posted by ptown_trojans_1
Yeah, largely agreed. I'm not so sure there is a secret Trump voter out there yet. I think the secret Trump voter in 2016 was a lot of undecided voters. Those undecided voters are largely gone now and in the Biden camp at least at this point. A lot can change between now and election day.
Hiden Biden, come on, I prefer Creepy Uncle Joe.
Maybe. I think there might be evidence the secret Trump voter is still a major factor. I've even seen some surprising data that Trump might even be gaining in the black vote.
I think before Covid-19 Trump was probably heading for re-election. I'd guess the state he's most vulnerable is Florida.
Mail in voting is going to throw these polls out the door, as well. Models based on historical turnout go out the window. I might be inclined to think that favors Biden, but I'm not so sure. I'm not sure there are large disparities in turnout across different voting blocs. In that case, it would come down to who has the better ground game, and that almost always favors the incumbent.
Speaking if the above, that's why it might surprise me to see Trump lose Ohio or Michigan. But by the same logic, Biden might have an excellent chance of taking Florida, especially because efforts can be focused in a few strong Democratic counties to tilt the balance.