posted by O-Trap
Okay, good. Truthfully, it wouldn't surprise me for something like that to be less objective, which is why I didn't buck it much. I prefer knowing this, though.
Depends on what your definition of objective is. It's all based on estimates, but money managers are probably the most objective people on the planet, because stock prices don't give a shit about your politics.
I gave up on individual names because prices are basically set by people who spend all day digesting everything they can on a sector. They study earnings reports like auditors with OCD. They've thought thru every scenario and built it into their models. I take a seat at that table and I know I'm the sucker. You can have a great thesis, and even convince yourself it's brilliant and not a guess....I've had a few of those, but the truth is even the professionals struggle to beat the market.
The only proven strategy to beat the market is insider information. I stick with ETF's and try to focus on macro issues. And the hardest thing for most people trading individual names is being able to give up on a loser.