The 2020 Financial Crash

Mon, Mar 9, 2020 9:49 AM

Catchall thread for discussing the absolute bloodbath going on now.

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  • Mon, Mar 9, 2020 9:57 AM

    Circuit breaker! 

    Perfect mix of the fears of the virus and the drop in oil prices. 

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 9:59 AM

    So many ridiculous bargains, so little free cash to take advantage of them.

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 10:04 AM

    Fucking Saudi Arabia

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 10:07 AM

    Looks like it would be a good day to buy the dip...

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 10:10 AM
    posted by iclfan2

    Fucking Saudi Arabia

    And Russia. 

    Also, shows just how interconnected the world economy still is. 

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 10:40 AM
    posted by like_that

    Looks like it would be a good day to buy the dip...

    How’s It going where you are?

     

    I saw a 16 million people quarantine? 

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 10:53 AM
    posted by kizer permanente

    How’s It going where you are?

     

    I saw a 16 million people quarantine? 

    Do you want me to answer this in the coronavirus thread lol?

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 11:02 AM

    Trump will fix it

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 11:05 AM
    posted by like_that

    Do you want me to answer this in the coronavirus thread lol?

    Thats fine.. probably better.

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 11:12 AM
    posted by Spock

    Trump will fix it


    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 11:22 AM

    my old employer is down like 44% today. luckily i sold all my shares last year (at a substantial loss) so it's not as big of a gut punch for me.

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 2:02 PM
    posted by like_that

    Looks like it would be a good day to buy the dip...

    Tempting, but if this all triggers a recession (which we're long overdue for, anyway) then another 10-20% decline is very doable.

    Given financial assets have been inflated by low rates, again, and tax cuts the sell-off could approach 2008 levels.  Housing shouldn't be nearly as bad, but a brutal recession and market sell-off means people have much smaller nest eggs to put into buying a home.

    The VIX is over 50 (haven't seen that in at least 20 years), and the 10-yr hit a historic low.  Those are huge indicators of a recession.  On the other hand, it's sort of a peak panic indicator, too, which could be signaling we're close to the bottom.  But, you know, we could trade sideways for a few months and then the earnings reports start disappointing because of the impact of the virus, which is when the recession sell-off starts.

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 2:15 PM
    posted by Spock

    Trump will fix it

    How's your 401k doing today?

    Mon, Mar 9, 2020 2:15 PM

    Anyway, I have a good bit of money I was planning to invest (not that I was trying to time anything).  I had been hoping to put it in fixed income, but between the rate cuts and flight to safety that timing is terrible.

    I might buy equities soon with the cash I have, but wait until things stabilize to rotate out of the fixed income I have.  You never really "see" the bottom, which is why market timing is foolish, and then you miss a big part of the rally which comes quickly.

    We are officially in bear market territory.  Long-term that's usually not a bad time to put money to work (except the few times it was a horrible time to jump in).  The market fundamentals weren't really there to justify the valuation, and now the fundamentals don't justify the current valuations driven mainly by uncertainty.

    Another long post saying I don't know what to do.  But the professionals don't appear to, either.  You have to consider the increasingly real potential for massive global quarantines, which would eviscerate trillions in economic value.  Imagine 120M workers in the US not getting a paycheck for a month - that sort of economic shock will take well over a year to recover from.

    Tue, Mar 10, 2020 2:34 AM
    posted by Spock

    Trump will fix it

    Seriously, it's like watching a cartoon.

    Tue, Mar 10, 2020 7:34 AM

    Sitting on lump of cash this morning watching the futures market for the opening today.  Gonna be some serious money to be made this morning.  Got one buy to make that is gonna pay off bigly.

     

     

    Tue, Mar 10, 2020 2:58 PM

    Still some downside out there.  Once the sensationalism clears and reality sets back in, there will be a lot of value to be had.

    Wed, Mar 11, 2020 7:21 AM

    Up big at close yesterday.  Likely will level out now for quite awhile.  

    Wed, Mar 11, 2020 10:31 AM

     

    I would not be surprised if we get another 10%-12% down ………The media hysteria is forcing some irrational behavior.  Second half of the year should see a strong rebound.

     

    Wed, Mar 11, 2020 10:48 AM
    posted by QuakerOats

     

    I would not be surprised if we get another 10%-12% down ………The media hysteria is forcing some irrational behavior.  Second half of the year should see a strong rebound.

     

    Market up = Trump genius playing 4D chess 8 moves ahead.

    Market down = Hysterics that the Big Bad Media unleashes in a bid to destroy the world.  

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