posted by like_thatPretty much what Nate Silver said, so you're officially on his level!
Boo!
I just am leary of making predictions since, you know, I predicted Hillary Clinton to win the presidency...
I'm NO good at it haha! (which means, neither is Silver)
Alright, I just took the plunge and predicted that the republicans hold both.
posted by justincrediblewut
The talking heads say that 35 House races will determine the outcome. Dems need something like 23 of the 35 to win back the house. I know that there are 400+ total seats but 35 are toss ups
Video going around from MSNBC saying that voter suppression is already happening across the country. I guess they are hedging a possible loss tomorrow by preempting reasons.
posted by CenterBHSFanVideo going around from MSNBC saying that voter suppression is already happening across the country. I guess they are hedging a possible loss tomorrow by preempting reasons.
CYA on their defeat. Lose and they will scream Russia....Russia......Russia
posted by CenterBHSFanVideo going around from MSNBC saying that voter suppression is already happening across the country. I guess they are hedging a possible loss tomorrow by preempting reasons.
Seen Fox News, and of course Trump, going on about fictional illegal voting, so the right has their bases covered as well.
posted by cbus4lifeSeen Fox News, and of course Trump, going on about fictional illegal voting, so the right has their bases covered as well.
Just pointing out the irony of me watching something from MSNBC and you watching FOX lol!
Also, the same clip I watched had something about vote hacking in Georgia as well.
I hope Ted Cruz loses.
FollowFollow @SarahTheHaider
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I know there is a lot coming from the left that is disheartening (to say the least). But please, *please* vote for the Dems tomorrow. There is so much at stake in this election. Vote, and be counted as among those who took a stand.
https://twitter.com/SarahTheHaider/status/1059696669363712000
Seeing all sorts of tweets like this today. "I know they're bad, but vote for them anyway! ;D "
posted by friendfromlowryI hope Ted Cruz loses.
Beto is pretty terrible for Texas
Comments on that tweet are interesting.
posted by friendfromlowryI hope Ted Cruz loses.
With the money pouring in from all over the country for Beto, I hope he (Beto) loses and a few other close races for the Dems are lost (McCaskill in MO). The infighting will be epic.
posted by iclfan2Beto is pretty terrible for Texas
Not just Texas.
BTW, what’s his non-fake name?
Pollsters are starting to pull predictions and backtrack. Not good for dems. Also news reports that polls were heavy early this morning. Not good for dems. Their voting base doesn't get up till noon.
posted by SpockPollsters are starting to pull predictions and backtrack. Not good for dems. Also news reports that polls were heavy early this morning. Not good for dems. Their voting base doesn't get up till noon.
I love how you go over-the-top to make sure everyone knows you're a fucking idiot at all times.
posted by SpockPollsters are starting to pull predictions and backtrack. Not good for dems. Also news reports that polls were heavy early this morning. Not good for dems. Their voting base doesn't get up till noon.
Nope. I'm still seeing the Ds have an 85% chance of taking the House and the Rs a 85% chance of keeping the Senate.
posted by ptown_trojans_1Nope. I'm still seeing the Ds have an 85% chance of taking the House and the Rs a 85% chance of keeping the Senate.
Is there reason to believe that these predictions will be any more accurate than those of two years ago?
posted by queencitybuckeyeIs there reason to believe that these predictions will be any more accurate than those of two years ago?
Yeah. They are not predictive, they are probabilistic. 538 has been pretty damn clear that just because it is 85% does not mean it is certain. A 15% chance of Rs keeping the House is not outside the realm of possibility. That is one of the many lessons of 2016 and that people took 85% to mean it is going to happen, when in reality, that 15% did occur.
posted by ptown_trojans_1Yeah. They are not predictive, they are probabilistic. 538 has been pretty damn clear that just because it is 85% does not mean it is certain. A 15% chance of Rs keeping the House is not outside the realm of possibility. That is one of the many lessons of 2016 and that people took 85% to mean it is going to happen, when in reality, that 15% did occur.
IOW, when it goes against either or both of these probabilities, they can claim not to have been wrong.
posted by queencitybuckeyeIOW, when it goes against either or both of these probabilities, they can claim not to have been wrong.
Well, in a probabilistic model you are not right or wrong, you are just giving the odds. It's like Vegas and gambling.
I'll just say too:
