Covid-19 discussion, continued...

From the medical professionals I speak to, the money maker for profit hospitals is the % of persons in the ICU, and meeting the margins of expenses.  It is a balance of determining how sick a patient is, and if they can attribute for federal funds.  I don't know where Lowry is, can't speak to the ICU capacity there, not seeing it where I travel.

Let's not get away from the real problem here, the government endorses the Standard American Diet, that destroys the metabolic health of those who follow it, leading to Pharma and hospitals to profit from poor health.  Can't make any $ off of health people.  Tyranny is forcing restrictions effecting the mental health of this nation to save the less than 1% that this certain virus becomes critical for.

posted by friendfromlowry

I don't see where anyone told you that you shouldn't believe the Ohio DOH website numbers. Maybe I missed that post? 

My point is don't look at those numbers alone and consider yourself in any position to conclude hospitals aren't overwhelmed. As someone else said, these patients require more intense, time consuming care. It takes a lot resources to care for the very sick patients. 

Did you see your rant above? You may want to reference it when you read your first question in this post. 

posted by Rotinaj

Jmog once had a very sick 2nd cousin he took care of for 2 days. Trust me, he knows exactly how much resources it takes.

Nope, no clue, nice try though.

Just going off the data given.

posted by jmog

Did you see your rant above? You may want to reference it when you read your first question in this post. 

My “rant” was giving you insight into why hospitals might be considered overwhelmed instead of you looking up data that doesn’t provide the full picture. Look up and believe all the numbers you want. I never told you not to. But it’s absolutely ignorant of you to conclude something about hospitals based on the ODH numbers alone. 

posted by friendfromlowry

My “rant” was giving you insight into why hospitals might be considered overwhelmed instead of you looking up data that doesn’t provide the full picture. Look up and believe all the numbers you want. I never told you not to. But it’s absolutely ignorant of you to conclude something about hospitals based on the ODH numbers alone. 

You went on a four letter word laden rant because someone took the best statistics we have from the ODH and said that it doesn’t appear that the hospitals are about to be overwhelmed.

So, your four letter word laden rant filled with anecdotal from your hospital, while probably all true, doesn’t mean it is the same at the majority of hospitals in the state right now, as evidence by the ODH data.

No one is saying your statements are false, even though you appeared to be severely triggered by it based on your rant.

No one is saying your experience is wrong, but you have to also understand that your experience may not be state or nation wide based on the best data we have.

Telling people to “fuck off” on reading actual data and just accept that your anecdotal is true across the board is just as asinine as if someone said your experience is wrong and made up.

No way they want bars open for Thanksgiving with college students going home and meeting together at a local bar. 

There is an interesting trend across the country when it comes to cases vs deaths.

In both cases we are currently in the 3rd wave.

With respect to cases, each wave not only was higher than the previous wave, but was about double the previous wave. The peak of the first wave was about 35,000 cases in a day, second wave about 74,000 cases in a day. It is not certain that we are at the peak of the 3rd wave yet, so it could go higher, but the cases are 160k in a day right now. 

With deaths, it is the opposite trend.

First wave deaths peaked at about 2750 deaths in a day. Second wave peaked at about 1800 deaths in a day. And again, it is not certain that we have hit the peak yet for the 3rd wave, especially in deaths as death peaks tend to happen 7-14 days (typically 10-12) behind peaks in cases. So the next week or so it will be a key metric to see if deaths/day stay below 1800 even with skyrocketing cases. That is indicative of two things. One, that we are better at treating the virus. And two, the human immune system has started to catch up to the virus.

For instance, the current peak  in deaths (a day or 2 ago) is at about 1500 deaths, it correlates to the peak in cases about 12 days ago or so around October 30th, which was 101,000 cases. So 1500/101,000 is a death rate of about 1.48%.

That seems bad, but compared to the original peaks: cases 34,500, deaths 2700 which is a death rate of 7.83%. The current death rate being so much lower is a good/huge trend in the right direction. 

Using "cases" or "positive" as a metric is an awful way to frame this.  Critical patients, fatalities, and that ratio should be what we tell the public, but that does not meet the narrative. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fox8.com/news/coronavirus/cleveland-clinic-rescheduling-some-elective-procedures-to-make-room-for-covid-19-spike/amp/

Have they even looked at the ODH data tho? 

posted by kizer permanente

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fox8.com/news/coronavirus/cleveland-clinic-rescheduling-some-elective-procedures-to-make-room-for-covid-19-spike/amp/

Have they even looked at the ODH data tho? 

Sarcasm aside, preparing for a spike by rescheduling some elective procedures is not the same as being overwhelmed.

During our initial spike back in April/May every single hospital in Ohio stopped doing elective procedures completely in preparation for being hit with huge amounts of COVID patients. They never got overwhelmed at all. Their "overflow" tents never got used, the temporary hospitals put up in the major cities (Cincinnati, Columbus, and Cleveland all had one) never saw a single patient.

Preparing for the worst is not a terrible thing to do, but it doesn't mean the worst is happening/going to happen. It didn't the first wave, it is more likely than not going to overwhelm the system during this wave either based on existing data.

Also, maybe you missed the first line in the article that states:

"Although admissions are quickly increasing, the hospital system has sufficient bed space available."

I think the workers are overwhelmed at times even if there are beds especially as they get short staff

8071 cases today. 

Also my nurse friend told me they won’t be able to get the vaccine to too many people any time soon because it has to be stored at -80 and they don’t have freezers 

If you want to take a step back and look at the data and what is actually being said...

Wearing masks and distancing in a small gathering, enjoy up to 2 hours with your family over Thanksgiving.  Ignore that, and a "at risk" exposure is defined as 15 minutes.  So those simple and basic inconveniences provide up to 8X the protection. 

You can socialize responsibly, but people are choosing not to.  We're not being asked to give up a lot, but a lot of people ignoring those guidelines and fueling the spread are the same people bitching about lockdowns preventing people from earning a living. 

Also, one CDC official testified before Congress given the choice between a vaccine that is 50-60% effective and a mask to protect himself, he'd choose the mask.  Might have been the same guy, but another CDC person recently said they have data now that shows masks provide 70% protection for the person wearing them (he was holding up a surgical mask when he said that - KN95 are even better).  I would say not only is that pretty good, that's better than almost everyone thought.

posted by geeblock

Also my nurse friend told me they won’t be able to get the vaccine to too many people any time soon because it has to be stored at -80 and they don’t have freezers 

60 Minutes interviewed the military guy in charge of distribution - I'm sure you can find the interview online if you're interested.  There are alternatives to freezers (I think maybe dry ice), and they have a heat map where they have the different levels of storage capacity (and places like Puerto Rico, I think, may have no storage capacity).

I only had it on in the background - there may have been talk of converting some of the big military cargo planes to be able to both store and transport the vaccinations.

They've known about these issues for a while, so this is a chance for the federal govt to actually get something right for a change.

posted by kizer permanente

8071 cases today. 

For comparison on 10/13 (a month ago) we had 1447 new cases. 

posted by geeblock

I think the workers are overwhelmed at times even if there are beds especially as they get short staff

This can be very true. I know a nurse that during the worst time in New York City back in April/May. She was offered something like $10,000/month to live in a self isolated/paid for apartment and work in the COVID wards there. Her hospital she works at now was going to allow her to go and still have her job when she gets back.

However, she decided she didn't want to spend a whole month or 2 away from her husband and kids.

For for $10k/mo I definitely would have had that as a serious conversation with my wife and kids, that's a good payday. I am sure she did to and just chose not to.

They were offering that kind of money because they were short staffed due to workers getting sick and/or workers refusing to come in due to the chance at getting sick.

posted by gut

If you want to take a step back and look at the data and what is actually being said...

Wearing masks and distancing in a small gathering, enjoy up to 2 hours with your family over Thanksgiving.  Ignore that, and a "at risk" exposure is defined as 15 minutes.  So those simple and basic inconveniences provide up to 8X the protection. 

You can socialize responsibly, but people are choosing not to.  We're not being asked to give up a lot, but a lot of people ignoring those guidelines and fueling the spread are the same people bitching about lockdowns preventing people from earning a living. 

Also, one CDC official testified before Congress given the choice between a vaccine that is 50-60% effective and a mask to protect himself, he'd choose the mask.  Might have been the same guy, but another CDC person recently said they have data now that shows masks provide 70% protection for the person wearing them (he was holding up a surgical mask when he said that - KN95 are even better).  I would say not only is that pretty good, that's better than almost everyone thought.

I seriously want to know where everyone else is going around in public and seeing all these people ignoring guidelines?

I have not only live and work in the Akron/Cleveland area but travel a lot for work. I would anecdotally (yeah, I know..) estimate that 98% of the people I see in public wearing a mask. I am sure that the vast majority of the 2% are "muh rights!" people and don't actually have a health problem.

So, even if I am guesstimating too high and its 95%. In areas I am at, 95% are wearing masks and the cases are still skyrocketing.

If that is the case and masks work, then the spread is happening to people staying in doors with their family right?

So tell me again how a lockdown and telling people to stay home (mostly) with their families will work again?

We all agree that lockdowns "flattened" the curve, but what isn't being addressed is that it doesn't change the total cases, total hospitalizations, and maybe not even the total deaths. It just pushes that "peak" out until you decide to open up again. 

Well, originally it was going to be 2-3 weeks. That was 7 months ago. Now they are saying "maybe just another month or two"...

People are tired, tired emotionally, physically, and mentally. Suicide rates are up something like 700% during lockdowns. Lock it down again, people get laid off at Christmas and suicides go up even more. The small gains from lockdowns would just be off set by mental health problems it causes, economic problems it causes, etc.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-11-12/covid-19-spread-at-thanksgiving-holiday-gatherings-could-be-like-maine-wedding?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

"jUsT StAy hOmE If yOu'Re sCaReD."

Cool, how about the people who don't attend weddings or parties or go to bars or restaurants, but then have to sit next to these selfish assholes at work? Some of these idiots went to work WHILE symptomatic. It's so depressing to me that people aren't willing to do the bare minimum to protect their fellow human beings. 

And yes, jmog and CC, I'm already aware that the people who died were old. Spare me.

Oh and I also live in Akron and there are plenty of people here who do not wear masks and who love to crowd people in line. I see it every time I go to the grocery store or gas station. There is not 95% mask usage here.