2024 Presidential Election Thread

posted by like_that

Anyway, good move for the Dems to whack Biden (anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional) and force down a candidate that nobody would have voted for in a real primary. The media will do their best to paint Kamala as another Obama movement, and I think she will do better than Biden, but Kamala has the same problem as Biden. The only real thing going for her campaign is Trump (sprinkle in her sex and race).  I could obviously be wrong, but if their entire strategy is orange man is bad, I don’t think the result will be any different than if Biden were the candidate (which was his strategy).

This.

My opinion of the most likely outcomes, in order (as of right now, things change quickly).

-Harris selects Josh Shapiro as VP, wins Pennsylvania by default (still a huge task) and focuses the rest of her efforts in Michigan/Wisconsin.  The probability of Trump doing dumb things before November, and Harris' window staying open long enough for her to win the margins in Mi/Ws, is higher than I like.  Obviously a moot point if Donald wins Pennsylvania.  270-268, Harris.

-Trump wins a blowout over Harris, who performs essentially like she's polling in the swing states.  312-226, Trump.

-The Dems panic before the DNC and pull the last second switch to Michelle Obama, who I think would win pretty easily.  

I think JD Vance was a massive mistake for Trump.  Ohio is locked down, the guy brings literally nothing to the table. 

posted by Trueblue23

This.

My opinion of the most likely outcomes, in order (as of right now, things change quickly).

-Harris selects Josh Shapiro as VP, wins Pennsylvania by default (still a huge task) and focuses the rest of her efforts in Michigan/Wisconsin.  The probability of Trump doing dumb things before November, and Harris' window staying open long enough for her to win the margins in Mi/Ws, is higher than I like.  Obviously a moot point if Donald wins Pennsylvania.  270-268, Harris.

There is some validity in this. The Dem strategy is, paraphrasing, this: 

"For every blue collar democrat we lose we will pick up two white collar Republicans". 

Easily done in a place like Pa.

Edit to add;

Also, Kamala hit with articles of impeachment for the border crises and covering up Biden's condition.

posted by CenterBHSFan

Also, Kamala hit with articles of impeachment for the border crises and covering up Biden's condition.

Meh.  Irrelevant at this point.

posted by Trueblue23

Meh.  Irrelevant at this point.

This is the Republicans playing the tit for tat game. Unwise, to be sure. But the Dems can't act surprised after all the bastardy they've committed.

I hate DC!

It is easy to dismiss Project 2025 because it suddenly became viral. 

But, was being reported before the debate and even last year when the report was released.

The fact it comes from former Trump people at Heritage is what gives it validity. 

The report came about from the fact Trump was surprised he won in 2016 and his ramp up to take office in 2017 was slow. The report is a blueprint for his administration to hit the ground running. This is boldy stated in the report.

It's authors are people that were in the first administration and expect to be in mid to high levels in the new one. 

Think tanks like Heritage are where former government folks go in-between administrations. The Center for American Progress, New America and Carnegie are the ones on the left. Heritage, American enterprise institution and Lexington institution are examples for ones on the right. People shuffle in and out of these. So, it is expected these guys will be in the next Trump administration as that is the machine works.

Trump can say he is distancing from it, but his new administration will need qualified people...and those people will be in think tanks like Heritage. 

I also think reading some parts of it, some on here would be in favor of some of it. Some parts will require Congressional approval, but others may not especially with recent rulings. 

Possible honeymoon phase bump for Kamala, the next few weeks of polls should be interesting.  I expect Trump's camp to ramp up the ads and hits on KH significantly. 

#NEW @EmersonPolling/@thehill Swing State Polls:

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 48% (+2)
Harris 46%
.
MICHIGAN
Trump 46% (+1)
Harris 45%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 47%
Harris 47%
.
GEORGIA
Trump 48% (+2)
Harris 46%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 49% (+5)
Harris 44%

4,095 RV, 7/22-23https://t.co/Frmublr9CT pic.twitter.com/XP7gCG2hdt

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 25, 2024

I think Wisconsin will be safely Dem, almost no matter what. 

But the Dems really should rethink their openly public strategy of ditching the working class altogether. Otherwise they will eventually only be left with California and New York. 

posted by CenterBHSFan

This is mostly what I think. The wall they ran into was that they didn't have a stable of people with high name recognition with good (doesn't have to be great) accomplishments. They have focused all of their energy in orange man bad! for 8yrs that they didn't put any energy into grooming anybody to be at the ready. So now they have painted themselves into a corner and only have Kamala. 

Ok, so what they should be doing is have their stenographers pointing out all of her strong points and focusing on how to play up her good points, in whatever way they can to give their voters something to vote for.

But they aren't. They are focusing on P2025. And to be fair, it's working. Ptown is carrying it as we've already seen. The problem that lies beneath is that it's really early to be doing that. It will be a spent dick come the end of September.

Well, if we're being real, since Trump did just nearly get killed and that led to an immediate "Welp, guess that sewed up the election for him!" response AND the Ds did just replace their candidate, I think they kind of had to bring out P2025 as a way to blunt any additional support the last few weeks may have given him.

And, to continue being real, since we are talking about Donald Trump, I'd guess the Ds also figure that since we still have 3+ months before the election, the odds are way in favor of him saying, doing or allegedly saying/doing (ie: where validity gets "trumped" by simple plausibility) multiple more things they can try to nail him on. I mean, I woke up today and saw on teh Twitter that one of his nephews claimed that, in talking about disabled people, said that at least some of them should just die because expenses or whatnot. True or not? Who knows! But it will get people buzzing for, I don't know, 6 hours or so!

Historically the "experts" have always said there's no evidence the VP moves the needle, really at all.

People made a big deal about it this cycle because of the likelihood Biden wouldn't make it another 4 years, and the probability Trump won't.  

Choosing Vance let's Trump's base know his policies will continue if he doesn't finish, and someone they can rally behind as a potential POTUS in 2028.  I seriously, seriously doubt many people were saying "well, I'm not voting for Trump, but now that he picked [Tulsi] I'm all in!".

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Trump can say he is distancing from it, but his new administration will need qualified people...and those people will be in think tanks like Heritage.

Sooooo more gaslighting where ignore what Trump says, THIS is what he really means or is going to happen?

You're like a cat with a laser pointer. 

posted by gut

Sooooo more gaslighting where ignore what Trump says, THIS is what he really means or is going to happen?

You're like a cat with a laser pointer. 

So you do not think these are the people that will surround the President to influence his decisions or run the agencies? 

Isn't your whole theory that the President himself doesn't have much power, it is more the people around him? 

posted by gut

Sooooo more gaslighting where ignore what Trump says, THIS is what he really means or is going to happen?

You're like a cat with a laser pointer. 

The fascination with Project 2025 is an expert level course in propaganda. 

Maybe trump shouldn’t have said in 2022 that the heritage foundation would create the framework for his next administration? If it’s propaganda it is their own propaganda. 

posted by gut

Sooooo more gaslighting where ignore what Trump says, THIS is what he really means or is going to happen?

You're like a cat with a laser pointer. 

So when he said he never heard of it your believe that? 

Trump: I’ve never seen the document 

Trump:in many cases the points are fine points 

Trump: many of the points I don’t agree with but also I don’t know anything about the document. 

This makes no sense 

DEI - right wing propaganda nothing to see here

Project 2025 - fact

posted by majorspark

DEI - right wing propaganda nothing to see here

Project 2025 - fact

Isn't that the way of politics? One team's nothing-burger is the other team's boogeyman and vice versa.

posted by Heretic

Isn't that the way of politics? One team's nothing-burger is the other team's boogeyman and vice versa.

Yes.  But since I have never mentioned DEI on this site and left that burger for others to fight over, the comment has merit.  Those who feel the post is directed at them are likely correct.

posted by majorspark

DEI - right wing propaganda nothing to see here

Project 2025 - fact

I did post the actual link to the Project with authors and everything....