deaths don't lag by 3 weeks. The original peak in the USA, the peak deaths only lagged the original peak cases by 10 days. We have been increasing again for 10 days or more and the deaths have still been going down or staying even in all states.

Hospitals can lag a week or two.  Deaths are 3-4, sometimes 5 weeks after contracting the virus.  What you're forgetting about the initial peak is millions of cases had gone undiagnosed.  So that's an apples to oranges comparison.  It takes, on average, about a month to die after the onset of symptoms.  

The statistics just do not agree with you. 

posted by gut

posted by jmog

Hospitalizations and deaths don't lag by 3 weeks. The original peak in the USA, the peak deaths only lagged the original peak cases by 10 days. We have been increasing again for 10 days or more and the deaths have still been going down or staying even in all states.

Hospitals can lag a week or two.  Deaths are 3-4, sometimes 5 weeks after contracting the virus.  What you're forgetting about the initial peak is millions of cases had gone undiagnosed.  So that's an apples to oranges comparison.  It takes, on average, about a month to die after the onset of symptoms.  

There have been 10-11 peaks of cases if you look at the daily up and downs, each peak of deaths lagged the cases by basically 10-11 days each and every time. Look at the numbers. I mean it is almost exact each and every peak. You have a peak in cases, then 10-11 days later a peak in deaths. We are 10 days away from the 2nd to last peak and 3 days from the latest peak in cases.

If we don't have a huge spike in deaths over the next 5-7 days then this new "peak" cases is proven to be due to more testing of low symptom to asymptomatic people rather than a huge spike in spreading the virus. 

Look, our last "normal" spike in cases (meaning a cyclic spike but still trending down) was on June 12th and our last normal spike in deaths was June 23rd, or 11 days. We have gone nothing but up since June 14th in cases, so we should have started going nothing but up in deaths by June 25th, just like the initial surge from early March to mid April. 

Instead we have still gone down the last few days in deaths/day. Unless that makes a drastic change in the next couple days, then people are getting riled up about added testing and not the numbers that REALLY matter (hospitalizations and deaths), which are still going down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

A  lot of interaction of teens right now with HS sports entering week 4.  Doesnt seem to be much news of wide spreading around that age level.

Good sign we can just head back to school

posted by jmog

The statistics just do not agree with you. 

Fauci does.

You know that stat you just cited about peak deaths is very problematic.  Millions of people were undiagnosed, and most of the testing was only people going to the hospital, and people were told not to go to the hospital unless they were sick enough to be required to be admitted.

It is 100% fact that it takes 3-4+ weeks to die after contracting the virus. When you start seeing a rise in cases, the deaths from those new cases are going to lag 3-4 weeks.  I'll take the science over your "statistics".   The average age declining might mitigate it, but we'll have to see.

posted by jmog

Instead we have still gone down the last few days in deaths/day. Unless that makes a drastic change in the next couple days, then people are getting riled up about added testing and not the numbers that REALLY matter (hospitalizations and deaths), which are still going down.

posted by Spock

A  lot of interaction of teens right now with HS sports entering week 4.  Doesnt seem to be much news of wide spreading around that age level.

Good sign we can just head back to school

Yep. Saw about 25 Kettering high schoolers at cross country practice tonight. Why they were running during the hottest part of the day, I’m not sure. 

Justin, are you in Hamilton county? If they tried to do lockdowns specifically there would you be okay with that? Would you just go to another county to drink at a bar?

posted by friendfromlowry

Justin, are you in Hamilton county? If they tried to do lockdowns specifically there would you be okay with that? Would you just go to another county to drink at a bar?

I am in HamCo. I would not be okay with it, and would frequent any and all establishments that defied a lockdown order.

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1277735362148917249

Arizona closing down a bunch of shit for 30 more days at least.

I’d be really pissed off if he just bypassed mandatory masks and started closing shit down. 

posted by gut

posted by jmog

Instead we have still gone down the last few days in deaths/day. Unless that makes a drastic change in the next couple days, then people are getting riled up about added testing and not the numbers that REALLY matter (hospitalizations and deaths), which are still going down.

LOL, you know better than to do garbage analysis like that with stats.  What you're suggesting is a scientific impossibility.  The people dying 10 days after the "peak" had that virus weeks before the peek.    You're taking two completely different groups of people and claiming a relationship.  The true peak, if you tested everyone, was probably a month before the deaths peaked.

But you are just not right.

The typical/average timeline is 5 days from infection for symptoms to show up and in the severe cases the average is 7-10 days for severe (hospitalization level) symptoms to develop after the initial symptoms. The initial symptoms is typically where people are tested, so 7-10 days later they develop the severe symptoms (if they are going to), and within a few days they die.

That is the average/typical. We protect against the worst case/long term cases of 2-3 weeks from initial symptom but that is not the average. Look up anything and the average from first symptom to death (for death cases) is in that 10 day range. 

The one person I know (friend of family) who died from this was right in that 10 day window from first symptom to death. 

I am sorry gut, but given that the statistics show the typical/average and Fauci has to protect against the longest possible cases, you are just not right here. There is a 100% correllation statistically between the new cases/day and new deaths/day and the clinical data shows the causation. So yes, we do have correllation AND causation.

https://patient.info/news-and-features/coronavirus-how-quickly-do-covid-19-symptoms-develop-and-how-long-do-they-last

posted by friendfromlowry

The 2-5 day turnaround is fucking ridiculous. Hopefully they’re just being conservative and it’ll come back much sooner. 

When my wife was tested it took 7 days for her to get the results. My results took 5 days.

Our hospital has had expedited testing since at least 6/1 (that’s the oldest email I have) with guaranteed turn around time of 2 hours. We reserve them for high-risk patients (e.g. direct ICU admission, urgent surgery, maternal/fetal) to reserve supply, but the technology is definitely available. Baffling that it isn’t widely available, but I suppose there’s a large component of capitalism involved. 

I appreciate quality trolling as much as anyone, but this scores double for being tone deaf:

My wife works at UC, and has been remote since March. Found out today she’ll be remote the entire fall semester.