posted by fish82That's pretty close to the odds he gave Hillary of winning.
FWIW
That is true. But, they were the ones that gave Trump the best case of winning. Don't take it as gospel, just a model that uses national and local polls in giving snapshots of different races.
I use it along with Cook.
posted by ptown_trojans_1Five Thirty Eight released their House Forecasting Model. They give Ds a 74.3% of taking the House. They give a nice breakdown of each house race and projections. They assume that the historical trends of the President's party in office loses seats at the midterm and given Trump's low approval rating, it brings a wave. They look into each race and assign a probability based on polling. They also have five big take aways that in order to do this the Ds must turn out and beat the popular vote by a wide margin.
Interesting for sure and a good way to track each race going into November.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-big-picture-in-the-race-for-the-house/
Trumps low approval rating???????? Wasnt he higher than almost every other president in the past 20 years at this point?
posted by SpockTrumps low approval rating???????? Wasnt he higher than almost every other president in the past 20 years at this point?
Uhhh no.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
posted by ptown_trojans_1That is true. But, they were the ones that gave Trump the best case of winning. Don't take it as gospel, just a model that uses national and local polls in giving snapshots of different races.
I use it along with Cook.
There were other polls that gave Trump a better chance of winning, but not as well known as 538. I suspect the dems will take the house, especially since it seems like they are not embracing their full retard socialist side in the primaries.
posted by SpockTrumps low approval rating???????? Wasnt he higher than almost every other president in the past 20 years at this point?
lolwut?
LOL spock. Trump’s approval rating is just above Nixon’s after watergate.
posted by fish82That's pretty close to the odds he gave Hillary of winning.
FWIW
I think the GOP will hold the house if the Russians give them the Democrats' turnout models again.
I actually wouldn't mind if the dems took over the house with a republican president. It does give a nice balance between awful and bad. But that's with the caveat of not having progressives fully take over the dem party, which they are teetering on doing right now IMO.
posted by fish82That's pretty close to the odds he gave Hillary of winning.
FWIW
But then the Dems can impeach Trump and guarantee his election in 2020....history repeating itself.
posted by ptown_trojans_1Five Thirty Eight released their House Forecasting Model. They give Ds a 74.3% of taking the House. They give a nice breakdown of each house race and projections. They assume that the historical trends of the President's party in office
Good .........bodes well. They obviously still don't understand what happened in 2016.
Submit current thoughts now.
Dems just blew their chips on Kavenaugh. They have no chance of getting power back
Kavanaugh clusterfuck clearly throwing a wrench in the "blue wave." Dems were already fired up but now GOP is.
All I know is that I'm not giving any credence to polls. Still. Let the chips fall where they may.
I still stick to the Ds take the House and the Rs either grow or keep the same seats in the Senate.
The latest numbers out of Tenn. and North Dakota are not good for the Ds. Also, it is possible that NJ flips from blue to red.
posted by ptown_trojans_1I still stick to the Ds take the House and the Rs either grow or keep the same seats in the Senate.
The latest numbers out of Tenn. and North Dakota are not good for the Ds. Also, it is possible that NJ flips from blue to red.
My thoughts as well.
Just looking at local Ohio congressional races (on fivethirtyeight). Steve Chabot (R) was a pretty big underdog to Aftab Pureval (D) last week, now he's the favorite. I'm not in his district, and likely wouldn't vote for him if I was, but it's interesting to see the odds flip. My district is heavily in favor of the R incumbent (Brad Wenstrup) who I actually will be voting for.
Sticking with the GOP holding the HOR by 4-6 seats, and gaining a seat in the Senate.
posted by fish82Sticking with the GOP holding the HOR by 4-6 seats, and gaining a seat in the Senate.
Need to be a bigger change than the current trend. The Kavanaugh hearings "helped" the GOP, but still all indications are that they will lose the HOR but keep the Senate. It's something like 75% chance they lose the HOR according to 538.
posted by jmogNeed to be a bigger change than the current trend. The Kavanaugh hearings "helped" the GOP, but still all indications are that they will lose the HOR but keep the Senate. It's something like 75% chance they lose the HOR according to 538.
Again, I'll say people are so polarized - and angry - that turnout is a complete guess. These models always come down to their predictions on turnout (or at least its distribution), and I don't think any past results (they usually rely heavily on what the last midterm or two looked like) will be indicative.
posted by gutAgain, I'll say people are so polarized - and angry - that turnout is a complete guess. These models always come down to their predictions on turnout (or at least its distribution), and I don't think any past results (they usually rely heavily on what the last midterm or two looked like) will be indicative.
Yeah, with all the Kavanaugh kerfluffle, the Rs are the current leader in the "WE'RE OUTRAGED AND GOING TO THE POLLS!!!!" crowd, but there's a full month before elections. But all it takes is one incident painted a certain way (Kav gets voted through, Trump makes public ass of self again, etc.) to reverse things. So, at the least, October won't be dull, since both sides will be working to make sure they fire the last bullet before polls open.
