2024 Presidential Election Thread

posted by gut

It's impossible to quantify that statement.  There are A LOT of morons on the left.

Like 2/3 the country are "blue no matter who" or "red until I'm dead".  How informed they are probably varies, but advertising is aimed at turning those voters out.

Many of the rest who claim to be independent are making their minds up on little else than friends or family and a few ad spots.  You don't get candidates like Trump and Biden/Kamala unless most of the electorate are uninformed morons.

It is impossible to quantify - just my anecdotal observation.  Someone in a different life circumstance than me could say something different.

I think this year is the Weaponization of the Vote year. I don't even think it's an ideology game this year, but rather people voting for who they think can best wreck other people.

I think that maybe a few of these percentages are going to Jill Stein.

posted by CenterBHSFan

I think that maybe a few of these percentages are going to Jill Stein.

If this poll even comes close to being accurate, Trump wins easy. That would be 19% of African American vote for a R. 

It was 13% in 2020….a 6 pt swing and a similar swing (slightly higher) in Latino?

If those are accurate that’s doomsday level polls for Harris campaign. I don’t think the polls show her picking up those numbers in the Caucasian voters.

posted by jmog

If this poll even comes close to being accurate, Trump wins easy. That would be 19% of African American vote for a R. 

It was 13% in 2020….a 6 pt swing and a similar swing (slightly higher) in Latino?

If those are accurate that’s doomsday level polls for Harris campaign. I don’t think the polls show her picking up those numbers in the Caucasian voters.

It's possible that it will help Trump. I've seen clips of him saying he likes Jill Stein so yeah.

I think Kamala is riding the abortion topic hard because she's trying to pick up young women in the most common pregnancy ages to make up for losing the Muslim/Lebanese vote that she's bleeding out by the bucketful. 

posted by jmog

If this poll even comes close to being accurate, Trump wins easy. That would be 19% of African American vote for a R. 

It was 13% in 2020….a 6 pt swing and a similar swing (slightly higher) in Latino?

If those are accurate that’s doomsday level polls for Harris campaign. I don’t think the polls show her picking up those numbers in the Caucasian voters.

I'm casually following these polls but more interested in the betting lines which are usually more accurate (although it's illegal to bet on elections in the US).

posted by BR1986FB

I'm casually following these polls but more interested in the betting lines which are usually more accurate (although it's illegal to bet on elections in the US).

It is not illegal to bet on US elections.

posted by Trueblue23

It is not illegal to bet on US elections.

My bad. Saw it just became legal.

I've been staying out of this thread for a while because I've been having election fatigue.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure Trump is winning PA this year.

https://x.com/margommartin/status/1848167072917868777

posted by justincredible

I've been staying out of this thread for a while because I've been having election fatigue.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure Trump is winning PA this year.

https://x.com/margommartin/status/1848167072917868777

I've got Pennsylvania slightly red on my map prediction. Philly and Pitt are going to be hard to overcome imo. I don't know if the farmlands of the Amish are going to be enough. 

It just seems soooooo close everywhere, my goodness!

I still think Kamala is going to win. The hard part is figuring out her path to the EC.

posted by CenterBHSFan

I still think Kamala is going to win. The hard part is figuring out her path to the EC.

You're thinking too hard. Trump is taking the EC and popular vote. Just sit back and enjoy the show.

posted by justincredible

I've been staying out of this thread for a while because I've been having election fatigue.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure Trump is winning PA this year.

https://x.com/margommartin/status/1848167072917868777

If PA goes Trump I don’t know how Harris pulls out the EC  

posted by justincredible

I've been staying out of this thread for a while because I've been having election fatigue.

Anyway, I'm pretty sure Trump is winning PA this year.

https://x.com/margommartin/status/1848167072917868777

Well, with the way the Steelers whipped on those Jets when he was there, I might have to reconsider him!

posted by justincredible

You're thinking too hard. Trump is taking the EC and popular vote. Just sit back and enjoy the show.

I will concede to the idea that, if Trump were to win, it's because Kamala never focused enough on her positive traits - whatever people think they are. In today's climate, it's enough to be a woman.

posted by Heretic

Well, with the way the Steelers whipped on those Jets when he was there, I might have to reconsider him!

posted by CenterBHSFan

I still think Kamala is going to win. The hard part is figuring out her path to the EC.

I'll admit to being confused. On the map thread, you have Trump winning, but on this one, you regularly say that Harris should win. That is a little strange, as for one to win, they do kinda have to win the map and get the EC. Am I missing something obvious or is this just Overthinking 101 on display?

posted by Heretic

I'll admit to being confused. On the map thread, you have Trump winning, but on this one, you regularly say that Harris should win. That is a little strange, as for one to win, they do kinda have to win the map and get the EC. Am I missing something obvious or is this just Overthinking 101 on display?

As king of the reverse jinx…..I feel he’s going that direction 

posted by Ironman92

As king of the reverse jinx…..I feel he’s going that direction 

*she 😂 

It's probably cuz I hate him, but I don't see how Trump can win. Early voting numbers... new voter registrations favoring Kamala.. I just cant see Trumpy winning.