gibby08
Posts: 1,581
Feb 27, 2010 5:51pm
F
fan_from_texas
Posts: 2,693
Feb 27, 2010 5:55pm
Yes, let's hope. Some concern remains about a double-dip, but I think we're probably on the upswing.
tk421
Posts: 8,500
Feb 27, 2010 6:00pm
Not likely. I don't give a crap how much the economy grows if I can't find a job.
dwccrew
Posts: 7,817
Feb 27, 2010 6:19pm
We'll see. I think it's positive, but unemployment is still very high. GDP may be growing, but people are still out of work.
gibby08
Posts: 1,581
Feb 27, 2010 6:21pm
crew....almost every economist I've heard has said the job market will start to rebound by the 3rd quarter of 2010
dwccrew
Posts: 7,817
Feb 27, 2010 6:23pm
I have also read this as well, but I think these will be temporary jobs due to the Stimulus (construction on highways, etc.). I'm speaking of permanent jobs. Also, these are only predictions, we'll see how accurate they are.gibby08 wrote: crew....almost every economist I've heard has said the job market will start to rebound by the 3rd quarter of 2010
S
Swamp Fox
Posts: 2,218
Feb 27, 2010 6:24pm
It took quite a while to get in the mess we're in and I don't think that any reasonable person thought that the process of recovery would be quick or simple. We have to do a little "hanging in there". Things will get better.
tk421
Posts: 8,500
Feb 27, 2010 6:26pm
As much as the Dems and Obama would love to spin this as a sign the economy is recovering due to their watch, I can find just as many news stories that say otherwise. Home sales falling, consumer confidence down, jobless claims up, etc, etc. Not to mention the millions of Americans without jobs that aren't going to improve this year or the next.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/24/AR2010022402108.html?hpid=sec-business
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-tapers-off-in-february-2010-02-26
http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/25/news/economy/initial_claims/index.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/24/AR2010022402108.html?hpid=sec-business
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-tapers-off-in-february-2010-02-26
http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/25/news/economy/initial_claims/index.htm
Glory Days
Posts: 7,809
Feb 27, 2010 7:38pm
yup, in the same boat here.tk421 wrote: Not likely. I don't give a crap how much the economy grows if I can't find a job.
J
jmog
Posts: 6,567
Feb 27, 2010 7:45pm
Unemployment rate always lags behind GDP, so if the GDP is coming back the Unemployment will be 6 months to a year behind.
IggyPride00
Posts: 6,482
Feb 27, 2010 8:13pm
As we have seen in the past decade, an increasing GDP does not necessarily correspond with job creation the way it used to. We have been living in the world of the jobless recovery for a while now, as the GDP grew significantly from 2000 to 2010, and we saw a net jobs loss for the decade.Unemployment rate always lags behind GDP, so if the GDP is coming back the Unemployment will be 6 months to a year behind.
Companies have gotten very good at squeezing every last drop of productivity out of existing employees rather than hiring new ones. That is somewhat of a departure from the past, and could be more the model moving forward.
I could be wrong, but I think the jobless recovery(a total misnomer if there ever was one) is going to become the new norm rather than exception.
G
Gobuckeyes1
Posts: 497
Feb 27, 2010 8:41pm
I know this is little consolation for those out of work in the short term, but as the baby boomers retire over the next 10 years, the demand for workers to replace them should increase.
As was previously mentioned, it took a long time to get in this mess, its going to take a long time to get out of it.
As was previously mentioned, it took a long time to get in this mess, its going to take a long time to get out of it.
dwccrew
Posts: 7,817
Feb 27, 2010 9:22pm
Actually I think as the Boomers retire their jobs will be abolished. With the younger generation being much more proficient in computer skills, etc. multiple jobs will be consilidated into one. It's already happening at many companies and will continue.Gobuckeyes1 wrote: I know this is little consolation for those out of work in the short term, but as the baby boomers retire over the next 10 years, the demand for workers to replace them should increase.
As was previously mentioned, it took a long time to get in this mess, its going to take a long time to get out of it.
F
fan_from_texas
Posts: 2,693
Mar 5, 2010 11:48am
Good points. Retiring boomers will open up jobs for younger generations. I'm not sure if that's all positive, though, as the costs of retiring boomers will be enormous.Gobuckeyes1 wrote: I know this is little consolation for those out of work in the short term, but as the baby boomers retire over the next 10 years, the demand for workers to replace them should increase.
As was previously mentioned, it took a long time to get in this mess, its going to take a long time to get out of it.
C
cbus4life
Posts: 2,849
Mar 5, 2010 11:50am
At least in my field, that isn't the case, thankfully.dwccrew wrote:Actually I think as the Boomers retire their jobs will be abolished. With the younger generation being much more proficient in computer skills, etc. multiple jobs will be consilidated into one. It's already happening at many companies and will continue.Gobuckeyes1 wrote: I know this is little consolation for those out of work in the short term, but as the baby boomers retire over the next 10 years, the demand for workers to replace them should increase.
As was previously mentioned, it took a long time to get in this mess, its going to take a long time to get out of it.
Belly35
Posts: 9,716
Mar 5, 2010 1:18pm
………… NAIRU ……………
Interesting reading: There is a connection between economic growth and unemployment. There is a connection between growth and inflation.
http://samvak.tripod.com/nm042.html
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/NAIRU.HTM
.............. 36K Job Lost and 9.7 Umeployement Rate ................
vs
.................... Economy grows 5.9% .....................
Interesting reading: There is a connection between economic growth and unemployment. There is a connection between growth and inflation.
http://samvak.tripod.com/nm042.html
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/NAIRU.HTM
.............. 36K Job Lost and 9.7 Umeployement Rate ................
vs
.................... Economy grows 5.9% .....................
Q
QuakerOats
Posts: 8,740
Mar 5, 2010 2:37pm
3.8% of the 5.9% was inventory replenishment. Q1 '10 will be much slower overall.
And, the U6 alternative gauge of the unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 16.8% from 16.5%.
Meanwhile, Obama/Pelosi/Reid only want to ram through socialized medicine which is anti-jobs ...................................... Change we can believe in.......................
And, the U6 alternative gauge of the unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 16.8% from 16.5%.
Meanwhile, Obama/Pelosi/Reid only want to ram through socialized medicine which is anti-jobs ...................................... Change we can believe in.......................
HitsRus
Posts: 9,206
Mar 5, 2010 3:49pm
QuakerOats wrote: 3.8% of the 5.9% was inventory replenishment. Q1 '10 will be much slower overall.
And, the U6 alternative gauge of the unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 16.8% from 16.5%.
This.
Because of the recession, companies cut inventory to bare minimums. The fourth qtr saw most rebuilding depleted inventories which reflects the larger part of the growth. This was not sales or job creation.
I personally experienced this....we are adding a small addition to our building...and it took forever for stuff to come in.
Belly35
Posts: 9,716
Mar 5, 2010 3:50pm
You don't see me jumping for joy ... good news my ass this is just a blip in the radar be for the truth comes out...........QuakerOats wrote: 3.8% of the 5.9% was inventory replenishment. Q1 '10 will be much slower overall.
And, the U6 alternative gauge of the unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 16.8% from 16.5%.
Meanwhile, Obama/Pelosi/Reid only want to ram through socialized medicine which is anti-jobs ...................................... Change we can believe in.......................
I live in the real world and I see nothing happening or good that tells me better things are around the corner.
You're correct about inventory both of my business have had to inventory up last month. Because we held off so we could order big for addition discount and saving on shipping.