The 2020 Financial Crash

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  • Mon, Apr 20, 2020 5:29 PM
    posted by O-Trap

    Okay, good.  Truthfully, it wouldn't surprise me for something like that to be less objective, which is why I didn't buck it much.  I prefer knowing this, though.

    Depends on what your definition of objective is.  It's all based on estimates, but money managers are probably the most objective people on the planet, because stock prices don't give a shit about your politics.

    I gave up on individual names because prices are basically set by people who spend all day digesting everything they can on a sector.  They study earnings reports like auditors with OCD.  They've thought thru every scenario and built it into their models.  I take a seat at that table and I know I'm the sucker.  You can have a great thesis, and even convince yourself it's brilliant and not a guess....I've had a few of those, but the truth is even the professionals struggle to beat the market.

    The only proven strategy to beat the market is insider information.  I stick with ETF's and try to focus on macro issues.  And the hardest thing for most people trading individual names is being able to give up on a loser.

    Mon, Apr 27, 2020 9:02 AM
    posted by SportsAndLady

    I love DO. I have a bit too much of them, lol. 
    They have enough cash to last, and just restructured their debt. If oil comes back, which it should once we reopen and planes can start flying again, I should get paid out nicely on that one. 

    Welp, this looks like a loser. Down 60% premarket today after a chapter 11 was filed. It’s a bit odd, to be honest, since chapter 11 was always going to happen when they missed their debt payment 10 days ago. Sounds like it’s a simple debt restructuring, but maybe it’s more than that with the 60% sell off.
    Either way, that sucks. 

    Mon, Apr 27, 2020 9:50 AM

    I read JC Penney is probably going to file too. I could see more dept stores following,

    Mon, Apr 27, 2020 10:15 AM
    posted by iclfan2

    I read JC Penney is probably going to file too. I could see more dept stores following,

    Kind of shocked that JC Penny is still open.

    Mon, Apr 27, 2020 12:10 PM
    posted by SportsAndLady

    Welp, this looks like a loser. Down 60% premarket today after a chapter 11 was filed. It’s a bit odd, to be honest, since chapter 11 was always going to happen when they missed their debt payment 10 days ago. Sounds like it’s a simple debt restructuring, but maybe it’s more than that with the 60% sell off.
    Either way, that sucks. 

    The common stock will most likely be worthless.

     

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